Chat transcript below:

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Last week I wrote about this season’s top pitchers and batters according to xStats. The top players in each category weren’t especially controversial, Clayton Kershaw, Aroldis Chapman, and Mike Trout respectively for Starting Pitcher, Reliever, and Batter. You could perhaps debate Chapman, maybe you prefer Andrew Miller for instance, but generally these guys are universally regarded as the top in the game. This week I want to look at the most improved players. I am using the same weighted rank I used last week. It isn’t any sort of sophisticated weighting, it is more of a back of the envelope type estimation for how each of the associated stats relate to run scoring. I’m just giving xOBA and VH% 40% of the weight, xSLG, xBACON, and xOBP share the next 40%, and PH%, xAVG, and xBABIP share the remaining 20%. I feel this roughly represents each of their predictive power, relative to one another, but is gut feeling, these rankings are very subjective.

I’ve taken the 15 most improved batters from 2015 with at least 400 PA using according to the ranking I described above. Batters had to have as least 400 PA in both 2015 and 2016 in order to qualify.

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September is Head-to-Head playoffs month. Just like the major league postseason, a lot is riding on tiny little samples of performance. If your team was anchored by players like Bryce Harper, Gregory Polanco, Sandy Leon, Travis Jankowski, and Michael Saunders, you likely suffered an ignominious defeat. That quintet would have gotten you to the playoffs, but they were conspicuously absent for the month of September.

Let’s talk about the players who played hero in the final month. There’s no analytical angle here. These guys simply stepped up (for your fantasy teams) when it counted.

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Back in March, I compiled the bold predictions from all the RotoGraphs writers to figure out which were our most common. Now we can look back and see if we did any better as a group than we did as individuals.

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Let’s finish up my preseason starting pitcher strikeout rate articles by looking at those I identified as possessing significant downside, as hinted at by my xK% equation. It’s a very different list than the one generated by the upsiders, as these tend to be the pitchers with high strikeout rates with seemingly the only direction to go moving forward is down.

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The 2016 season was a banner year for the longball and not just in relation to the recent downturn in offense. The 5610 hit this year are the second-most ever. Ever. Per plate appearance, it was even more than the 2000 season that saw 5692 homers hit. Within that surge, we saw an all-time high in 20+ home run hitters with 111. The previous high was set in 1999 at 103. Prior to this year, the top 14 seasons for 20+ HR hitters were all set between 1996 and 2009. Adding the 20+ HR hitters from 2014 and 2015 barely eclipses this year’s total (121 to 111) and this year’s output is nearly 2x higher than last year’s (64 to 111).

Let’s take a look at how this year’s home run surge broke down by position, with catcher and first base, second base and shortstop Friday (forgot I had my chat on Thursday), and then third base and outfield early next week. We’ll focus on the 20+ HR hitters at each position and identify some players who could enter those ranks next year.

CATCHER

Backstop saw one of the bigger surges in 20+ HR hitters compared to recent years with eight this year after just 10 in 2014-15 combined, including a whopping four last year (all who did it again this year).

Evan Gattis (32), Yasmani Grandal (27), Jonathan Lucroy (24), Wilson Ramos (22), Salvador Perez (22), Gary Sanchez (20), Russell Martin (20), and Brian McCann (20).

Gattis, Martin, McCann, and Perez were the four who also achieved the feat in 2015 as well. Notice the consensus #1 catcher, Buster Posey, didn’t make the list as he hit just 14 homers this year. He could find his way back in there next year, but it’s no sure bet with just one 20+ HR season over his last four (22 in ’14).

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My original intention for this week’s column was to continue on with examining some of the 2016 performances of third basemen. However, given recent events, I am now presented with an opportunity to examine a versatile (and, as such, a third base-eligible) player that has easily emerged as one of my favorite players to watch, in all of baseball. This has been a growing trend for me, and many others with North Side loyalties, over the past couple of years. The rest of the country, however, spent the National League Division Series matchup between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants learning just what Javier Baez brings to the table.

We’re not going to talk about the glove here. For one, it really speaks for itself. Javy Baez might have the best set of hands I’ve ever seen a baseball player possess. His instincts are off the charts, along with a strong arm. Toss in the athleticism and the versatility, and it’s really no wonder that Joe Maddon is comfortable deploying him at the five different positions at which he appeared this year. He maintains fantasy eligibility at second, shortstop, and, of course, third base.

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• Reports from Scott Boras have Matt Harvey returning at 100% health to start spring training.

….. Harvey underwent surgery on July 18 to remove a rib. The goal was to free compressed nerves traveling from his shoulder to his armpit, allowing them to function normally again. For much of this season, Harvey was pitching without complete feeling in his arm and fingers.

“When you lose that sensation, man, it’s scary for a pitcher,” Boras said. “You don’t know. He’s sitting here struggling and he’s struggling and he’s struggling, and it’s so mentally stressful not to be able to execute.”

I am little more optimistic with Harvey than other pitchers coming back from other elbow surgeries because the injury wasn’t because of damage to his arm.

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In March, I covered my Bold Predictions for 2016. Today we’ll keep score. No half points or gimmicks. Most of these will be incorrect. If most of them weren’t incorrect I’d probably be doing this wrong – wouldn’t be bold enough. Like at the time, the purpose was hopefully to give you some insight into why I liked specific players for 2016. Hopefully that was helpful.

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

In March, I pegged Santana as a guy I liked a lot, betting on him to finish in the top-15 OF in Ottoneu FGpts leagues. At the time, I thought he could outperform the likes of Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, and Adam Jones… Oh boy… None of those guys were good this year, right (wincing)?

Then Domingo hurt is elbow. So, this one looks bad in retrospect. I actually liked his production this year at a .343 wOBA and will probably buy again this next year (given the expected price drop). That being said, if you invested heavily, you were probably disappointed – even though he was a capable 4th/5th OF when on the field.

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2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

At the time I cited playing time. Claining that I liked Jaso to play more games than he had over the past few season. I was correct on that front. Jaso played 132 games in 2016. However, he only started 100 of those 132 and his playing time was cut by year end. Looking forward, the outlook is bleak for Jaso. He didn’t retain 1B eligibility and the team also has Josh Bell. So it looks like playing time will be an issue going forward. Jaso did provide a .335 wOBA for 2016 – that’s still a useful role player – but a ways off of a number 2 OF I thought he could be at the start of the year. Add him to the dollar bin of guys for next year.

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3. Vince Velasquez will outproduce Raisel Iglesias

It seemed like Iglesias was everyone’s favorite sleeper to start the year. Then he got hurt. Then shifted to the bullpen.Velasquez ended up outscoring him by about 80 points on the year (Iglesias got some RP innings that boosted his total) and produced $5 more of value.  If you invested in Velasquez – esspecially if you sold on his early season success – you probably turned a nice profit for yourself. The key for Ottoneu is if can cut down on the HR (14.9% HR/FB) and last longer into outings (on average he lasted just over 5 IP per outing).

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4. Edwin Encarnacion will be a top-4 1B

Encarnacion had a good year – Scoring 1000pts in a season is nothing to sneeze at. You were probably happy with the production if you owned him. However, everyone hit in 2016 and David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Rizzo outproduced him in 2016. Those are some good names. Certainly Encarnancion wasn’t disappointing, but we will chalk another one up to the loss column here.

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5. No RP will produce $20 of value.

Another loss. Kenley Jansen was fantastic. Zach Britton didn’t allow a run for most of the year. Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller were both traded out of New York, which helped their value. Each of those name comfortably surpassed $20 of value and there are a couple of other you can probably make a case for Melancon, Betances, Familia, etc. The one thing to take from this is that there was decent turnover after the most elite tier of RP. The elite guys are great, but there were a ton of pop-up candidates as well Addison Reed, Will Harris, Kyle Barraclough, etc.  Those guys churned some large profits in 2016.

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6. Danny Valencia will be a top-60 OF

Another win! According to end of season values, Valencia was the 50th Ranked OF in 2016. If you invested in him cheaply – he didn’t cost a ton preseason – you were probably able to get some nice value out of him (4.96 PPG and a .342 wOBA) . He only played 130 games, but given Ottoneu’s large rosters and platoon ability he was (at worst) a perfect depth piece.

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7. David Peralta will be a top-8 OF

I still like you David. I just need you to stay healthy next year. Currently on the 60DL, Peralta only saw the field for 48 games in 2016. The production was dismal (.308 wOBA and 4.1 PPG). I would bet that some of this production was due to his injury, but regardless – if you invested heavily in Perlata, it was crushing. I really like him as a cheaper piece in 2017, but he isn’t worth much at this point.

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8. No rookie will produce $15 of value

Well hello there, Corey Seager. I thought he would make me look dumb on this one. What I didn’t count on was Gary Sanchez, Trea Turner, Trevor Story, and Aledmys Diaz also topping $15 of value. On the pitching side Edwin Diaz came close, I’ll give it to him (with rounding). It wasn’t the historic Rookie class of 2015, but each of these players are likely pillars of any team they are on.

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9. Maikel Franco will be a top-2 3B

This is probably the worst of all of them. Franco ended the year as the 14th ranked 3B. His .311 wOBA and 4.53 PPG is close to the definition of replacement level. On top of that, several other 3B outproduced what I expected at the beginning of the year – Beltre, Seager, Longoria, Lamb, Turner, Castellanos, and Healy were all great sources of production. If this one hurt you, you weren’t alone. Franco burned me as well in 2016.

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10. By season’s end, Justin Vibber will own 85% of all Clayton Blackburns in Ottoneu

This one was mostly for fun. Clayton Blackburn had a down year and didn’t make the majors,and Justin cut bait on all his shares. Blackburn is only owned in ~4.5% of leagues, so if Justin kept his shares I may have actually got this one right. Justin, I blame you personally for not letting me hit .300.

I’m in the process of getting ahead of myself. I’ve compiled a Way Too Early Ranking for every position, and those will be released soon. Before that, we need to finish reviewing what happened in 2016. But like I said, I’m ahead of myself so let’s put the 2016 review on hold for another day.

Most of the questions I’m getting from readers are about keepers. Positional scarcity and opportunity cost are important factors in choosing a keeper or deciding to execute a trade. First we need to know how many options we have at each position. Here’s a table. Behold.

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