Fantasy Busts and Opportunities: NL West

The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, NL Central here, and AL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

NL West Opportunities

Diamondbacks

Arizona has multiple position battles to sort this spring. Will Babe Herrmann maintain his strong 2016 production? Or will Jeff Mathis and Chris Iannetta bring us back to 2008? Herrmann and Iannetta may have fringy fantasy value while Mathis is purely a real world guy.

The middle infield is likely to be some combination of Ketel Marte, Brandon Drury, and Nick Ahmed with a dash of Chris Owings. Ahmed features great defense, and he hits enough against left-handed pitchers to be streamed on Mondays and Thursdays. Drury has more bat and should be viewed as a modest breakout candidate. Marte isn’t as defensively able as Ahmed, but his bat is a little more consistent. Shortstop could eventually turn into a platoon.

Last season, Yasmany Tomas managed to post negative WAR despite a 109 wRC+. With new leadership in Phoenix, we may see a preference for Owings and/or Socrates Brito over Tomas. Pollock and Peralta are injury risks, but they’ll play most days if healthy. Oswaldo Arcia and Jeremy Hazelbaker are also floating around the back end of the roster. Either could snatch the fifth outfielder job.

The current rotation lists Pat Corbin as the sixth starter. He was terrible last season in his return from injury. His command took a big step back, and he also allowed a 18.3 percent HR/FB ratio. If either or both of those naturally improve, he’ll have a shot to oust Shelby Miller, Archie Bradley, or Robbie Ray. I have to imagine Zack Greinke and Taijuan Walker aren’t going anywhere. Braden Shipley and Zack Godley have some upside as streamers if they get the starts.

Every preseason, we look at Fernando Rodney and say…draft his backup. This time around, the backups will need to battle it out over April, May, etc. Any and all of Jake Barrett, Randall Delgado, Enrique Burgos, or Silvino Bracho (among others) could emerge as a ninth inning alternative.

Dodgers

Among the position players, the Dodgers have seven starters and a left field platoon. We’ll see some combination of Andrew Toles, Andre Ethier, Trayce Thompson, Enrique Hernandez, and Scott Van Slyke. Upgrades will come from external sources. Yasiel Puig’s always a hard one to figure. He may lose playing time too.

On FanGraphs’ main page, Craig Edwards recently wrote about the Dodgers wacky rotation. They’re once again set to use Clayton Kershaw and a small army of good-but-flaky hurlers. Rich Hill is an old guy who hasn’t shouldered a full season workload since 2007. Kenta Maeda was once described by a baseball person as having the worst medicals he’d ever seen. Hyperbole? They’re both locks if healthy.

Alex Wood is young, but he has trouble staying on the field. Julio Urias is expected to open the season in extended Spring Training so he’ll be available in September and October. Brandon McCarthy is good when healthy – which is rare. Scott Kazmir appeared to have shaken the injury bug prior to relapsing in 2016. Hyun-Jin Ryu claims to be fully recovered. We’ll see. Brock Stewart is a promising prospect, and Ross Stripling is a viable swing starter.

Altogether, that’s Kershaw, seven other major league starters, Stewart, and Stripling. It’s going to be a headache and a streaming opportunity for fantasy owners. Be careful investing your draft picks.

Giants

The Giants effectively have two position battles this spring, although their outfield is perilously thin. I can’t imagine they won’t acquire at least one outfielder between now and Opening Day. Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson are set to battle for supremacy in left field. Typically, it’s fine for a contender to have a position like this. The problem for San Fran is that Denard Span and Hunter Pence have trouble staying on the field. They’re going to need more depth.

The other position battle is at third base where Eduardo Nunez will try to stave off Jae-gyun Hwang and Conor Gillaspie. Hwang is fresh off two great seasons in the KBO while Gillaspie showed flashes of a breakout last year – including some postseason heroics. If the club is comfortable with Hwang and Gillaspie sharing third, then Nunez would be freed up to provide support to the outfield.

The Giants completely lack a fifth starter, making them an obvious match for Jason Hammel. You could say Matt Cain is the fifth guy, but it’s been an awfully long while since he was viable in any capacity. Ty Blach is thought to be big league ready, although I’m not sure he’ll have much fantasy utility beyond the occasional AT&T Stream Start of the Day. Tyler Beede could be ready at some point in 2017.

San Diego

I’m an unreasonably big fan of the Padres offense from a fantasy perspective. They feature Wil Myers and a bunch of should-be-free guys with upside. Second base ought to be Ryan Schimpf’s to lose. He has stout competition in former 10th overall pick Cory Spangenberg and semi-touted prospect Carlos Asuaje. Schimpf is also capable of playing third base if something were to happen to Yangervis Solarte.

In the outfield, Travis Jankowski, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe are the expected starters. Jankowski is like an un-hyped Billy Hamilton. The stolen base upside isn’t quite the same, but he could easily swipe over 40 bags in a full season. Margot has prowess on the bases too. His batting profile is well-rounded and virtually untested in the majors. If you’re hoping for the best outcome from Renfroe, it probably looks something like prime Josh Hamilton. He has the potential to be one of those rare hitters with a big whiff rate and a tolerable strikeout rate. Backing up the trio is Alex Dickerson – an above average outfielder in his own right. Spangenberg and Asuaje could feature as the fifth outfielder. Franchy Cordero is also well-regarded for his bat.

The Padres don’t have any starting pitchers. They’re hoping to borrow them from their opponent. Maybe a guy or two rises into relevance for streaming purposes. In the bullpen, Brandon Maurer is warming the seat until Carter Capps‘ midseason return. Capps was briefly the best reliever in baseball before his elbow asploded.

Rockies

A favorite team of fantasy owners, the Rockies have built a stout offense. It’s looking increasingly likely that Ian Desmond is, in fact, going to start at first base this year. I guess they just wanted future flexibility.

Behind the plate, the fantasy circuit is clamoring to see a lot of Tom Murphy. Expect Tony Wolters to earn the starters nod. He’s the better defender and his bat is good enough for a catcher.

The fifth starter’s role is unsettled with Jeff Hoffman, Eddie Butler, Chris Rusin, and others in the mix. Remember, Coors Field. You never actually wanted the Rockies fifth starter. Still, there might be a rare AT&T start worthy of consideration.

The recent signing of Greg Holland puts Adam Ottavino on red alert. You have to figure Holland is a few sharp appearances away from taking the role. Or maybe Ottavino has to open the door with a blown save first.

Grid of NL West Opportunities
Potential Bust Players to Stash Players to Stash Players to Stash
AZ Catcher Chris Herrmann Chris Iannetta
Brandon Drury Ketel Marte Chris Owings
Nick Ahmed Ketel Marte Chris Owings
Yasmany Tomas Chris Owings Socrates Brito Oswaldo Arcia
Shelby Miller Pat Corbin Braden Shipley Zack Godley
Fernando Rodney Monitor…
Dodgers Left Field Andrew Toles Andre Ethier Trayce Thompson
LAD Young Starters Alex Wood Julio Urias Brock Stewart
LAD Old Starters Rich Hill Kenta Maeda Hyun-Jin Ryu
(cont) Scott Kazmir Brandon McCarthy
Giants LF Mac Williamson Jarrett Parker Eduardo Nunez
Eduardo Nunez Conor Gillaspie Jae-gun Hwang
Giants Fifth SP Ty Blach Tyler Beede Matt Cain
Ryan Schimpf Cory Spangenberg Carlos Asuaje
Padres OF Depth Alex Dickerson Infielders Franchy Cordero
Brandon Maurer Carter Capps
Rockies Catcher Tony Wolters Tom Murphy
Adam Ottavino Greg Holland





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Anon
7 years ago

Dbacks fan here – I’d keep an eye on Owings. He came up as a SS and was even the PCL MVP in 2013 as a SS. Since being called up he’s had some injury issues and then the DBacks started to move him all over the field which I don’t think has helped him at all – 1st to 2B so they could play Ahmed and then to CF as an emergency solution to Pollock going down the last week of spring training last year. When Ahmed went down for good last year, Owings was the every day SS from 7/31 onward and put up a very solid 289/316/444 line over that time. Ahmed is obviously fantastic with the glove but he’s absolutely brutal at the plate. His career wRC+ of 54 would not have been in the top 10 PITCHERS last year (min 20 PA). Glove only defensive SS only get a full-time gig if they’re generational defensive talents – Belanger, Ozzie, Simmons – and Ahmed is good but not in that class.

I agree it’s going to be a lot of mix and match in the middle infield with Drury, Marte and also Phil Gosselin getting some playing time. However Drury is brutal at 2B (I think he’ll get more time platooning with Lamb at 3B and Peralta in RF), Gosselin doesn’t have the bat and Marte doesn’t have the offensive upside of Owings. Owings is probably the best bet of the bunch to take over a full-time position in the middle infield.