A Minor Review of 2016: Minnesota Twins

Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Max Kepler (OF/1B): It took almost seven years but the project from Germany finally established himself as a big league player. Kepler, signed at age 16, showed his raw power potential in 2016 by hitting a career high 17 home runs in 113 games for the Twins. But he also swung and missed a fair bit and produced an on-base percentage of just .309. He has some work to do against southpaws before he’ll realize his full potential. He produced an OPS of just .595 against them (compared to .792 vs righties) and his ISO also dipped considerably (.119 vs LHP, .219 vs RHP). Still, the Twins appear set to hand him the reins for right field in 2017. If he continues to develop (and avoid a platoon), Kepler could eventually slug 30+ home runs and even add 10-15 steals.

The Riser: Stephen Gonsalves (LHP): Gonsalves isn’t flashy but he has a firm fastball, four-pitch repertoire and potentially plus command/control. He also misses a good number of bats and has the perfect frame to develop into an innings-eater. He opened the year in A-ball but moved up halfway through the year and dominated. He allowed just 43 hits in 74.1 innings and also struck out 89 batters. The club may choose to be cautious with Gonsalves and return him to double-A but he should spend a good portion of the year in triple-A before making his MLB debut. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter who can chew up a lot of innings.

The Tumbler: Lewis Thorpe (LHP): While Gonsalves was stepping up, another young lefty took a tiny step backward. Thorpe missed all of 2015 and ’16 due to Tommy John surgery – two years of very valuable development time. Now 21, he’ll have a huge challenge to make up for lost time and also overcome the question marks that have followed him throughout his career (size, delivery). If he can get back on track, though, Thorpe showed the makings of three-plus pitches and impact velocity from the left side. He’ll look to open 2017 in either low- or high-A ball.

The ’16 Draft Pick: Alex Kirilloff (OF): Minnesota loves to draft/sign teenaged hitters and has had a recent knack for developing power hitters so Kirilloff checks off both those boxes. He had an outstanding debut as an 18-year-old outfielder in rookie ball: He hit more than .300, slugged seven homers in 55 games and struck out just 32 times – showing a better-than-expected approach at the plate. On the downside, he does have some aggressiveness and he walked just 11 times in his debut. The left-handed hitter has a chance to develop into a power-hitting right-fielder and a strong spring could push him to full season ball in 2017. He’s about four years away from the majors.

The Lottery Ticket: Luis Arraez (2B): This young Venezuelan has done nothing but rake as a pro. Over three seasons, he sports a career batting average of .338. He also has a BB-K rate of 66-70 and it was 35-19 is his first two seasons at the rookie ball level. In 114 games in 2016, Arraez hit .347 and produced 165 hits — with just 51 strikeouts. Now the bad news: He doesn’t walk much, so his ability to get on base is very dependent on making good contact. As well, he doesn’t run much and — despite having some gap pop — he’s never going to be a power hitter. Still, he might eventually make a solid No. 2 hitter at the big league level if he can continue to develop. Arraez will move up to high-A ball in 2017 and could eventually be the successor to Brian Dozier — a very, very different type of second baseman — in Minnesota.