Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 27th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Hellloooooo!!!

Paul Sporer: Let’s talk some baseball!

Eric: Ottoneu 5×5 – $13 Story + $8 Joe Ross or $10 Khris Davis + $9 Dan Duffy + $5 Colome

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s interesting. I think I’d take the trio. I love Story, but gimme the three pack

Minty: 10 team 30 man roster OBP. Have Rizzo, Bryant, Arenado, Beni, Correa, Baez, Betts. Trade Springer/Moncada for Story or Trea Turner?

Paul Sporer: Not sure how much value Moncada has for a 10-teamer this year, but I think with 30 man rosters you can keep him in case he pops so I’d sit tight

David: Keep forever, 6×6 with R, RBI, HR, OBP, SLG, and Net Steals. Joc Pederson or Gregory Polanco?

Paul Sporer: Removing AVG pushes me to Joc. I still think he starts running soon

Jeff: With a $260 auction budget, what’s the most you’d feel comfortable paying for Ian Desmond?

Paul Sporer: ~$22

Maxamuz: With SS being so flush this year, should I keep Story at $8 if I already have Machado at $21?

Paul Sporer: Ya I still think you need to keep him at $8. Love the 2B/SS markets this year, but that doesn’t mean you should eschew great value

Maxamuz: What do you see Sonny Gray doing this year? I can keep him for $8 but am worried that he won’t return to his CY-Young-esq form.

Paul Sporer: It’s a matter of health, right? I don’t think he forgot how to be good, he was hurt and pitched poorly. I think at $8, I’m taking a shot in most formats

Big Willy: How you do envision Carlos Rodon doing this season?

Paul Sporer: I like him to build on another strong 2nd half: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-al-edition/

Rich People Problems : Have 11 dope keepers, completely stacked on offense with just one OF spot open, and then Lester, Carrasco, Archer as my rotation with no other viable starters for my last keeper spot. Who’s my 12th guy: Nelson Cruz, Joc Pederson, Zach Britton, Rich Hill.

Paul Sporer: I’d take Britton. He’s arguably the top closer (I have a hard time really separating ZB, Jansen, and Chapman)

Paul Sporer: Chat is going to be a little shorter today so I can record a podcast, just FYI

Bags: 12 teams, keep 15 with walks and slugging. Pick 1 – Joey Bats, Domingo, Soler.

Paul Sporer: with BB and SLG, it’s Bats

Kevin Maitan: FAAB opens up tonight, $200, 12 Team full keeper. People are Bidding Maitan up over $50… are they crazy? Am I crazy to think Yadier Alvarez is worth more than Maitan?

Paul Sporer: I prefer hitting prospects so I totally get why Maitan is the draw. I’d prefer him, too, but if everyone is going HAM on him, then you can nab Alvarez at a cheaper rate

Maxamuz: In a keeper league with an auction draft – do you find it better to keep minimal players (we can keep 0-5 players) or keep the guys you want – even if they are at what their auction value would be – I.E. Betts @ $44

Paul Sporer: I’m not entirely against keeping a guy at a higher cost, especially if inflation is substantial. Betts is probably someone who’d go around $50 in most keeper lgs with some inflation so there’s some savings there

Big Willy: Where do you think Hwang’s first year in MLB rate in comparison to other recent KBO players? (Kang, Kim, Park)

Paul Sporer: I can’t pretend to know much about him, so I’ll direct you here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-good-hitter-to-come-from-south-korea/

Big Willy: What is your confidence in Brandon Belt going forward? He upped his FB% massively with no improvement in HRs. Do you see him breaking 30 HR plateau this year?

Paul Sporer: Part of it is his park, it eats potential HRs for lunch. But his HR/FB also dipped a good bit last year – http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10264&position=1B As far as 30, I don’t think so, but he should have a few 20s.

Jeff Boggis: Who will win the 2017 Tout Wars head to head league this season?

Paul Sporer: Probably that Sporer guy

Slamboni: In your opinion, what’s the best way to do Roto scoring? Last season we switched from standard 5×5, to QS (instead of wins) and K/9 over K. Wasn’t a huge fan

Paul Sporer: I don’t like doing K9 along with ERA and WHIP bc then you have 3 ratio categories. Honestly, I’m perfectly fine w/that standard 5×5. It’s a game, we don’t HAVE to match things to real life, we play within a set of parameters and then construct teams to maximize them. I’m completely cool with leagues that wants to emulate real life as much as possible and dump things like Wins, but I don’t think it’s a must

Lostie23: Would you trade A Sanchez for D. Duffy and $4 in cap space.

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

Bags: Thoughts on Aj Pollock this year?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be really good again

Big Willy: Who do you have more confidence in 2017, Eric Thames or Matt Holliday?

Paul Sporer: Confidence? Holliday

Paul Sporer: That said, I’d probably take Thames a little earlier for the extra upside (they’re only a couple rounds apart, though)

Bernhard: CL in Col ……Holland or Ottavino? SP Gsellmann or Andriese ?

Paul Sporer: Ottavino. I think Andriese is the way to go.

Hannah Hochevar: Hey Paul! Thanks for passing my question along to Jeff “Where You Gonna Run To” Zimmerman. You can delegate with the best of ’em.

Paul Sporer: Haha thanks, I hope you liked his piece!

Derek: Always been a big fan of Drew Hutchinson, i think i’m an even bigger fan now that he’s in Pitt. They can’t actually think Nicasio or Kuhl are better options do they?

Paul Sporer: I think Nicasio is done starting, but Kuhl is going to get a shot. I’m still in on Hutch, too, though

Jason: Paul. Which SP core is better for 17 team league: Kershaw, Hamels Rodon, Cotton or Salazar, Hamels,

Paul Sporer: This seems incomplete

Jason: that q cut out early. Please don’t answer LOL

Paul Sporer: Whoops, missed that

Jason: Would you rather have Kershaw plus a 34-51 ADP type guy or a Hamels/Salazar combo as the top two guys on your staff

Paul Sporer: Definitely the Kershaw pairing. Even taking the low end of that, it’s him and Samardzija v Hamels/Salazar (http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=SP Shark is 51st right now)

Diego: roto keeper league, choose one? $4 Y Gurriel or $12 Semien

Paul Sporer: This one’s tough. I like Semien, but I’m not sure he’s worth 3x, especially given the MI depth. I think I’ll take the savings and go Yuli

Bagwell: Keep forever – Ed-Rod, Keuchel, Odorizzi, Robbie Ray

Paul Sporer: Odorizzi, I still think there’s another level

Nelson: Otto league, keep strass at 40$? Almost every top pitcher is kept no matter what the price

Paul Sporer: Take a shot. It’s a gamble, but the payoff is still massive

Penguin: Biggest difficulty when creating rankings?

Paul Sporer: Ignoring ADP and just sticking to what you truly believe

Minty: Moncada/Springer for Dahl, or same logic against Turner or Story?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d take Turner or Story over Dahl. Love all three, but the price seems too high

Marty: Why are so many people higher on Clint Frazier than Tyler O’niell? O’niell by the numbers is just better and 1 year younger. Am I wrong to let Frazier go to the highest bidder in a Dynasty Format and just gun for O’niell?

Paul Sporer: Just hype difference between a 1st and 3rd rounder

Paul Sporer: So if you see them similarly, then yes you should let Frazier get taxed and take O’Neill instead

Jeff: What’re the odds that in fantasy Moncada turns out to be Baez? 50%?

Paul Sporer: Like a utility defense-first guy for this year? That’s certainly possible. But we have no idea what Baez truly is so far

David: Any chance Brandon Finnegan fixes his homer problem?

Paul Sporer: Ya, it can be a fixable issue for sure. His park doesn’t help, but refined command happens all the time for pitchers

old spartan: Can you make a case for ‘keeping’ Urias and bumping any one of Arenado, Trea, Stanton, Freeman or Polanco in a ‘keep forever, point league’?

Paul Sporer: I cannot

Dago: Brandon Belt: Same amount of Barrels (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard) as Arenado, Carlos Santana and Stanton. Posseses more barrels than Rizzo, Lamb Martinez, Cano and Dozier. Better wOBA than Edwin Encarnacion, Seager and Beltre, among others. Should we read between the lines for Belt? I know the “this is the year” narrative has been out forever, but is this the year?

Paul Sporer: I just think the home park stifles HRs too much so even when he SLGs the same home and away, it’s 2B/3B at home and HR on the road

Guest: Do you have a favorite MiLB pitcher(s) that you’re irrationally in love with and am willing to invest heavily in for the long-term? I’m obsessed with Honeywell and I just can’t help myself.

Paul Sporer: After seeing Honeywell at the Arizona Fall Lg, I totally get that. I don’t have any obsessions right now, but I still like Robert Stephenson. I also like Luke Weaver and David Paulino

David: Aaron Nola or Lance McCullers?

Paul Sporer: I just love McCullers’ upside, but his health is scary and even though Nola also had a health issue last year, I’ve still got him a little higher

Ken M: i just followed my ex from a few years ago on instagram. she had beef with that. fair or foul?

Paul Sporer: She got mad at you following her? Then just unfollow, you don’t need the drama. You’re exes for reason, right?

Zigs: How many innings from Alex Reyes can we expect this year? Does he get to 150 ks and a WHIP of 1.25?

Paul Sporer: I’m thinking 150 IP max and if he’s mostly starting then the WHIP will be more in the 1.35 range. I could see 150 Ks, though

Guest: James Paxton is this year’s Raisel Iglesias. But who is Paulie’s 2017 version of Carlos Carrasco?

Paul Sporer: Does Danny Duffy count? He had the SP/RP split like Carrasco did when he busted through and then took off as SP.

Chris: Best prospect to throw $2 at: A. Meadows, N. Senzel, A. Rosario ?

Paul Sporer: Meadows

Jim-Bob: Rank for next year: Manaea, Rodon, Moore?

Paul Sporer: Rodon, Moore, and Manaea. Just moved Manaea up the other day and all three are in a relatively tight 15 slot bundle

Phil: Whats your thoughts on T. Glasnow currently and for the future?

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge fan. I worry about his ability to repeat his mechanics and maintain control at his height.

Hack Wilson: My league is considering going from a 5 Keeper with a draft (keeping players in original draft rounds for 3 years) to an Auction. Trying to find a solution for applying dollars to current keepers rather than start from scratch. Any suggestions?

Paul Sporer: Maybe use this where the “ADP” is last year’s draft slot? http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/adp-to-auction-values-process/

Paul Sporer: Don’t repeat questions, please. The queue is full. I’m not ignoring your question.

Jeff: Which pair do you prefer at equal cost – Rich Hill and Kevin Kiermaier or Anthony DeSclafani and Odubel Herrera – 6×6 with OPS and K/BB on top of traditional cats?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Hill/KK

John Doe: I have a $250 budget for my draft – I can keep 5 players and they add up to $105. Is that to much to be keeping that I may lose out on draft day? Machado, Arenado, Betts, Story and Bregman are the keepers.

Paul Sporer: Don’t worry about how much they cost if they’re worth it and that’s a great group

Nelson: Salazar or Quintana?

Paul Sporer: I have Q a few slots higher

Mr. B: Months ago you ranked Duffy #17 on your SPs for 2017. Sticking to it? That puts him in some nice company…

Paul Sporer: He’s still there, yes. I love him. Even if I wind up slotting him down a little after further analysis, he’s going to be no lower than probably 22 for me

Joe: Keep Jon Gray and Urias for $5 each in a 12 team points league?

Paul Sporer: Gray for sure. Urias maybe, as long as you can hide him for the early part of the year as they plan to be very careful with him and maybe even leave him in extended Spring initially

Bryce M: Which keeper would you prefer in a 5×5 standard roto league: Jake Lamb at $1 or David Dahl at $10? Feeling like they both have upside and downside, but maybe position depth (lackthereof) at 3B pushing Lamb slightly ahead?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t been shy about my love of Dahl, but gimme Lamb at a buck

J Cotton 4ever: Projected line on Conley of 3.76, 1.25 8K/9 too optimistic?

Paul Sporer: No, really only requires WHIP improvement which is certainly possible

BurningBridges247: Wanted to say I love your SP and MLB The Show work. What do you expect from McCullers this year? Stays healthy..maybe….pretty please?

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! I sure hope he does, but the red flags are there. He had shoulder AND elbow issues last year. I’m still betting on the upside, but don’t overpay (his 193 ADP works for me)

Steve: What are we thinking for Sano this year/long term? Can he ever manage a .250 avg / .350 obp line?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he can. His projection this year is .241/.333 which isn’t that far off the .250/.350

CT: Keep forever league no cost consideration, pick 2. Mazara/Benintendi/Bregman?

Paul Sporer: Maz and Breg

Cory: Would you trade Urias, who you can keep for 5 years for Goldy, who you can keep for only this year?

Paul Sporer: if my keepers are setting up for a big run in ’17, yes

JAL: Paul, even with some solid picks, I had a disastrous year last year headlined by taking McCutch 21st and Bautista 28, Fielder 52, Heyward 117, etc. Here’s to a better yr!

Paul Sporer: We all have those years. It’s never ONE pick, it’s when 3-4 collapse on ya

JAL: Thoughts on Archer is a SP1 this year and back to the well with Salazar as a SP2?

Paul Sporer: Love that combo as 1-2

hooha: I’ve been doing a lot of mocks and am unsure how my SP staff looks if I load up on offense. In a 5×5 12 team league – what do you think of a staff lead by archer, greinke, hill, gray, & nola – good enough to be middle of the pack or focus more in the future?

Paul Sporer: I really like it. You have to be more speculative on SP when you’re stacking hitting so it’s not always going to LOOK great coming out of the draft, but the upside is there. Archer and Greinke are both coming off of weak seasons and I can see both bouncing back

Chip : Why does everyone dislike Adrian Beltre? What says he can’t repeat a 300 30 season?

Paul Sporer: Because he’s old. Fantasy baseball is ageist and people are terrified of holding the hot potato when the music stops

Guest: Have you ever held a chat while also playing MLBTS?

Paul Sporer: I have not, but I stream on twitch.tv/psporer24 which is essentially doing that as I interact with the chat about not only the game, but also real and fantasy baseball

Paul Sporer: I’ll be on tonight with Paul Kastava in fact

Tuffy: Does Jett Bandy’s move out of LA hurt the chances that we’ll see him fulfill his destiny as a hollywood villain?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. It’s a major dent on his once-promising movie career (gotta be a pod listener for this one, folks)

Fred: My long run tomorrow thanks you for the planned podcast!

Paul Sporer: No problem! Gonna bust through a couple more than head off to record

TERMINATOR 2: JUDGEMENT DAY: $5 Mazara or $2 Realmuto? 5×5 12 tm roto

Paul Sporer: Maz

FGM: $22 too much to keep Rodon in a $300 salary league? Salaries increase and I’ve had him the last two years waiting on a breakout.

Paul Sporer: No, definitely not, though I’d caution on expecting too much more than ’16 which was a lighter version of his ’14 breakout. He can get back to ’14 levels, but that’s probably the peak level

ROBOCOP: $5 Mazara or $16 Chris Davis (12 team 5x5roto with 5 keepers per team, +$4 inflation for every year kept up to 4 years)

Paul Sporer: Maz, I’m not a huge Davis fan and the HR explosion cuts his value further

Kendrick: Can get M Brantley for a $1 right now because of all the uncertainty with his shoulder. Worth a gamble?

Paul Sporer: Yes, at a buck for sure

Choo: Why does my work block Yahoo fantasy baseball? ? And somehow I can access any other Yahoo league.

Paul Sporer: They realize how awesome fantasy baseball is

Marc: Once the show comes out you need to set up a Fangraphs Franchise! I call dibs on the Pirates 🙂

Paul Sporer: I’ll be starting an online franchise early into the release for sure

Dave: Dynasty league. Castellanos, Moustakas and Healy in order please …

Paul Sporer: I think you just did, but truthfully there is little split between them IMO

Paul Sporer: Speaks to the depth of 3B right now

jackSheps: Do you ever play icognito in public fantasy leagues? Would be funny if a league partner was asking your advice

Paul Sporer: I’m too much of a loudmouth, I’ll blow my cover by Tax Day

Ryan: Hey Paul, in a keep-forever, which guys would you take as your final 2 keepers: Porcello, Maeda, Piscotty, Benintendi, Jansen, Hamels?

Paul Sporer: Piscotty, Jansen

D Nice: Matt Harvey or Aaron Nola? 10 teamer keeper H2H pts, currently (email) drafting and both are still on the board in the 9th round.

Paul Sporer: I’m so scared of Harvey right now coming off thoracic outlet so I’ll go Nola. If Harvey is healthy in spring and making his mile markers, I’ll buy back in

Mike: Is T.Story a reach in the second round? I just have trouble seeing him fall much in the third.

Paul Sporer: No, not necessarily. I think you can get him in the 3rd most times, but I can understand wanting a 30 HR-15 SB SS in the 2nd

Rasta: Yahoo giving Schwarber C eligibility. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I don’t usually get too hung up on those things. Just something we gotta work with. Did they give VMart C-elig after his missed year?

Marc: Keeping closers is a no-no right? 12 team keep 10 league.

Paul Sporer: Not always, no. These superstuds are pretty bankable, IMO

FGM: I think you read Rendon rather than Rodon. $22 too much for Carlos Rodon?

Paul Sporer: Ohhhhhhh

Paul Sporer: I sure did

Paul Sporer: and yes, it’s too much

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta run. I think we can marathon it next week so bring these questions back. Y’all crushed it on filling the queue today

Wilson: Cutch for Greinke. Fair value?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I prefer Cutch

Marc: Britton qualify as bankable? Can keep two more between him Dahl Mazara Kang Duffy Taillon

Paul Sporer: Absolutely he does

Paul Sporer: Dahl, ZB, Duffy – pick your favorite 2

Paul Sporer: OK, leaving for real!

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out. Hit me on twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer and again if you play MLB The Show, I’m streaming tonight at twitch.tv/psporer24 and you can ask your fantasy questions there, too