Reviewing Joe Douglas’ Ottoneu Bold Predictions

In March, I covered my Bold Predictions for 2016. Today we’ll keep score. No half points or gimmicks. Most of these will be incorrect. If most of them weren’t incorrect I’d probably be doing this wrong – wouldn’t be bold enough. Like at the time, the purpose was hopefully to give you some insight into why I liked specific players for 2016. Hopefully that was helpful.

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

In March, I pegged Santana as a guy I liked a lot, betting on him to finish in the top-15 OF in Ottoneu FGpts leagues. At the time, I thought he could outperform the likes of Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, and Adam Jones… Oh boy… None of those guys were good this year, right (wincing)?

Then Domingo hurt is elbow. So, this one looks bad in retrospect. I actually liked his production this year at a .343 wOBA and will probably buy again this next year (given the expected price drop). That being said, if you invested heavily, you were probably disappointed – even though he was a capable 4th/5th OF when on the field.

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2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

At the time I cited playing time. Claining that I liked Jaso to play more games than he had over the past few season. I was correct on that front. Jaso played 132 games in 2016. However, he only started 100 of those 132 and his playing time was cut by year end. Looking forward, the outlook is bleak for Jaso. He didn’t retain 1B eligibility and the team also has Josh Bell. So it looks like playing time will be an issue going forward. Jaso did provide a .335 wOBA for 2016 – that’s still a useful role player – but a ways off of a number 2 OF I thought he could be at the start of the year. Add him to the dollar bin of guys for next year.

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3. Vince Velasquez will outproduce Raisel Iglesias

It seemed like Iglesias was everyone’s favorite sleeper to start the year. Then he got hurt. Then shifted to the bullpen.Velasquez ended up outscoring him by about 80 points on the year (Iglesias got some RP innings that boosted his total) and produced $5 more of value.  If you invested in Velasquez – esspecially if you sold on his early season success – you probably turned a nice profit for yourself. The key for Ottoneu is if can cut down on the HR (14.9% HR/FB) and last longer into outings (on average he lasted just over 5 IP per outing).

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4. Edwin Encarnacion will be a top-4 1B

Encarnacion had a good year – Scoring 1000pts in a season is nothing to sneeze at. You were probably happy with the production if you owned him. However, everyone hit in 2016 and David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Rizzo outproduced him in 2016. Those are some good names. Certainly Encarnancion wasn’t disappointing, but we will chalk another one up to the loss column here.

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5. No RP will produce $20 of value.

Another loss. Kenley Jansen was fantastic. Zach Britton didn’t allow a run for most of the year. Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller were both traded out of New York, which helped their value. Each of those name comfortably surpassed $20 of value and there are a couple of other you can probably make a case for Melancon, Betances, Familia, etc. The one thing to take from this is that there was decent turnover after the most elite tier of RP. The elite guys are great, but there were a ton of pop-up candidates as well Addison Reed, Will Harris, Kyle Barraclough, etc.  Those guys churned some large profits in 2016.

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6. Danny Valencia will be a top-60 OF

Another win! According to end of season values, Valencia was the 50th Ranked OF in 2016. If you invested in him cheaply – he didn’t cost a ton preseason – you were probably able to get some nice value out of him (4.96 PPG and a .342 wOBA) . He only played 130 games, but given Ottoneu’s large rosters and platoon ability he was (at worst) a perfect depth piece.

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7. David Peralta will be a top-8 OF

I still like you David. I just need you to stay healthy next year. Currently on the 60DL, Peralta only saw the field for 48 games in 2016. The production was dismal (.308 wOBA and 4.1 PPG). I would bet that some of this production was due to his injury, but regardless – if you invested heavily in Perlata, it was crushing. I really like him as a cheaper piece in 2017, but he isn’t worth much at this point.

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8. No rookie will produce $15 of value

Well hello there, Corey Seager. I thought he would make me look dumb on this one. What I didn’t count on was Gary Sanchez, Trea Turner, Trevor Story, and Aledmys Diaz also topping $15 of value. On the pitching side Edwin Diaz came close, I’ll give it to him (with rounding). It wasn’t the historic Rookie class of 2015, but each of these players are likely pillars of any team they are on.

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9. Maikel Franco will be a top-2 3B

This is probably the worst of all of them. Franco ended the year as the 14th ranked 3B. His .311 wOBA and 4.53 PPG is close to the definition of replacement level. On top of that, several other 3B outproduced what I expected at the beginning of the year – Beltre, Seager, Longoria, Lamb, Turner, Castellanos, and Healy were all great sources of production. If this one hurt you, you weren’t alone. Franco burned me as well in 2016.

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10. By season’s end, Justin Vibber will own 85% of all Clayton Blackburns in Ottoneu

This one was mostly for fun. Clayton Blackburn had a down year and didn’t make the majors,and Justin cut bait on all his shares. Blackburn is only owned in ~4.5% of leagues, so if Justin kept his shares I may have actually got this one right. Justin, I blame you personally for not letting me hit .300.

 

 

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Joe works at a consulting firm in Pittsburgh. When he isn't working or studying for actuarial exams, he focuses on baseball. He also writes @thepointofpgh. Follow him on twitter @Ottoneutrades

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