I called it episode 421 by accident, my bad!

1/28/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day (1:10)

• Who pitches more IP: Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, or Scott Kazmir?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Logan Forsythe trade to LAD (6:00)
• Tyson Ross to TEX (11:30)
• Greg Holland to COL (14:45)
• Brett Anderson to CHC (17:40)
• Luis Valbuena to LAA (19:00)

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

• Pittsburgh Pirates (22:00)
  • Which of the three OF do you want most? (23:000)
  • What’s a full Josh Bell season look like? (31:00)
  • Does Tony Watson hold the CL role? (34:50)
  • Favorite Target: Ivan Nova (41:00)
  • Stayaway: Starling Marte (44:20)
  • Off-the-Radar: Alen Hanson (45:00)
  • Impact Prospects: Bell, Hanson (49:00)

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Chat transcript is below!

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The concept of surplus is never far from my mind. Last week I had an article detailing surplus and inflation, and how the two are correlated. I created a tool (the ottoneu Surplus Calculator) to analyze league and team keeper quality through the lens of surplus. I also posted a retrospective analysis on the official ottoneu community detailing how well keeper surplus predicts final standings (spoiler alert- pretty well, considering the analysis doesn’t include auction results or in season management). Today, I wanted to take a look at some data relating to how much surplus the top team in each FanGraphs points ottoneu league has.

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The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, NL Central here, and AL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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On Monday night, the Rays and Dodgers agreed to a deal sending Logan Forsythe to Los Angeles for pitching prospect Jose De Leon. Jeff Sullivan wrote about Forsythe’s and Brian Dozier’s similarities, and Dave Cameron analyzed the trade. The deal leaves a hole at the keystone position in Tampa Bay. Paul Sporer briefly touched on the deal opening up some playing time for Nick Franklin, “if they don’t bring someone else in.”

The current depth chart on the Rays’ team website which is projected by MLB.com shows Franklin atop the heap at second base, and Bill Chastain of MLB.com speculates Franklin and Tim Beckham “appear to be the most likely candidates to fill in at second base.” Chastain added that Rays senior vice president of baseball operations and general manager Erik Neander, “would not commit to one name.” Of the two names suggested, Franklin is the far more exciting option.

They also setup nicely for a platoon with the switch-hitting Franklin hitting right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching and Beckham fairing much better against southpaws than right-handed hurlers. With a clearer path to playing time, Franklin looks like a highly intriguing dart throw at a very minimal investment (NFBC’s draft data has Franklin’s ADP at 523.16 with a minimum pick of 451 and a maximum of 604), though, it’s important to note his position eligibility will be quite different around the industry. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m continuing to step through my Tout Wars auction prep. Last week, I broke down the league’s draft including the pitcher/hitter mix and some ownership trends. Today, I am going to examine the league’s final standings to see what it takes to win.

Every owner may try to win every category but that approach is completely unrealistic. I believe an owner should never win a category if they are behind in any other one. Every bit of distance between them and second place is a waste. Get to second in every category and then starting taking over the top spots. There is no reason for an owner to win RBIs by 50 if they’re 8th in Runs.

To find what it takes to win the Tour Wars league, here are the average points per category for the past three winners. As a reminder, the league is a standard 15-team 5×5 league with OBP instead of AVG.

Season: Average Points per Category (1st place = 15 points, 2nd place =14 points, …, 15th place = 1 point)
2014: 12.1
2015: 11.3
2016: 12.7
Average: 12.0

A fourth place finish in every category puts me in good shape to win while averaging third place almost guarantees me a win.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Max Kepler (OF/1B): It took almost seven years but the project from Germany finally established himself as a big league player. Kepler, signed at age 16, showed his raw power potential in 2016 by hitting a career high 17 home runs in 113 games for the Twins. But he also swung and missed a fair bit and produced an on-base percentage of just .309. He has some work to do against southpaws before he’ll realize his full potential. He produced an OPS of just .595 against them (compared to .792 vs righties) and his ISO also dipped considerably (.119 vs LHP, .219 vs RHP). Still, the Twins appear set to hand him the reins for right field in 2017. If he continues to develop (and avoid a platoon), Kepler could eventually slug 30+ home runs and even add 10-15 steals.

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With established players fleeing the south side of Chicago like their hair’s on fire — like any good rebuild, honestly — it’s a little strange that one of the vested veterans left standing is closer David Robertson.

If not perfect, Robertson has been perfectly useful over his first two seasons with the White Sox in the closer’s role. Despite the team only winning an average of 77 games in those first two seasons, Robertson has saved roughly half of those wins (71) with a decent 3.44 ERA (3.04 FIP), much more than a strikeout per inning (11.5 K/9) and a walk rate right around his career mark, though it was much better in year one (1.8 BB/9) than year two (4.6).

With $25 million left on his deal and the free-agent market barren for late-inning relievers not only now, but at the advent of the offseason, Robertson still presents a fairly decent value. It makes sense for the White Sox to cash that in for myriad reasons, not the least of which is the closer-in-waiting and today’s subject: Nate Jones.

Who? Read the rest of this entry »

In a recent chat, Paul was asked the following question:

Challenge accepted. By using our auction calculator, I wrote a procedure for any league type which creates an ADP to auction value formula. I will step through the process for any league and provide a few standard equations.

Step one: Set up your league settings in our auction calculator.

Go through all the boxes and make sure each option is set correctly especially the number of bench players to bid on. For a projection, use the Depth Charts.

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I’ve written about Luis Valbuena a couple of different times this winter: once in regard to the third basemen available on the free agent market and then again as a comparison against Chase Headley, as it looked like the New York Yankees were in pursuit of the veteran third baseman. With Valbuena now suiting up for the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) thanks to a recent two-year deal, now comes the time that we evaluate whether or not he’ll be a fantasy asset in the coming year.

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