Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 3rd, 2017

Paul Sporer: Let’s chat!!

Cy: Peraza: do you think he gets 500+ ab’s?

Paul Sporer: I’m not a HUGE Peraza guy, but I think he’s close. 480-520 range

Gest: Is there an order to your team-by-team breakdowns on the podcast?

Paul Sporer: No, not really

Cy: I know you’re super high on Colorado guys (pun intended), is Jon Gray included in that?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! My favorite SP out there. I’m taking him early double-digit rounds which is high for a Rockie

Bored: Do you think the news that Chris Davis‘ played with a dislocated thumb last season means there is a little bounce back for him this year?

Paul Sporer: Certainly could be. Seems he always has an excuse behind poor play and I’m not even saying that entirely to shade. Remember the one down year was because he didn’t have exemption to use Adderall. He got it back and then went off. I personally don’t mess with him bc of the volatility and because his power is no longer scarce

Jared: Brad Johnson recently wrote about how being rational in an auction is basically a death sentence for your season. A few years ago I went the Ultra-Value route, bidding no higher than $1 under what I had a player valued at. Finished 4th of 12. What strategy have you found the most success with?

Paul Sporer: I often employ the “get my guys” strategy. Obviously you have to do it within reason, but I’m not afraid of going harder for players I really believe in. So it’s a more proactive auction strategy

Zigs: Maikel Franco posted 25 hr and 88 RBI last year with no one else around him. With the emergence of Odubel and the signings of Saunders and Kendrick could you see 32+hr 100rbi .345OBP? Have to love his low strikeout rate for OBP leagues.

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Francophile, but not so much bc I think players around him will elevate him, but rather bc I believe in his talent. They should be a bit better, which of course helps the R/RBI, but I think he’ll make improvements regardless of that

Jays Fan: Hi Paul. Hope all is well. Starting pitching will be ever so scarce in my AL-only keeper league this season, so I was quite pleased to be heading into the season with my $25 Verlander. That is until I was offered a $1 Gary Sanchez for him today. I’m torn on what to do. I don’t want to struggle finding SPs I’m comfortable with at the auction, yet I love shiny new toys like Sanchez so very much. Please help.

Paul Sporer: That’s a really fair deal that I think you have to strongly consider (as you are). In the end, if you can’t get yourself to be comfortable with a pool of SPs that you think could pop, you might have to pass

Tony: As it stands right now, Mazara, Kiermaier and Holliday are three guys I’m gunning for at my draft as I expect that they will be undervalued by my leaguemates. How would you rank them and do you like them all to deliver next season?

Paul Sporer: I like all three actually and find myself with a little star by them as well. Maz has the huge upside, Kiermaier can do a bit of everything while having his PT guaranteed by defense, and I think Holliday flourishes as this year’s former superstar Yankee (they always have at least one). Think it’s KK, Maz, Holliday for me

Hannah Hochevar: Give your Chance affiliation, are you into D.R.A.M.’s similar-sounding Broccoli? I cannot get enough…

Paul Sporer: Broccoli was dominating my Twitch streams in the summer. It has been moved down the list, but yes I dig it

Shady: As it stands right now in my NL-only league, 9 of the 15 tentative closers will be kept going into the auction. There are at least 6 teams going into the auction without closers, and a few with one already looking to add more. Given the past trends in my league, it looks like the cost of the available closers will go through the roof at the auction. Do I overpay big time for one of the available guys, or stock up on 3-4 handcuffs and hope for early season injuries?

Paul Sporer: Depends who is available. I don’t mind paying for stud closers, but I’m not going to overpay the mid and backend tiers. If a Jansen is available, fork over the huge cash

Bones: Pick two of these four in anew 11-team, 5×5, $280-auction league: $35 Sale, $13 Tanaka, $11 Salazar or $5 Hill. Also, I’m an idiot and asked you about Milton Bradley in a recent chat…I meant Jackie Bradley.

Paul Sporer: What’s ol’ Milton up to these days? I’d take Tanaka and Hill, btw.

Rosy Cheeks: Do you expect 2017 Jose Ramirez to have a better, worse or similar year to this past season?

Paul Sporer: Similar.

Hyon Realy: I currently own Ryon Healy @ $9 in my 11-team, $260 AL-only league, and I’m not sure what to do with him going into 2017. I don’t think many of my league members will target him at the auction, so there’s a good chance he could fall through the cracks and be scooped far cheaper. I definitely want him on my team next season, so do I simply keep him at $9 or roll the dice and hope to save a few bucks (obviously risking that he might go for more than $9 if I underestimated my competitors)?

Paul Sporer: I’m obviously a big fan, but $9 saps a lot of the upside out of him so I’d throw him back. Worst case is you pay another $9 if gets helium and you really love him. Otherwise, you can prob get him for $6-8

Mark: Does Jesse Winker get a meaningful opportunity in Cincinnati this year?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can see it. I don’t see Scott Schebler blocking anyone

Chaco Chicken: What’s the value of a healthy Josh Reddick in Hou?

Paul Sporer: He’s a platoon bat who could go .280-20-7

Mark: In a fantasy league that heavily weighs batting average, is Aledmys Diaz for Devon Travis a fair trade?

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s fair

Blake: Hey Paul! I’ve got a Keeper question for my 10 team league with extra categories of OPS, hitter Ks, K/BB and L’s. Keeping Betts, Rizzo, CSeager, Miggy and need to pick one of the following for my 5th and final keeper: Polanco @ $15, Urias @ $9, Moncada @ $6. We have $5/yr keeper salary inflation. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: 10 team makes it tough to keep Urias or Moncada, especially since your core is ready to win in ’17. I think I gotta go Polly.

Sable: What would you pay for Pablo Sandoval in an 11-team $260 AL-only league?

Paul Sporer: $6

Jay: As a general auction strategy, does it make sense to overpay for a quality catcher because of scarcity (keeper league with a lot of the top options already owned) or just allocate money to be better everywhere else and live with an average/below average catcher?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, no. I’ll pay up at scarce full-time positions, but very few catchers put in 600+ PA

Rich: Standard scoring, 12 team, keep forever two of the following J. Ross, D. Norris, R Ray, Folty, Giolito Thanks

Paul Sporer: Interesting group. I’m keen on Folty and not ready to completely give up on Giolito, but I don’t think I can keep either in a 12-teamer. Love Norris and could really see some advancement this year, but his 69 IP last yr are MLB-high so it’s Ray and Ross for me. I’m not as hyped on Ray as most, but 200 Ks doesn’t just happen.

Guest: FanGraphs as a whole is really down on the A’s and the direction they’re going. If you could make 2 or 3 moves right now to get them “on track” what would they be?

Paul Sporer: Sign Josh Donaldson to a long ter…. oh wait

Paul Sporer: Rebuild Sonny Gray’s value then trade him, don’t waste ABs on Yonder Alonso, and trade every solid piece in that bullpen this July.

Arj: Considering Nomar Mazara’s 2nd half lull, what would you need to see from him this year in order to comfortably confirm he is the advanced hitter that initial sample projected him to be?

Paul Sporer: Some improvements vL and working his way back out of pitcher’s counts vR&L. It was an impressive age-21 season and growth isn’t linear so we won’t necessarily see a surge, but the I’m still investing in case he does take 2-3 steps

Chaco Chicken: Of the ended the season injured pitcher crowd, who do you think looks best to take a step forward; Nola, Matz, Velasqeuz, Walker, or McCullers?

Paul Sporer: I have them all ranked within about a 10 pitcher range so it’s hard to be definitive on one. I’d say Matz if pressed

Don’t Romine Me: Good place to do mock drafts this early in the year?

Paul Sporer: Fantrax.com, Couchmanagers.com

Arj: Do you think you’ll have more shares of Keon Broxton or Domingo Santana this year?

Paul Sporer: Probably Broxton, but if my speed is good at that point in the draft, I’ll go Dom

Brad: 12 team NL only dynasty. Add a year but adds $5 in salary for these Cinci pitchers – Desclafani $8 and/or Finnegan $2 or let it ride for 2017?

Paul Sporer: Let it ride!

Paul Sporer: These are the exact kind of guys I’m vehemently against giving contracts to in auction leagues. Their value is the low price so adding $5 cuts it substantially

Pedro Cerrano : Over/Under 150 IP for Daniel Norris this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m going to say over, though admittedly there’s some hope baked into the answer. I really like Norris and think we could see some advancement. Needs to stay healthy

Maxamuz: 2017 Baseball Survey – https://goo.gl/forms/Mtk733D28jkjnlzB3

Paul Sporer: ^^ If yall wanna participate ^^

Lima Time: Do you play OOTP?

Paul Sporer: I do. I didn’t play as much this year bc a lot of my gaming time went to MLB The Show, but OOTP is awesome, too

Pedro Cerrano : Why does Steamer seem to assume a league-wide power drop this year? Isn’t it more prudent to assume this is the new norm? Is that excluded from the algorithm or something?

Paul Sporer: I think assuming it’s the new norm based on one year (or 1+ years as it kinda got going in the 2H of ’15) kinda goes against projections which focus on recent history in bigger chunks (2-3 years)

Dago: Sullivan wrote Daniel Norris up. Drew comparisons to Paxton Are you in on him?

Paul Sporer: I think we’ve found our “Guy of the Chat”. Every week we have one guy who gets several inquiries. I know you asked before you saw what I was saying, but yes I’m in

Guy Incognito: Paul – I’m genuinely curious – why does FG ignore QS stats? And do you personally find it more or less useful than Wins?

Paul Sporer: What do you mean ignore? It’s infinitely more useful than Ws only because Ws are entirely useless

Lunch: 20 reamer….Odubel $15 or Quintana $16 as my last keeper?

Paul Sporer: Odie!

Chaco Chicken: How much do you know about Thoracic outlet surgery and what does that mean for Harvey’s value this season?

Paul Sporer: Not much, it’s still relatively new and the results thus far haven’t been great which has me scared for Harvey. We could be in the nascent stages of this where it soon becomes as common at TJ, but until then I’m worried. I’m playing wait and see with Harvey

Mat : 10 team $260 only league. Can keep for this year only, need to drop 1. $32 Bryant, $32 Rizzo, $14 Pederson, $13 Piscotty, $1 Dahl, $4 Turner, $4 Baez, $21 Cueto, $1 Oh

Paul Sporer: Few lobby harder for Joc than myself, but I’m throwing him back. I think worst case is you pay $15 at auction

hungryG: Ronald Acuna, Leody Taveras or Luis Robert in a dynasty prospect draft?

Paul Sporer: Acuna, though I’m admittedly barely familiar with this group

Paul Sporer: Deeeeep prospects aren’t my strongest area

Dabo Dabo Sweeney: Do you see Alex Reyes starting the year out in the Red Birds rotation? What type of line do you see him putting up this year if you had to guess? and you HAVE too…

Paul Sporer: I haven’t heard anything to the contrary so I think they do, but I could see him getting a midseason break in the bullpen so he’s ready for a postseason push as StL no doubt expects to compete this year. I see a 3.75ish ERA/1.40ish WHIP with tons of Ks.

Hector: If you had to choose from drafting Harper or Machado (in my league we consider OBP/BB in addition to the other general offensive categories) for your first pick who would it be, and why? I am going for a 4-peat, if that makes any difference. My second pick would be Joey Votto.

Paul Sporer: It’s Harper for me. That upside of ’15 wasn’t a fluke. Ya he fell back last year, but I think ’15 type numbers still remain very plausible in any given year

Crow: Healy or Sandoval?

Paul Sporer: Healy

Pedro Cerrano : How does Tim Anderson’s speed tool compare to Billy Hamilton? Is he a sneaky source of SBs 10 rounds later?

Paul Sporer: It’s a few grades lower. Anderson is probably 60-65 whereas Hamilton is honestly a 90 on a 20-80 scale

Carl: Is Wacha relegated to the bullpen this year? Seems like that would take away any fantasy value…

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, no

Pedro Cerrano : Brent Honeywell or Luke Weaver for this year?

Paul Sporer: Weaver. I don’t think Honeywell pitches meaningful IP in the majors this year. He’s 22 with no AAA under his belt

the real robert person : NL ONLY / 12 Teams / $260: put in order Broxton $15, Joc, $13, D. Santana $13 AL ONLY / 12 Teams / $260: put in order J. Dyson $15, Bird $10, Rodon $13, Stroman $6 (i’m keeping very good pitching already)

Paul Sporer: joc-brox-dom, stro-bird-rodon-dyson

MetsFanInUtah: 13 team, $300 budget. Got $27 Lester, $14 verlander, $18 degrom, $6 Duffy, $6 r hill, $8 Paxton. SP is super thin at this draft. It’s kershaw, strasburg, Cole and then falls off. Would you look to flip Lester and free up salary, or stand pat and draft a few upside arms to fill it out? My offense is pretty loaded, but I’m only bringing about $85 to auction

Paul Sporer: If you can get fair value for Lester while saving some money, go for it, otherwise it’s OK to hold pat with this nice staff and your stacked O

Danny: More important indicator for Harvey this spring: command, velocity or something else?

Paul Sporer: Velo and hitting his pitch thresholds (like if he’s schedule for 35 pitches, let’s make sure he’s reaching or exceeding that… sometimes they’ll let a guy finish a batter and go a little over)

Kooter: Dynasty expectations for Wacha moving forward?

Paul Sporer: It’s all about health. This is a very talented arm, but health has been a problem. I still see a strong #3 when healthy

Dabo Dabo Sweeney: All else being equal in an OBP and SLG league..rank these: Pollock, J-Up, Yelich, JD Martinez?

Paul Sporer: They’re pretty close. It’s JD, Pollock, Yelich, Upton for me. JD’s OBP is close to the others and his SLG towers over them

Pedro Cerrano : Isn’t the hate on Dee Gordon a little strong? 300 BA, 50 SB, 100 runs all well within reason. He was a 2nd rounder a year ago….

Paul Sporer: He’s still going pick 45, so it’s not that severe. Didn’t love him as a 2nd rounder anyway so I’m more comfortable with this level

Bored: Thoughts on Chris Archer this year? Would you take him or Verlander in a Dynasty? I’m in my contention window (finished second the last three years)

Paul Sporer: I really like Archer. I wish there was more of a discount, tbh. i would take him over JV in a dynasty. They’re close enough in redraft that the dynasty aspect is enough to bring Archer ahead

Marko: Paul, you recommended Reyes, Weaver, and Wacha, but that’s three guys vying for one rotation slot in St. Louis, isn’t it?

Paul Sporer: How did I recommend Reyes? I just said I see him starting.

AlternativeFactMan: Paul: Gary Sanchez for Thor in a long term keeper. What side do you want to be on?

Paul Sporer: Oof, that’s tough. I usually lean hitter, but I’m going Thor.

IV: Hi Paul,

IV: Correction, Hi Paul, who do you like better in AL only (steals and Average needed): Lorenzo Cain or Adam Jones. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: With your needs, it’s Cain

Paul Sporer: Chat program being really weird today

kdallas: Assuming all $1 or $0 and a 7-player bench, in a keeper, which young OF do you like more? Renfoe, Tapia, Brinson, Meadows?

Paul Sporer: Renfroe

ChicagoCardinal: Arf Arf big dog. Ottoneu (fgpts) question: I’ve got 3 top 25 SP and a couple gambles, would you spread dollars around or buy one more stud? Greinke, Felix, Hamels all available.

Paul Sporer: I’d have no problem buying Greinke if he was reasonable, but I’d probably spread around with your situation

Judge Dredd: Hey Paul, any guesses as to what happens in the Atl bullpen this year?

Paul Sporer: If Jim Johnson is pitching like he was late last year, he could really hold it all year. He looked good

EA: Thoughs on trading G. Springer for Trea Turner.

Paul Sporer: I could do that

Pedro Cerrano : Keuchel or Steven Matz?

Paul Sporer: Matz

Pedro Cerrano : Am I crazy or is there not a huge difference between Joc Pederson and Ryan Schimpf?

Paul Sporer: You’re not crazy, but I think there’s a difference in potential. Pederson has room to grow whereas I think Schimpf is what he is – big pop, nothing else. Joc stole 30 bags per 600 PA in the minors. I still think he could bring some of that to the majors soon.

Pedro Cerrano : Why can’t we just admit that Yasiel Puig is what he is?

Paul Sporer: Because there has been injury reasons behind his less than impressive play and so the upside remains in play with any kind of health. Unfortunately, both hamstrings have been an issue and it could just be something that always lingers

George is Curious: Final keeper: $50 Altuve or $24 K. Davis?

Paul Sporer: What is your budget and league type?

JT: What’s your best guess as to Mazara’s peak batting line (BA, HR, RBI)?

Paul Sporer: .310-28-108

Chaco Chicken: In your many and sundry auction drafts have you found you stick to a fairly consistent allotment of $$$ between hitting and pitching? If so what’s the range, roughly?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m probably in that upper-60s hitting/low-30s pitching range. I don’t mind swimming in the bargain pool for SPs so it makes it easier to spend less for me

Jimbo: Most pre-season rankings have Stroman in the 30-40 range for SPs. If he can build on his 2nd half form of 2016 (2nd in xFIP, 1st in GB%, raising his K/9 to ~8.5), do you think he can be a top 25 pitcher?

Paul Sporer: Sure, he could. But I’m comfortable with the range he’s in right now

Joel: What kind of SP do you want back for BHam in a dynasty? My leaguemates seem to be really highly high on him. What should I ask?

Paul Sporer: If they value him high, shoot high!

Guy Incognito: I have Sanchez & Posey in a one-catcher league. Currently planning to play Posey at 1st (Morales as a backup/UTIL guy). Stand pat or trade one for a traditional 1B?

Paul Sporer: Trade! Never start two catchers. I know Posey is one of the few who regularly play 600+ PA, but it’s not worth the risk. Trade trade trade!

Guy Incognito: QS is literally the only stat that isn’t listed on player pages and I never see mentioned in write-ups.

Paul Sporer: Ah dang, well I always recommend using Fangraphs AND Baseball-Reference so it works well that BR has QS stuff

kdallas: What sort of production do you expect from Bregman?

Paul Sporer: I kinda buy his projections – .267/20/9 … if that’s what he’s being projected for, that means he’s got upside for more. I’m a Bregman fan for sure

berezin: rank in order: Manaea, Bundy, Z.Davies, J.Gray

Paul Sporer: Gray, Manaea, Bundy, Davies

Mike : When you shopping in the mid-teens rounds of a mixed league 10 or 12 team draft, gamble on a Harvey or Keuchel type as a number four SP, or hammer hitters, while filling out the rotation with upside guys late?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably do the latter and focus on the later tiers of SP. In a 10- or 12-teamer, you can replace them if they flop

Pedro Cerrano : I just don’t get the Addison Russell love (fantasy-wise, I mean). What am I missing?

Paul Sporer: 23 year old w/2 full seasons under his belt, went 21 HR/95 RBI last year. Big pedigree suggests more is on the way. just love the talent

Password is Taco: Can Brocail turn around Andrew Cashner?

Paul Sporer: Maybe, but I have to see something now. I bought on faith enough

tbone: I was offered a $7 Paxton for my $24 K. Davis in an 11-team $260 AL-only league. Pull the trigger or stand pat?

Paul Sporer: That’s a pretty fair deal. But I think I’m sticking with Davis.

IV: AL only 15 teams, who do you like better as back end SP depth? Gravemen or Martin Perez

Paul Sporer: I don’t have statistical backup, but I just feel like Perez could still make a jump. He’s still just 26.

Bored: Who is a second or third tier catcher you’re targeting this year?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-adp-thoughts-catcher-first-base/ Cameron Rupp, Tom Murphy

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get some lunch

Paul Sporer: So I’m going to cap it here. Thank you so much for coming out. As always, you can reach me on Twitter @sporer. If you play MLB The Show, I stream on Twitch at twitch.tv/psporer24 and you can ask questions like these in the chat. I’ll be streaming tonight if you want to come by!