Tout Wars Prep: Final Standings

I’m continuing to step through my Tout Wars auction prep. Last week, I broke down the league’s draft including the pitcher/hitter mix and some ownership trends. Today, I am going to examine the league’s final standings to see what it takes to win.

Every owner may try to win every category but that approach is completely unrealistic. I believe an owner should never win a category if they are behind in any other one. Every bit of distance between them and second place is a waste. Get to second in every category and then starting taking over the top spots. There is no reason for an owner to win RBIs by 50 if they’re 8th in Runs.

To find what it takes to win the Tour Wars league, here are the average points per category for the past three winners. As a reminder, the league is a standard 15-team 5×5 league with OBP instead of AVG.

Season: Average Points per Category (1st place = 15 points, 2nd place =14 points, …, 15th place = 1 point)
2014: 12.1
2015: 11.3
2016: 12.7
Average: 12.0

A fourth place finish in every category puts me in good shape to win while averaging third place almost guarantees me a win.

For reference, here are the average, weighted average, and 2016 final values needed for a 4th place finish in each category. Normally, I would just use a three-year average but with the latest uptick in offense, I may weigh the recent seasons more.

The offensive scoring uptick can easily be seen (Runs, HR, RBIs, and ERA up). Additionally, a few more hits fell (OBP and WHIP up). I will address the uptick’s importance and how owners should deal with it in a later article. Right now I just want to make the options known and available. The other stats, stolen bases, Wins, Saves, and strikeouts, remain constant.

I now have a target in mind when picking players. My Strikeout and Win total will be low as two-start pitchers will increase the totals. Additionally, if I want to compete in Saves, I will likely need to find at least two dependable closers.

Key Point: Know the category and overall total points needed to win your league. It is a good baseline for picking players.

Next, I need to see if myself or any other team can punt a category or two and still win. The short answer for one category is yes. In 2014, Derek Van Riper spent just $3 on closers, placed last in Saves, averaged 13.3 points otherwise, and won. The next season, he spent no money on closers, ended up last in Saves, and was 13th overall averaging just 6.5 points otherwise. Same strategy, different results.

In 2015, Fred Zinkie placed second to last in Saves and won with 113 points. In the auction he didn’t ignore the category, his picks just didn’t work out. Again in 2016, Zinkie was last in Saves and was able to place second, 5.5 points behind the winner. A few more Saves could have given him the overall win.

To reach the hypothetical 120 points while only getting 1 point in Saves, an owner needs to do exactly what Van Riper did, average 13.2 points (119/9). This number works out to 3rd place or higher in every category. An owner is already needing a 4th place or higher average finish to win, so allocating the Save resources to the other categories may push the rest into 3rd place.

Saves is probably the easiest single category to ignore but I could see an opportunity for a team to do it with stolen bases.

Now, the option exists to try to dump starting pitching by winning Saves, WHIP, ERA, and all the hitting categories. This philosophy was tried once in the league by Ray Guilfoyle in 2014 and he ended up 6th with the strategy. He was 1st or 2nd in the three pitching categories which is perfect. Additionally, he wasn’t last in the other two (11th in Wins, 14th in Strikeouts). His problem was that his offense was just above par (averaged 5th place finish) and overall he was 6th.

Doing the math on a theoretical example, an owner would be 1st in three pitching categories and last in the other two for a total of 47 points. To reach the goal of 120, he needs to place 1st in three hitting categories and 2nd in the other two. It is a chance I wouldn’t take and will gladly let a competitor try. This method will almost guarantee they won’t be a title contender.

Key Point: Understand if an owner can dump a category or two and still win the league. It is not smart to intentionally go into a draft/auction dropping a category but sometimes the room forces your hand. In this league, it seems like dropping one category is fine but two will create a hole too deep to crawl out of.

The next step’s results are not needed right away but it is an easy time to calculate the average player later use. Owners are always trying to hit home runs with their player selections but the steady contributors can help an owner meet his goals.

The average hitter is simple to find. I just divided the totals needed by the number of players used (14) and here is the player.

Looking over the 2016 results, Logan Forsythe (243rd in NFBC ADP) and Andrew McCutchen (67th in ADP) had similar seasons.

Additionally, here are some 2017 hitter projection near the average player.

Owners are valuing Desmond and Upton higher than the others for good reason … the top two are better players. The list also shows that value can be found later with league average production available with near the end with Josh Reddick.

With pitchers, the process is about impossible with both closers and starters. The number I first target is strikeouts. I need about 1350 K’s. Assuming 85 strikeouts for two closers, the total needed from the seven starters is 1200 or 168 each. Only 32 pitchers reached this total in 2016 and 34 are projected to do so this season.

I aim for the 168 strikeout guys and that is it. There are too many other competing variables to value pitchers otherwise (e.g. using two-start pitchers for strikeouts and Wins knowing your ERA and WHIP will get hurt). I do know that if I am using a 168K/yr pitcher, I don’t need to rotate him out during two start weeks to get me to my strikeout target.

Key Point: Find the average player needed to win the league. This composite hitter provides a baseline production level for owners to acquire. It’s impossible to find a composite pitcher with both starters and relievers. Instead find out the strikeouts needed for a top finish. Again, I will go over how I use this player in a later article but I calculate his stats now to save time later.

That’s it for today. So far I found out what people spend their money on and what it takes to win. Next, I will find my player evaluation equations and get some initial dollar values.