MASH Report: Schwarber, Bird, Moustakas, & Pollock

Today, I am going to look at some hitter who missed most of 2016 and some 2017 expectations.

Kyle Schwarber (Torn knee ligaments, sprained ankle)

Schwarber has the most upside of all the players I will look at today, but his price will likely be too high for me next year. The variables in his value are playing time, health, and position eligibility.

The first key is his health. Until we can see him run and turn and hit a baseball, the results of the knee surgery and rehab will not be known. Besides the lost production, hitters with knee injuries are more likely to go back on the DL with a knee injury than any other injury. Everyone will have to wait for spring training for this answer.

Second, I am not 100% sure where he is going to play in the field. It is very unlikely he will catch again, so he will need to go the outfield with Anthony Rizzo playing first base for the Cubs. In the outfield, he will be competing against some combination of Jorge Soler, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora, and maybe Dexter Fowler (if option picked up). It is going to be tough to predict over 450 plate appearances for him.

Finally, know your league rules. I know in two of my leagues, his position eligibility will only be utility until he gets enough playing time at a position. In other leagues, he will be either catcher and/or outfield eligible. If a person is talking or writing about him, make sure you understand the league’s context. I could see him with 3rd round ADP as a catcher but as a utility player, he is probably 8th round material.

The one positive Schwarber has is the possibility of a trade where the Cubs pick up more pitching, especially to an AL team where he can DH. Also, I will move his status up because the team picking him up with likely do a full physical to see his health status.

A.J. Pollock (Fractured elbow, strained groin)

Pollack had an amazing 2014 season but let’s hope it isn’t his only good season. I think he can rebound from the injuries for a couple of reasons.

His two injuries, elbow and groin, have some the lowest re-injury rates for hitters. Since 2002, only four of the 106 hitters went back on the DL with an elbow injury after having one the previous season. The rate is even better with groin injuries with none of the 93 hitters going back on the DL.

Also after coming back the fractured elbow, he put up some encouraging stats in 46 PA. He was able to hit a pair of home runs and was four-for-four stealing bases.

Maybe he is “injury prone”, but I think he can put up a good 15 HR and 30 SB season. Depending on where he is getting drafted, this will be a huge value for his owner.

Mike Moustakas (Fractured thumb, torn ACL in knee)

With Moustakas, like many of the other players already mentioned, I really want to see how he runs and swings a bat during spring training. I want no sign of the injury before I totally buy in.

Before the 2016 injuries, he hit seven home runs in just over 100 plate appearances. He is a decent bet for around 20 to 30 home runs and may be forgotten by some owners. Additionally, the Royals love him and will likely play him as much as possible … if healthy.

I really like the option of picking him up in deeper leagues on the cheap and using the excess resources elsewhere.

Gregory Bird (torn labrum surgery)

I think Bird has a good chance for decent fantasy production next year. The Yankees no longer have aging veterans taking up their 1B and DH spot, so Bird is going to get some playing time.

In 2015, the to be 24-year-old hit 11 HR in 178 PA with a .261 AVG. The one issue he had was a 30% K% which is because of a below average contact rate. Besides a four-game stretch in his first season, he has never had a strikeout rate over 25% at any minor league level. I think his strikeout will really help to determine his 2017 value.

The biggest advantage we have with evaluating Bird is that he is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League. In 14 PA, he is hitting .308 and only has a7% K%. Besides the stats, some reports are coming in on him looking good such as this one from Alec Dopp of 2080.

The 23-year-old has appeared as comfortable at the plate as he did in 2015 when he slugged .529 with 11 HR in 46 games with the Yankees, working the count well and showing selectivity (one strikeout in 14 PA). The bat speed he displayed at the major league level has also been readily noticeable in Arizona, which is a promising sign that the reps he’s getting here in the desert will help him be 100% for spring training competition in March.

I was a little worried his shoulder would be as bad a Brantley’s but it seems, for now, he looks to be healthy.

Others who missed most of 2016:

• Michael Brantley (Already written up): Shoulder surgery
• Scott Van Slyke: Back irritation and wrist injury
• Andre Ethier: Fractured Leg
• Mark Canha: Strained back
• Sam Fuld: Strained shoulder