In the grand scheme of things, FanGraphs is closer to a blog than a newspaper. We usually try to make our content look more like articles than posts. We even have a style guide that directs us not to speak in the first person (pretty sure nobody listens to that rule). Today, you’re reading a blog post. I hope that’s ok with you. If not, get over yourself.

This is the story of last Tuesday, January 31…

Read the rest of this entry »

For years now, we have attempted to better understand the seems-impossible-to-predict metric we all know and love, batting average on balls in play, or BABIP for us nerds who like acronyms. As far back as 2008, we have tried, tried, and tried again to come up with an xBABIP equation strong enough to play with the other xMetrics. Two years ago, I developed what was at the time, the best we had. Then, we were given a gift in the form of data collected by Baseball Info Solutions, some of which Alex Chamberlain used to improve my equation and make it easier to calculate. Then Andrew Perpetua developed a Statcast driven xBABIP. Finally, Alex updated his equation by tacking on a seasonal constant.

Read the rest of this entry »

Chat transcript is below!

Read the rest of this entry »

The Ottoneu cut deadline marks the end of the 2016 season. It was a successful year with each of my three squads taking on very different roles. There was one champion, one rebuild against a powerhouse team, and one new league designed with incentives to keep everyone invested over the long hall. However, now that February 1 is here (the Otto-Neu Year), I want to take some time to run through some resolutions that I have for the upcoming season. Hopefully they will be helpful to any newcomers to the format, or grizzly old vets in entering year 5+.

I resolve to meet my game caps

This past year, I met my game caps in 2 of my 3 leagues. For 2017, my goal is to meet each of my game caps in each Ottoneu league I play. Even if I can’t make the cap, I always tend to be close, but that isn’t the case for all owners. If you peruse through Ottoneu points leagues, you will find owners in each league to do not make the cap, often by large margins. Maybe meeting game caps is never something you have had an issue with, but for me, it can be a more daunting process than it originally appears. For reference, the format features the following starting lineup: Read the rest of this entry »

When you watch football, it’s very clear by body type, what position a player likely plays. Are you 6’5 and 320lbs? That’s more than likely a lineman. 5’9 and 210 lbs? Chances are, you’re a running back. Baseball is a lot different – Marcus Stroman (5’8, 180lbs) and Chris Young (6’10, 255lbs) play the exact same position. Chris Sale (6’6, 180lbs) and Bartolo Colon (5’11, 285 lbs (sure… I believe you)) also play the same position. There aren’t too many times on the gridiron where a 100lb weight difference will line up against each other!

The point I’m trying to make, is with such huge variances in body shapes and sizes, there are many different ways to skin a cat. Marco Estrada (of 89 mph fastball fame) was massively more successful than Joe Kelly (punching a fastball in the high 90s, and over 100 mph). Pitchers of all shapes and sizes (of body and fastball) find ways to succeed. The question is – when you don’t have the clearly obvious advantage of that big fastball, how do you get major league hitters out?

Read the rest of this entry »

Perhaps you’ve seen this tweet at some point over the offseason. It surfaced most recently about 10 days ago via Dave Cameron in his piece about the Dodgers’ intentional inefficiency.

Andrew Friedman: “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughTimes) December 6, 2016

What Friedman says absolutely applies to fantasy baseball. Especially auction drafts. Every year, I see people saying “I’m going to stick to my values.” I’ve been that guy too. Way back when I was the only person in the room with advanced analysis, sticking to my values was a winning strategy. Now it’s a good way to lose every key player.

Read the rest of this entry »

Prospect list season is in full swing. Our Eric Longenhagen is knocking out his team lists. Keith Law has just finished his top 100 and team lists. Baseball America is done with their team rankings and is working on their prospect annual. And MLB.com just released their position rankings and top 100. The MLB.com’s top 100 list intrigues me the most. Since it provides scouting grades, it can be used to project a hitter’s fantasy value.

Earlier this offseason, I had a series on using prospect grades to project MLB talent.  While Field and Arm grades help to keep some players playing, defense doesn’t count in fantasy leagues. By comparing a hitter’s Bat, Power, and Speed grades I was able to come up with an overall 20-80 fantasy grade and projected full season stats. These values aren’t close to the final say in player values. They are just an input to be used with scouting reports, normal projections, and other systems like KATOH. Read the rest of this entry »

2/2/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

HUGE UPS TO AZIZ OF WESTEROS HISTORY FOR CLEANING UP THE OUT-OF-SYNC AUDIO ON THIS ONE. Btw, if you like Game of Thrones, I’m pretty sure that’s what Aziz’s handle refers to (I don’t watch the show) and he has a site and pod related to the show!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (3:40)

• What is Jason Heyward doing to improve on his ‘16?
  • Eno’s piece

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Carlos Martinez extension
• Brandon Moss to KC (we discussed it, but I want your thoughts)
• Lucas Giolito spin rate

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

• Minnesota Twins
  • How does Brian Dozier follow up ‘16?
  • Better Investment this year: Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton?
  • Does Glen Perkins reclaim the closer’s role?
  • What’s your Jose Berrios outlook after the ugly ‘16?
  • Favorite Targets: Berrios
  • Stayaways: Max Kepler
  • Off-the-Radar: Trevor May
  • Impact Prospects? Daniel Palka, Adalberto Mejia

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Well, I’m back for another year in the Fangraphs Staff II Ottoneu league. This’ll be year six, but I’m still looking to regain the magic that allowed me to finish third back in the first season, when I was leading heading into the final stretch before fading due to innings limits.

Here’s how I’ve finished in the meantime:

2012 – third (of 12)
2013 – sixth
2014 – 10th
2015 – fourth
2016 – ninth

When we started out, I had a weird mix of good players, prospects and a few guys who put together really nice seasons — like Jason Kubel and Josh Willingham. I’ve had enough of those prospects pan out to have a really nice base for a good team moving forward, but I haven’t been able to quite seal the deal.

I thought my team was just a couple closers away from being very good last season, so I spent big money on Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. It didn’t so much pan out. A.J. Pollock got hurt and missed a huge chunk of the season, and even some of the smaller pieces I added completely fell flat and were no help at all — like Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario and Byungho Park. It’s not that I had huge expectations for any of those guys, but Escobar has a lot of position flexibility and I was hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with one of the other two. I know Rosario has terrible plate discipline, but he’s got some pop and a good hit tool. It just didn’t work out. Similarly, Park has a ton of swing and miss in his profile, but at least for a while there his power made him useful. Read the rest of this entry »

So far in my Tout Wars preparation series, I’ve documented the league’s draft tendencies and the stats needed to win. Today, I’ll create the framework for player pricing. Along the way, I will show how there is no position scarcity except with catcher. At least for this league

Completing this step brings the preparation is laborious, but necessary. Once it’s done, I can spend most of my time evaluating players and their projected playing time.

For evaluating players, I utilize the Standings Gain Points (SGP) method. I previously outlined the procedure and it‘s the same method Larry Schechter recommends in his book, Winning Fantasy Baseball. Normally, this procedure is fairly straight forward since I’ve historically used three-year average values. Last year’s offensive explosion complicates the math. With more offense available, home runs, Runs, and RBIs become less important. Predicting 2017’s run scoring environment is impossible so I won’t for now. I feel I need to use a weighted average system with 2016 getting the most weight but I am just not sure how much to weight them. To get the process started, I will use the average standings from 2014 to 2016 for this work.

Read the rest of this entry »