Projecting MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects.
Prospect list season is in full swing. Our Eric Longenhagen is knocking out his team lists. Keith Law has just finished his top 100 and team lists. Baseball America is done with their team rankings and is working on their prospect annual. And MLB.com just released their position rankings and top 100. The MLB.com’s top 100 list intrigues me the most. Since it provides scouting grades, it can be used to project a hitter’s fantasy value.
Earlier this offseason, I had a series on using prospect grades to project MLB talent. While Field and Arm grades help to keep some players playing, defense doesn’t count in fantasy leagues. By comparing a hitter’s Bat, Power, and Speed grades I was able to come up with an overall 20-80 fantasy grade and projected full season stats. These values aren’t close to the final say in player values. They are just an input to be used with scouting reports, normal projections, and other systems like KATOH.
| Name | Position | MLB Rank | Hit | Power | Run | Field | Arm | Overall MLB Grade | Fantasy Grade | AVG | Runs | HR | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoan Moncada | 2B | 2 | 60 | 55 | 65 | 50 | 60 | 65 | 59 | 0.261 | 79 | 20 | 72 | 19 |
| Victor Robles | OF | 8 | 60 | 50 | 70 | 60 | 65 | 60 | 59 | 0.261 | 77 | 18 | 70 | 26 |
| Andrew Benintendi | OF | 1 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 65 | 58 | 0.265 | 80 | 20 | 73 | 11 |
| Lewis Brinson | OF | 18 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 57 | 0.255 | 80 | 22 | 73 | 15 |
| Corey Ray | OF | 30 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 57 | 0.258 | 79 | 20 | 71 | 15 |
| Gleyber Torres | SS | 3 | 65 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 56 | 0.265 | 80 | 20 | 73 | 8 |
| Cody Bellinger | 1B/OF | 13 | 55 | 65 | 45 | 70 | 55 | 60 | 56 | 0.258 | 83 | 24 | 75 | 6 |
| Anthony Alford | OF | 70 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 60 | 45 | 55 | 56 | 0.255 | 76 | 18 | 69 | 26 |
| Austin Meadows | OF | 10 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 56 | 0.261 | 77 | 18 | 70 | 15 |
| Clint Frazier | OF | 24 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 56 | 0.255 | 80 | 22 | 73 | 11 |
| Kyle Lewis | OF | 29 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 56 | 0.258 | 81 | 22 | 73 | 8 |
| Jorge Mateo | SS/2B | 47 | 50 | 40 | 80 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 0.255 | 71 | 14 | 65 | 45 |
| Kyle Tucker | OF | 35 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 0.261 | 79 | 20 | 72 | 8 |
| Manny Margot | OF | 23 | 60 | 40 | 70 | 70 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 0.261 | 73 | 14 | 66 | 26 |
| Leody Taveras | OF | 55 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 0.258 | 77 | 18 | 69 | 15 |
| Nick Senzel | 3B | 26 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 54 | 0.261 | 77 | 18 | 70 | 11 |
| Ian Happ | 2B/OF | 28 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 0.261 | 77 | 18 | 70 | 11 |
| Hunter Renfroe | OF | 42 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 54 | 0.255 | 80 | 22 | 73 | 8 |
| Eloy Jimenez | OF | 14 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 54 | 0.258 | 81 | 22 | 73 | 6 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | 34 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 45 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 0.258 | 81 | 22 | 73 | 6 |
| Tyler O’Neill | OF | 36 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 0.258 | 81 | 22 | 73 | 6 |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 4 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 54 | 0.261 | 75 | 16 | 68 | 15 |
| Amed Rosario | SS | 5 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 65 | 65 | 60 | 54 | 0.261 | 75 | 16 | 68 | 15 |
| Mickey Moniak | OF | 19 | 60 | 45 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 54 | 0.261 | 75 | 16 | 68 | 15 |
| Derek Fisher | OF | 83 | 45 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 40 | 55 | 54 | 0.251 | 78 | 20 | 70 | 15 |
| Bradley Zimmer | OF | 22 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 0.255 | 78 | 20 | 71 | 11 |
| Brendan Rodgers | SS/2B | 15 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 53 | 0.258 | 79 | 20 | 71 | 8 |
| Blake Rutherford | OF | 37 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 53 | 0.258 | 79 | 20 | 71 | 8 |
| Josh Bell | 1B/OF | 27 | 60 | 55 | 45 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 53 | 0.261 | 79 | 20 | 72 | 6 |
| Franklin Barreto | SS/2B | 52 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 45 | 60 | 55 | 53 | 0.258 | 77 | 18 | 69 | 11 |
| Alex Verdugo | OF | 61 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 55 | 53 | 0.261 | 77 | 18 | 70 | 8 |
| Aaron Judge | OF | 45 | 45 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 53 | 0.251 | 80 | 22 | 72 | 8 |
| Rafael Devers | 3B | 17 | 55 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 53 | 0.258 | 81 | 22 | 73 | 5 |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B/SS | 11 | 65 | 30 | 70 | 65 | 55 | 60 | 52 | 0.265 | 69 | 10 | 62 | 26 |
| Kevin Maitan | SS | 32 | 60 | 55 | 40 | 50 | 65 | 55 | 52 | 0.261 | 79 | 20 | 72 | 5 |
| Willy Adames | SS | 21 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 51 | 0.258 | 77 | 18 | 69 | 8 |
| Alex Kirilloff | OF | 98 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 51 | 0.258 | 77 | 18 | 69 | 8 |
| Isan Diaz | SS/2B | 65 | 50 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 51 | 0.255 | 78 | 20 | 71 | 6 |
| Willie Calhoun | 2B | 82 | 55 | 55 | 40 | 40 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 0.258 | 79 | 20 | 71 | 5 |
| Delvin Perez | SS | 91 | 50 | 40 | 65 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 0.255 | 71 | 14 | 65 | 19 |
| Raimel Tapia | OF | 90 | 60 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 0.261 | 73 | 14 | 66 | 11 |
| Jake Bauers | OF/1B | 76 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 0.258 | 77 | 18 | 69 | 6 |
| Dominic Smith | 1B | 63 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 0.261 | 77 | 18 | 70 | 5 |
| Jesse Winker | OF | 67 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 0.261 | 77 | 18 | 70 | 5 |
| Matt Chapman | 3B/SS | 100 | 45 | 60 | 40 | 70 | 75 | 55 | 50 | 0.251 | 80 | 22 | 72 | 5 |
| Richard Urena | SS | 94 | 50 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 49 | 0.255 | 74 | 16 | 67 | 11 |
| Jorge Alfaro | C | 72 | 45 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 70 | 55 | 49 | 0.251 | 78 | 20 | 70 | 6 |
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 7 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 65 | 60 | 60 | 49 | 0.261 | 73 | 14 | 66 | 8 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B/1B | 96 | 55 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 48 | 0.258 | 77 | 18 | 69 | 5 |
| Christian Arroyo | SS/3B/2B | 89 | 60 | 45 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 48 | 0.261 | 75 | 16 | 68 | 5 |
| Chance Sisco | C | 99 | 60 | 45 | 40 | 50 | 45 | 55 | 48 | 0.261 | 75 | 16 | 68 | 5 |
| Zack Collins | C | 81 | 55 | 55 | 30 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 47 | 0.258 | 79 | 20 | 71 | 3 |
| Nick Gordon | SS | 50 | 55 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 47 | 0.258 | 72 | 14 | 65 | 8 |
| Albert Almora | OF | 75 | 55 | 40 | 50 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 47 | 0.258 | 72 | 14 | 65 | 8 |
| Francisco Mejia | C | 40 | 55 | 45 | 40 | 50 | 70 | 55 | 46 | 0.258 | 74 | 16 | 67 | 5 |
| Kevin Newman | SS | 59 | 60 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 46 | 0.261 | 68 | 10 | 62 | 11 |
| Bobby Bradley | 1B | 95 | 45 | 60 | 20 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 44 | 0.251 | 80 | 22 | 72 | 2 |
| Carson Kelly | C | 39 | 50 | 50 | 20 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 41 | 0.255 | 76 | 18 | 69 | 2 |
Before getting to the risers and fallers, one key an owners must consider is the player’s distance from the majors. Blake Rutherford has a chance to be a nice major league hitter but he has yet to play past rookie level ball. For owners in dynasty leagues, feel free to acquire the most talented players and wait. For those in redraft leagues, make sure you have an understanding of the prospect’s MLB chances.
I’m not going to examine each player but I will go over players whose stock changed or I just find the player interesting.
- This rookie class is missing star talent. Moncada and Benintendi are good, but they aren’t Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Kris Bryant. Many top prospects have graduated to the majors in the past couple of years so expectations are down.
- Without defense counting, J.P. Crawford’s value drops significantly. He is a perfect example of why prospect lists shouldn’t be used without needed context. Kevin Newman, Ozzie Albies, and Nick Gordon are three other defense first prospects who take a hit in fantasy versus real life rankings.
- If you are needing steals, look for prospects getting the call with speed grades over 70. One player, I like going into next season, is the Padres’Manuel Margot. He has a clear path to the majors and will be on a non-contending team who let Wil Myers attempt 34 stolen bases last year.
- Three players who are ready to be productive regulars in 2017 are Cody Bellinger, Austin Meadows, and Clint Frazier. They just need the opportunity.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Lewis Brinson is a Brewer now.
He quit baseball?!?
Nicely done.
Brinson isn’t in the Rangers system, so I don’t think Mazara, Gomez, and Choo are going to effect his playing time all that much.
Since that paragraph got removed, we all look crazy now.
Brinson is in Milwaukee now (Lucroy trade). How does that alter his outlook?
Lewis Brinson was traded to the Brewers in the Jonathan Lucroy/Jeremy Jeffress trade last trading deadline.
While we’re at it…which side wins a Swanson for Glasnow trade? Standard 5×5, NL-only, dynasty.
Swanson, I will always take the hitter.
What if I told you I already have Turner, Kang (whatever!), Baez, Albies and Crawford? And Rodgers and Maitan coming whenever.
I mean, typically, I’m with you. I tried getting Reyes from him but got shot down.
You’re fine with getting Glasnow. I have the same issue (too many MI) in a deep dynasty league. I have been trying to move some for OF help.
Now I just feel like I was just waiting for a confirmation of my bias. Haha. Thank you, sir!
Thanks everyone for the Brinson update. Anyone else?
I mean, I could have done without the JP Crawford pessimism…
Love this. Any way to incorporate a players 2017 playing age into the table?
This looks like a great way to take out the defense-first prospects who don’t project to help fantasy teams all that much, but the projected stats being so similar (18-22 HRs, .255-.261 BAVG) for so many prospects kind of undermines the point of including them at all. There’s not enough differentiation there in my opinion. I know you included a caveat about them not being as accurate as individually constructed projections, but I would still adjust your outputs to create more difference. I would assign less homers to the guys below 60 power and assign a better average to the guys with a hit tool above 55.
The problem is that when I looked at the historical data, the numbers disagreed with there being more of a difference. One issue is that these projections are for their first seasons, not peak years which some prospect ranks are based on. Also, I think the prospect grades are too inflated.
I agree with you, but doing it this way gives every prospect a very similar projection which kind of defeats the point of this exercise. For instance, it’s very unlikely that Benintendi only hits .265 and fairly unlikely that he reaches 20 home runs. I think if you’re going to do something based on the prospect grades, which I agree are not only frequently inflated but also employ too few buckets, then you have to make those grades matter. By strictly modeling based on historical data what you’re really doing is noting how often the grades are wrong and therefore clumping everyone together in a similar fashion.
idk if it’s “unlikey” Benintnedi reaches 20hrs. Most scoring reports project him for 55-60 grade power which should easily translate to 20+ home runs
Benintendi has a line drive swing akin to Brandon Belt’s, who through four full and two partial seasons has yet to reach twenty homers himself. Andrew’s quality of contact is terrific, so if his launch angle becomes significantly higher then he’s certainly capable of crossing that threshold despite his relatively diminutive size, but I wouldn’t count on it happening.
The Belt comparison is good. I was able to use the Benintendi hype along with the Austin Meadows hype and Danny Duffy breakout to land Mike Trout and I’m never looking back. Love prospect hype as currency!
“…but the projected stats being so similar (18-22 HRs, .255-.261 BAVG) for so many prospects kind of undermines the point of including them at all.”
This. Everyone looks the same apart from stolen bases and some variety of skills score. It also projects everyone as being moderately successful the first year in, which obviously isn’t always the case. Of course, it would be hard to predict who would succeed dramatically versus fail miserably, but I was hoping the table would be more conclusive given the title of the article. As such, one could still say that the prospects that look like they’ll have power will have it, prospects who have speed will use it, etc without referencing the table at all. I liked the idea of the article, though.
Only analyzing Top 100 lists will leave out solid hitters at poor positions with poor defensive ratings also.
What makes you so sure Clint Frazier is ready? I’ve thought the opposite so was surprised to see him included in that group.
I t seems like the projections are way too tightly grouped to the mean. The range of BA is only .251 to .261. Every top prospect in baseball is going to hit for the same average, strange. A guy like Frazier who Ks a ton has to be expected to hit for lower average than Albies who’s primary tool is his hit ability. Either every to prospect in MLB is remarkable similar or the projection needs some work. The same can be said for the other stat categories.
In the Albies/Frazier example how can a difference in a grade and a half in hit tool (65 vs 50) only be .010 batting average points?
When I looked at the historical values, there was not much of a correlation between Hit grade (and combination) and AVG (R-squared of .08).
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minors-to-the-majors-hitter-prospect-grades-part-2/
The hit tool is tough to get right.
That’s pretty surprising that it is that low. I think people are forgetting that you are projecting Prospects based on subjective numbers from MLB.com.
Well, that tells you right there that tools grades are not useful predictors. If you fail to find a useful predictor, it’s better to have no projection than to project everyone to be average.
Is there a systemic explanation for the fact that no one is projected to hit an odd number of home runs?
The values I use are here. All happened to be even with my best fit line: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minors-to-the-majors-hitter-prospect-grades-part-2/
I guess that is my point, your regressing too much to the mean, IMO. It seems way off to project every top hitting prospect to hie essentially the same. It also defeats the purpose of this exercise if everyone hits .256. It suggests that hit tool grades should be ignored and we should just look at speed and power and we know that is a recipe for finding busts. If anything hit tool is undervalued in prospect analysis.
oops replied one thread too low, sorry
You can’t add precision to a bad signal…
If tools grades are not useful predictors, then this whole exercise become moot (I get the car).
Robles is projected to his 18 HR? Why?
Question for anybody who cares to answer this: would you drop Moncada in an AL-only league (10 teams) if he costs you $25 to keep?
It’s unusual, but in our AL-only league, the rule used to be (since changed) that you can’t add international players via the prospect draft—they must be acquired in the regular draft.
I acquired him (for a total rebuild job of a team) without checking the extensive rules that don’t allow you to drop players who are priced at $25 or more during the regular season to see if you can get him back more cheaply at one of the three FAAB auctions per week.
If he gets enough ABs this season, I’d have to pay $29 to keep him and those contact issues have me concerned.
I should add this: he’d only cost me $25 if I promote him from my prospect list—I could keep him there all season if I chose to do so.
I could put this off until next year and see if his contact rates improve.
to expensive this year to keep but the upside is still there.
I’d drop him and see if you can get him back at a cheaper price during the draft.
Since I know you and the league you’re talking about, I think you should point out it’s a hybrid AL + NL-only league to the other people.
When you have 20 owners in a draft it can drag on for a long time; there should be some guys who leave the draft early and thus you won’t be bidding against too many other owners (assuming of course, nobody nominates him early in the draft).
Minor request in the future, add a column with the Team for each player. Makes it easier for those of us building spreadsheets, but that don’t have every division covered for fantasy purposes in MLB. Thanks for the alternative look.
More of this.
Benintendi will definitely hit above the .265 he’s projected for here
On Bradley Zimmer…..anyone else getting a Jay Bruce feeling on this guy or is there something we haven’t seen yet from the hit tool?
It would be useful to add age on 2017 opening day, and current level.
If he hadn’t debuted last year, where would you guys have Tyler Austin? Still rookie eligible this year — if Bird power outage is sustained, if he gets reps at 1B/OF, his OFP will (continue) to take advantage of the short porch in RF…