So as I do annually, I compared my personal dollar values and resulting rankings to the RotoGraphs consensus rankings (excluding my own of course) at each position before the season began and identified those I was most bullish on as my picks and those I was bearish on as my pans. Last week, Brad Johnson published the catcher end of season values and rankings, so we’ll begin by reviewing my 2016 Pod’s Picks and Pans at catcher.
Wrapping up my position-by-position look at the 2016 power surge, we hit third base and outfield today. If you missed the first two pieces, here are the catcher/first base and second base/shortstop ones.
THIRD BASE
The hot corner didn’t set any records with its power output in 2016, but the 17 hitters who popped at least 20 homers tied for the third highest ever. The previous highs had a Giants-like even year pattern with 2004 (17), 2006 (21), and 2008 (18) being the other three seasons with at least 17 hitters achieving the feat. Homers have been on the rise at third base the last three years with just eight reaching 20+ HR in 2014 and then 15 last year.
The fantasy baseball season has closed, but the game of Ottoneu continues long into the off-season (one of the hallmarks of its year-round appeal). Following Justin’s take on what happened with some of the best teams in Ottoneu this year, I’ll focus today on how one team mastered this game, presenting you with an interview from the of the 2016 Ottoneu Champions League winner, Brent Daily.
It’s not prospect season yet. It is not even close to prospect season, but I will go ahead and provide some prospect rankings for people use as they make keeper decisions and with early season drafts. As much as I a respect and use many of these sources, I do like the option of having several sources to compare to get a player’s overall skill set. I am always looking for people to talk about the flaws as most people only mention the good stuff. With just a couple of lists currently out, I had to create a few of mine own. I will start with the more traditional rankings and then move on to some I created.
Minor League Ball Read the rest of this entry »
Today, I am going to look at some hitter who missed most of 2016 and some 2017 expectations.
Kyle Schwarber (Torn knee ligaments, sprained ankle)
Schwarber has the most upside of all the players I will look at today, but his price will likely be too high for me next year. The variables in his value are playing time, health, and position eligibility.
The first key is his health. Until we can see him run and turn and hit a baseball, the results of the knee surgery and rehab will not be known. Besides the lost production, hitters with knee injuries are more likely to go back on the DL with a knee injury than any other injury. Everyone will have to wait for spring training for this answer.
Second, I am not 100% sure where he is going to play in the field. It is very unlikely he will catch again, so he will need to go the outfield with Anthony Rizzo playing first base for the Cubs. In the outfield, he will be competing against some combination of Jorge Soler, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora, and maybe Dexter Fowler (if option picked up). It is going to be tough to predict over 450 plate appearances for him.
Chat transcript can be found below!
Twice during the course of the season I highlighted Cameron Rupp for his offensive performance. In May I brought up a concern about Rupp over performing his talent level, since he had a massive and unsustainable leap in exit velocity, but I questioned exactly how much he would regress. In 2015 he had a relatively low 89mph average EV, and by the end of May he was hitting north of 96mph. A month later, in late June, I wrote about him again, by this point his EV had setting to around 92mph, and by mid to late June we had seen enough of Rupp to know the changes were real. He had a different spray chart, heat map, higher exit velocities, much more high quality batted balls, and a huge leap in offensive production.
Lets take a step back, though. Upon the conclusion of the 2015 season, the Phillies management told Rupp he needed to dramatically improve his offensive performance during the 2016 season or he could end up losing his job with the team. Rupp spent the offseason with a batting instructor he has worked with since childhood, Chris Edelstein, and together they refined his swing and approach. Their work seemed to pay off noticeably from day one this season, with his April production significantly exceeding his 2015 numbers. After a weak month of May, he went on a tear in June, July, and August where he put up the best numbers of his career. His season ended on a low note, with a September so underwhelming that it threatens to wash out the success he had during the heart of the season.Rupp had three scorching hot months, one pretty decent month, and two exceedingly weak months. He finished the season batting .252/.303/.447, with .321 wOBA, 16 HR, 36 R, and 54 RBI. Among catchers, he ranked 20th in HR, 18th in R, 13th in RBI, 17th in AVG, 27th in OBP, 8th in SLG, and 36th in strike outs. This may not be especially exciting, but there are some good signs here. Read the rest of this entry »
It was a very strange year at catcher. The top of the end of season catcher rankings don’t look too unusual with Jonathan Lucroy and Buster Posey at the top, but those full-season numbers do not capture the amazing impact three catchers who become starters midseason had. Gary Sanchez’s prospect star had faded a bit in recent seasons, but that reflected defensive doubts. Most scouts agreed that Sanchez would hit if he could field his position. Willson Contreras had become the top catching prospect, and he immediately delivered on that promise with the Cubs.
Sandy Leon was completely different. Leon made his debut with the Nationals all the way back in 2012, and Wilson Ramos was not the only reason Leon never played regularly before this season. In his 235 plate appearances from 2012-15, Leon slashed an abysmal .187/.258/.225. His .223 wOBA over that period made him roughly equivalent at the plate to Mike Leake. This season, Leon was tied with Lucroy for the third-highest wOBA of .362. He was nearly identical to Contreras in both plate appearances and production.
“Part I with a question mark?” you ask.
“Yes,” I answer. Today, I am going through every trade I made in one ottoneu league. I have no idea how this will play out, if it will lead to interesting conversation, or if you will all hate it. If you enjoy it, I will do the same for other leagues and there will be subsequent parts. If not, I won’t, and there won’t.
Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I reviewed the list of players my ESPN Home Run tracker analysis suggested had significant HR/FB rate downside this season. So today I’m going to check in on the group of players I identified as possessing serious upside. I would imagine this group would have done well simply due to the league-wide power surge. Let’s find out if that was indeed the case.