The Home Run Surge by Position (3B and OF)

Wrapping up my position-by-position look at the 2016 power surge, we hit third base and outfield today. If you missed the first two pieces, here are the catcher/first base and second base/shortstop ones.

THIRD BASE

The hot corner didn’t set any records with its power output in 2016, but the 17 hitters who popped at least 20 homers tied for the third highest ever. The previous highs had a Giants-like even year pattern with 2004 (17), 2006 (21), and 2008 (18) being the other three seasons with at least 17 hitters achieving the feat. Homers have been on the rise at third base the last three years with just eight reaching 20+ HR in 2014 and then 15 last year.

Despite the presence of veterans like Adrian Beltre (37 years old), Justin Turner (31), and a host of 30-year olds including Todd Frazier and Evan Longoria, third base has the second youngest average age of 20+ HR hitters this year behind shortstop at 27.4 years old. Shortstop was at 25.3 years old on average with six of the 15 players checking in at 23 or younger and Troy Tulowitzki being the only north of 30 (he’s 31).

Nolan Arenado 41, Todd Frazier 40, Kris Bryant 39, Josh Donaldson 37, Manny Machado 37, Evan Longoria 36, Adrian Beltre 32, Kyle Seager 30, Jedd Gyorko 30, Jake Lamb 29, Justin Turner 27, Miguel Sano 25, Maikel Franco 25, Matt Carpenter 21, Jung Ho Kang 21, Eugenio Suarez 21, and Anthony Rendon 20

I think Arenado is underrated. He went at pick 7 on average in NFBC drafts this year and he will be right around there again in 2017, but I’m beginning to think he shouldn’t go any later than 3 or 4. The only real pushback I ever hear about him isn’t even a negative: “well, he plays in Coors” which I guess is said to diminish his output somehow?!

First off, he’s tied for the 6th-most homers on the road the last two years with 38, but even if he wasn’t, who cares? He still plays in Coors and there is no imminent threat of trade whatsoever. He has back-to-back NL HR and MLB RBI crowns now. Arenado also doubled his walk rate from ’15 to ’16 while shaving a little bit off of his strikeout, too. Oh, and he turns 26 next April.

There aren’t any real surprises on this list. Maybe Gyorko, but I covered him in the 2B/SS piece. Longoria hadn’t popped 30 since his 32 in 2013, but his career-high 36 were hardly a shock. OK, maybe I can’t slough off Lamb as a non-surprise just because he was a touted power prospect. He hit 10 homers in 523 PA in 2014-15 before his 29 this year in 594 so even with his second half falloff, it was still a great – and yes, surprising – season.

Turner also set a career-high with his 27. He emerged as a power source over the last two seasons, but took it to another level this year thanks in part to a career-best 40% flyball rate. He doesn’t get cheated when he makes contact, either. His 12% soft-contact rate over the last two seasons is 9th-lowest in the league (min. 1000 PA). He’ll be 32 years old next year and had microfracture surgery this past offseason so I’m a little torn on where to draft him, but I think his price will be reasonable in the market. Eno and I discussed this very topic on the latest podcast.

I failed to mention Jonathan Villar as an on-the-cusp guy in the shortstop piece, but thankfully the comments picked me up. He was just one away from the mark, though his 20% HR/FB was way better than his previous high of 14%. If I’m making a projection, I’d say 15-17, but at that point he’s within shouting distance of that 20 mark.

Nick Castellanos was a fractured hand away from reaching 20 as he popped 18 despite missing two months. His power had come back to earth in June and July before the injury, but even the clip he maintained during those two months was 20-homer level.

Javier Baez is definitely one of the best candidates to reach the mark in 2017 and carries very appealing 3B, SS, and 2B eligibility, but I already covered him in that 2B/SS piece so head there for more on him. Danny Valencia regressed from a big time jump against righties in ’15, but was palatable enough to garner 373 PA against them and if the playing time is there again in ’17, he could push for 20, though he will be 32 years old and has only twice eclipsed 500 PA.

Luis Valbuena only needed 493 PA to pop 25 in ’15, but was limited to 342 PA this year due to a hamstring injury. If he plays, the power is there. Of course, Alex Bregman will be there all year and could push Valbuena to sign elsewhere (he’s a free agent). Meanwhile, Bregman himself could certainly be around that 20 threshold, too.

OUTFIELD

A whopping 40 outfielders hit 20+ homers which is the highest since 2008 (44), but not really close the most ever (51, 2000). In fact, this year was only the 9th-most outfielders to hit 20+ homers behind the aforementioned 2000 season as well as 1999 (47), 2004 (46), 2001 (46), 2008 (44), 2003 (44), 2002 (41) and somewhat surprisingly 1987 (41).

Mark Trumbo 47, Nelson Cruz 43, Khris Davis 42, Kris Bryant 39, Matt Kemp 35, Jay Bruce 33, Adam Duvall 33, Mookie Betts 31, Yoenis Cespedes 31, Yasmany Tomas 31, Justin Upton 31, Ryan Braun 30, Curtis Granderson 30, Mike Trout 29, Charlie Blackmon 29, Carlos Beltran 29, George Springer 29, Adam Jones 29, Brandon Moss 28, Giancarlo Stanton 27, Jackie Bradley Jr. 26, Carlos Gonzalez 25, Joc Pederson 25, Miguel Sano 25, Michael Saunders 24, Bryce Harper 24, Andrew McCutchen 24, Randal Grichuk 24, Corey Dickerson 24, Marcell Ozuna 23, J.D. Martinez 22, Jose Bautista 22, Stephen Piscotty 22, Ian Desmond 22, Gregory Polanco 22, Christian Yelich 21,Jayson Werth 21, Matt Holliday 20, Nomar Mazara 20, and Melvin Upton Jr. 20

There were plenty of surprises in this group. I mean, if you’ve ever heard us discuss Tomas on the podcast, you’d know how incredibly surprising we find his 31-homer season to be, especially in his second season. He seemed to alter his swing specifically for power with large shifts in his pull and flyball percentages. His pull rated jump nine-percentage points to 41% and the flyball rate jumped eight to 31%, a quarter of which left the yard. That 25% HR/FB rate was 4th-highest among qualified hitters with Trumbo and Chris Davis.

Duvall was one of the best stories of the year. He’s a 27-year old rookie who the Reds acquired for Mike Leake. He always showed power in the minors, including 30 homers last year between two Triple-A levels, but even with playing time, it was hard to see 33 coming in the majors.

Bradley, Polanco, and Yelich weren’t massive surprises by any stretch, but their entry into the 20-homer class a measure of growth maybe a tick or two than was expected at this point in their careers. Meanwhile, Saunders was essentially a return to a previously established level. He hit 19 back in 2012 with Seattle, so giving him the same amount of time in a much friendly hitting environment yielded a reasonable boost to a career-high 24.

Trout might’ve been a surprise on the other end. His 29 homers were the second-lowest of his amazing five year career in a season when everyone else was adding to their home run counts. I could point out that a career-high and MLB-best 116 walks cost him some at-bats, but considering how much homers rose (and his previous high of 41), you would’ve expected one in all of the 26 AB he lost to walks, as opposed to the 1.3 he would’ve hit had he kept pace with his previous 549 AB.

Looking ahead to next year, there are plenty of guys who could join the 20-homer ranks. Steven Souza has been close in both of his two seasons (16 and 17), but injuries have limited him to 110 and 120 games. Max Kepler is interesting to me. He hit 17 in his 447 PA debut, but he was more of a doubles and triples power guy in the minors with just 15 homers in 1043 minor league PA from 2014-16. He’ll probably taper his home run pace, but he’ll also get a full season of playing time.

Health has bitten Hunter Pence the last two years after a seven year run of 20+ HR seasons, but even at 34 I could see him returning to that plateau as long as he stays on the field. Speaking of veterans, Colby Rasmus missed nearly all of August with an ear infection and then the last half of September with a hip injury which left him short of his fourth 20-homer season over the last five years. He also had a career-worst performance against lefties after a spike last year.

Others I could see jumping in homers include David Dahl, Willson Contreras, Domingo Santana, Alex Dickerson, and perhaps even Byron Buxton. Buxton hit nine of his 10 homers in September, but he hit 21 all told in his 141 games between Triple-A and Minnesota.

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I almost certainly missed someone in the outfield (and maybe even third base), so who do you think could reach the 20-homer plateau next year?