Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 13th, 2016

Chat transcript below:

2:06
Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! Get out of that fetal position, we have baseball again today.

2:10
Paul Sporer: We’ll start in a just a couple minutes. Let’s let some questions build in the queue.

2:17
Minty: How confident are in in Alex Reyes as a keeper SP?

2:19
Paul Sporer: In terms of whether or not they’ll keep him there? I think he’s a starter next year. He’s gonna struggle for walks, but the upside is too rich to pass up in most formats

2:19
Rawls: Should Kanye venture into Nerdcore Rap?

2:19
Max Power: Paul, if you had a fuego nerdcore hiphop verse, what would it be about?

2:19
Paul Sporer: LOL that Trebek clip was amazing

2:20
Paul Sporer: Don’t bring that nerd shit at Trebek – https://twitter.com/sporer/status/786643692924772352

2:20
Paul Sporer: Max, I’d have to get in the studio and work on some fire. Don’t have a freestyle ready

2:20
Andrew: 10 team dynasty league, can you rank addison russell, anthony rendon, yelitch, miggy. And is yelitch really a top 20 talent for dynasty like cockroft says?

2:26
Paul Sporer: Miggy, Yelich, Addy, and Rendon… Yelich and Addy are REALLY close. I know Yelich had a much better AVG and I trust him for AVG more, but I still see stardom for Russell

2:26
Paul Sporer: Not sure I’d go top-20 for Yelich, but he is a handsome devil

2:27
Connor: What are your thoughts on whether or not Hillary is fit for the Presidency?

2:27
Paul Sporer: LOL. Connor is referencing this gem: https://twitter.com/sporer/status/786646127927930880

2:27
Todd: Do you see Bryce Harper being a top 4 pick next year?

2:28
Paul Sporer: So far, no. He’s gone 9 in the two mocks I’ve been in, including once to me. I think he’s still a first rounder, but it’ll be toward the backend. There may be a random draft here and there where he goes early 2nd, but that’s the lowest he’ll go

2:28
Buff: Toles or Altherr, next year and career?

2:32
Paul Sporer: I’m really intrigued by Toles. Former 3rd rounder who lost his way in the minors and was out of baseball for ’15 before rebounding. No surprise the Dodgers have him bc TB was who drafted him (Friedman connection). I think we can see him running more next year, too. Ran a lot in the minors. I think for fantasy I’m gonna go Altherr next year, but Toles really isn’t too far behind. I think Toles will be cheaper so you can reasonably get both in the late rounds.

2:33
Paul Sporer: Altherr barely hit when he returned this year (.597 OPS) and still put up a 12 HR/20 SB pace

2:33
Sean: Benintendi or Mazara for final keeper slot in 12 team, keep 8 league for next 3 years? OBP, SLG, XBH, BB, K extra categories, no specific needs for final spot. Where would Greg Bird slot in next year among 1B with these settings? top 15?

2:35
Paul Sporer: Gahhh so tough to choose between those two. Gimme Maz by a hair. I’m not sure Bird is quite top 15 right off the bat, but I’m really interested in his power production. Wonder if there will be any carryover from the shoulder

2:36
Connor: In my Keeper league, we’re allowed one Rookie Keeper (a player who passed the rookie threshold during the season). I have Naquin, Story, and Mazara. Who would you keep?

2:39
Paul Sporer: I’d go with Story over Mazara here. Naquin is a distant third in this trio. Story has big Ks, but sign me up for that insane power in Coors

2:39
Srozis: ??

2:39
Paul Sporer: <3

2:39
Minty: 4 years of Alex Reyes or 2 of Villar?

2:39
Paul Sporer: 2 of Villar

2:39
Cory S.: Plan on keeping two out of Kluber, DeGrom, and Carrasco. Kluber seems like a lock, so which injured SP do you gamble on?

2:42
Paul Sporer: Hmmm, that’s tough. I’ll go Carrasco since his injuries haven’t been arm-related and have been rather flukish

2:42
Billy Jack: Are you a fan of aaron sanchez next year?

2:46
Paul Sporer: Here’s the thing, i won’t be stocking up after the big IP spike, but there’s no way I can completely run away, either. I just love the stuff too much. There is data out there that says a big IP spike alone doesn’t lead to injury, but his velo, being in the injury nexus, having some injury scares coming up, and of course just being a pitcher are enough to warrant some caution. I’ll have to see where his price is at, but I suspect it’ll be high.

2:47
Paul Sporer: The Mets rotation was decimated by injuries this year after their big spikes and that sampling alone doesn’t *prove* anything, but if given the option between Sanchez and a similarly talent arm who didn’t go 100+ more IP over his ’15 total, I’m gonna go with the guy who didn’t spike his IP

2:47
Michelle: Urias at $9 keeper worthy in NL only?

2:47
Paul Sporer: It’s on the high end, but the talent is too much to pass up, I’d keep him

2:47
Michelle: My family and I do this really fun league where 7 of us draft MLB teams (two poor souls go unclaimed). It’s great fun, but one team tends to dominate every year. I don’t have a question, but wanted to share this with you.

2:48
Paul Sporer: So y’all each get 4 teams and then go by wins?

2:48
X: Do you play Ottoneu?

2:48
Paul Sporer: I have been in one league, but not recently. I’m dipping back in this year I think

2:49
Tommy Lasordid: Magic 8 Ball says Dodgers win. “It is decidedly so.” Agree?

2:49
Paul Sporer: I’m leaning Scherzer & the Nats if I have to pick, but it’s really tough to differentiate here

2:55
Toki: Is Felix Hernandez toast? His last two years have been pretty unkingly.

2:58
Paul Sporer: I don’t know that last year was. I know the 3.53 ERA was higher than expectations, but he still fanned 8.5 per 9 (23% rate) and had a 1.18 WHIP, but there’s no denying that this year was a struggle. His velocity is gone and there’s like a 3-5 MPH gap between his fastball and changeup now which is awful. I think he might have to figure some new things out. Maybe shift his slider into more of a cutter and throw it up 80s, low 90s as essentially his fastball bc a straight four-seamer at the same velo isn’t going to work. If his price doesn’t drop a good bit this year, I won’t be invested, but I refuse to fully quit a superstar like him

2:59
Michelle: Thoughts on Joe Ross and Aaron Nola next year?

3:02
Paul Sporer: Two really interesting arms. Nola’s elbow is scary, but the talent is tremendous. Ross is ending his season on the mound, but a balky shoulder is scary, especially with his heavy slider usage. I lean toward Nola; both should be discounted w/their injury concerns

3:02
Connor: As a final keeper with Kershaw, Scherzer, Lester, Machado as locks, who would you keep: Addison Russell, Dozier, or AJ Pollock?

3:02
Paul Sporer: I’d still go Russell, but you can make a strong case for all three.

3:03
Toki: Is Ryon Healy a top 10 3b next year? And what kind of production do you expect?

3:08
Paul Sporer: Top 10 is too lofty, but I’m really interested in Healy. Eno’s got me on board with him. I think we’ll see mid-20s pop with a .275 AVG and decent R/RBI bc I think he’ll be in the middle of the lineup

3:08
Nick: Whaaat up Paul! Looking forward to the next time you come to NYC. How are feeling about Price next year? That hard contact sure is worrisome…

3:11
Paul Sporer: Yooo! Hopefully I’ll be back up next year. The weather is already too cold for me to consider coming in the next few months, lol. It was a rough season for Price for sure, but I think he rebounds in ’17. I generally stay away from large contracts in year 1, especially SPs, but I think Price will adjust for year 2. His base skills were still fantastic. Keeping the ball in the park and perhaps a little good fortune on the BABIP will bring him back to his normal level of excellence

3:13
Dodge Ball: Chapman in round 4 or Diaz in round 7?

3:13
Paul Sporer: Both? 🙂

3:15
Paul Sporer: I might actually take the discount and go Diaz. Love Chapman, but Diaz was absolutely obscene

3:15
Tommy Lasordid: Keep five of Kershaw, Arenado, Correa, Betts, Harper, Odor. Drop Odor?

3:15
Paul Sporer: Ya, gotta drop Odor. Tough to release someone popping that many HRs at 2B, but he’s the clear drop

3:16
Dodge Ball: Who is more undervalued heading into 2017: Miggy or Greinke?

3:16
Paul Sporer: Miggy because he should still be a first rounder and probably won’t be in most leagues

3:17
Paul Sporer: I’m actually about to take him with my 2nd pick in a mock where I took Kershaw at 6. So pick 19.

3:21
Rob: So what is Gyorko now? Career year regression candidate? Juiced ball regression candidate? Adam Duvall? Brian Dozier?

3:23
Paul Sporer: Juiced ball benefactor, but I don’t see any major skills changes that really have me targeting him next year. He’s a worthy power source, but his best asset might be the triple eligibility at 2B/3B/SS

3:24
Dodge Ball: When Byun-ho Kim recovers from his injury, will he be given playing time in MIN? Is there a chance of him matching his 2016 projections (.250/.333.487, 25 HR) in 2017 or beyond?

3:24
Paul Sporer: ya I think they’ll give him a better look next year. I can definitely see that projection coming through. I’d plan around more of a .235-.240 AVG and take anything else as bonus

3:25
Dumpster Fiers: Lackey was not in your top 40. Where would you put him?

3:32
Paul Sporer: he’s 46th

3:32
Paul Sporer: (sorry, had a phone call)

3:34
Paul Sporer: It’s not that i don’t think he can continue to be successful if healthy, but the “if healthy” piece becomes more and more uncertain with each passing year. He’s been a total workhorse, but once you get past 35 years old, there isn’t that guaranteed soft decline, an injury can just decimate a guy

3:34
Toki: Follow up, is Felix a keeper in a 10 team keep 20 to you?

3:34
Paul Sporer: So a top-200 guy? Ya, I mean he was my 35th SP

3:34
X: It seems like the Rotographs chats should focus on Ottoneu more than they do. There’s got to be reader interest. And, selfishly, I want answers to my Ottoneu questions!

3:35
Paul Sporer: I hear you. I’m playing Ottoneu this year so I have an idea what I’m talking about. Maybe what we should do is have one of the Ottoneu writers do a regular chat.

3:37
Minty: How fast is that mock? I’m enjoying it.

3:38
Paul Sporer: It’s a slow mock. You can follow it here: https://t.co/9vvfjIeTlp

3:38
Michelle: Have you watched “Pitch”? If so, what are your thoughts?

3:38
Paul Sporer: I’ve only seen the first one, but I plan to watch the others, they’re on my DVR. I found it enjoyable

3:39
Tommy Lasordid: I’ve been using one of five, point-league keeper positions on Stanton for the last three years, and am getting tired of the injuries and poor results. Do I cut bait or hold on another year? Considering Strasburg or Urias instead.

3:39
Paul Sporer: I don’t know if going from Stanton to Stras is going to help quell those frustrations with an injury-riddled player

3:40
Paul Sporer: I love that Urias upside, but I can’t justify him over Stanton or Stras. I think you still go with Stanton. I get the frustration, but you’re getting mid-20s HRs even if he fails like this year and there’s still elite upside

3:41
Paul Sporer: Though the percentage chance of that elite upside panning out is much lower these days

3:41
Toki: Is this peak Dozier or could there be more in him?

3:42
Paul Sporer: Has to be peak, I can’t see how there’d be more. He absolutely raked in the last four months of the season, but I think he’ll dip back toward low-30s homers unless his 18% HR/FB maintains

3:42
Gary: Where does my dawg Benintendi go in a 12 team AL only OBP? He a top 100 man?

3:45
Paul Sporer: Top 100 is too high, IMO. He went 121 in the mock I’m done with ahead of too many OFs I’d have taken instead – J Up, K Davis, Dahl, Mazara, Pence, Puig to name a few. He’s more of a 150 guy if I’m feeling froggy.

3:45
Clif Bar: Who is the real Jake Lamb? .265/30 homer expectation over the next 3-5 years unrealistic?

3:46
Paul Sporer: No I think that’s realistic. The power can definitely go higher, too.

3:46
X: He means Byung-Ho Park, yes? Hyun-Soo Kim plays for the Orioles.

3:48
Paul Sporer: Oh ya he put Byung-ho Kim – mixing the MIN 1B and former ARI (and others) RP. Byung-ho Park was the right player. Hyun-soo Kim is in BAL and Byung-Hyun Kim doesn’t play anymore

3:48
Minty: $4 Kyle Hendricks in a $200 QS deep keeper. He’s gonna regress. Is he cheap enough that you’d hold, or still flip him?

3:48
Paul Sporer: I’d look to flip him if I could, but absent that I think you have to keep him at that price.

3:48
X: I am wholeheartedly for a Rotographs chat with one of the Ottoneu guys! No offense…

3:48
Paul Sporer: None taken! It’s not my strong suit at all

3:49
Toki: How quickly does Schwarber get C eligibility next season?

3:53
Paul Sporer: Not quickly at all? I feel like it’ll be Miguel Montero and Willson Contreras

3:53
Daren: What do you see from Jose De Leon next year? Can he be a top 40 SP? He was dominant in minors all year, but didn’t get consistent starts after the call-up

3:54
Paul Sporer: Top 40 is lofty. Here are the SPs 38 through 43 on the Player Rater this year: Shark, Hammel, Odorizzi, Archer, Wright, and Tillman. De Leon *could* reach that level, but that’d be a pretty special debut

3:54
Matt: Toles, Gsellman and Cotton are all eligble for our prospect draft this offseason. Players selected in said draft don’t count against our 5 keeper limit and have controlled salaries. In a 16 team league with deep rosters, how would you rank these guys?

3:55
Paul Sporer: I’d go Toles, Cotton, Gsellman. I really like Cotton, but gimme the hitter. I know it’s not a bankable sample, but just watching Toles for a decent handful of games left me impressed with his game. He’ll be a late round flier for me in ’17

3:55
Enlightening Round: Can you believe that there has been 128 pitchers used in 13 playoff games?

3:55
Paul Sporer: WHAT?? That’s nuts

3:55
Michelle: Thanks for chatting so long! It’s making my day! To be fair, I’m home sick, so the bar is low.

3:56
Paul Sporer: No problem! I’m sorry you’re home sick, but glad I can help. Unfortunately, I do have to get going shortly

3:56
Reinventing Rupert Jones: Where is a good source for 2017 MLB player projections?

3:57
Paul Sporer: I’m not sure any are out, but our profile pages will have some of the first ones when Steamer, ZIPS, and Depth Charts start releasing. I’m not sure of the release dates just yet

3:57
Sonny: Where is Glasnow on your 2017 radar? Stashing him this year but have no idea what to expect

3:57
Paul Sporer: I’m not super high on him. I just worry that his mechanics will make it tough to be consistent, even with his good stuff

3:57
Paul Sporer: Worthy gamble in deeper leagues, but I wouldn’t reach for him

3:58
Sonny: Pick 2: Posey, Archer, Darvish. 10 team 30 player dynasty. Have Hedges stashed

3:58
Paul Sporer: Posey and Darvish for me

3:59
Paul Sporer: OK y’all, that’ll wrap us up! Thanks so much for hanging out. Enjoy the Dodgers-Nats game tonight!

We hoped you liked reading Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 13th, 2016 by Paul Sporer!

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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