Episode 289

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette are back and talking baseball. The offseason is already filled with player movement and today we’re discussing some intriguing DFA players, the trade block, and some rumored teams for Darren O’Day and Jordan Zimmermann. They also talk way too much* about their DFS football teams.

*like two minutes, so relax already… feel better, Charmander!! 

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We know the game is changing and getting much younger as a result. We just watched perhaps the best rookie class ever. One position that has been especially enriched by the youth movement is shortstop. For a few years it has been the worst fantasy position on the diamond and next-worst wasn’t particularly close. The gap has definitely shrunk and may have done so enough to where it’s not even the thinnest position in fantasy.

Obviously the headliners here are Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, the two super-phenoms who embarrassed the league’s pitchers for 99 games apiece at the ages of 20 and 21, respectively. Many already see Correa as a first-round fantasy talent thanks in large part to his incredible power at such a premium position. Lindor won’t last too long, either. He went in the fourth round of a 15-team draft I did earlier this month, though he hasn’t yet gone deep into the seventh round of a 12-team mock that I have observed.

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A mixture of beer and orange juice is called a brass monkey. Occasionally, uncreative types will call it a beermosa. A mixture of Miller High Life and Tropicana orange juice is called disgusting. It’s also sometimes referred to as sweetened pisswater. Now that our mixology lesson is over, let’s talk about Brad Miller in his new digs.

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Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, outfielders, right-handed starters and left-handed starters. Today we round out the series with a review of the relievers.

Actual Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Results
2.3 — Trevor May, Twins
2.1 — Carson Smith, Mariners
2.0 — Ken Giles, Phillies
1.8 — Alex Colome, Rays
1.5 — Keone Kela, Rangers
1.3 — Roberto Osuna, Blue Jays

Marc’s Top 3
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays
Cam Bedrosian, Angels
Corey Knebel, Rangers

Collectively speaking, I didn’t expect rookie relievers to play a big role in the 2015 season but MLB managers have become more and more confident in handing the ball the hard-throwing youngsters in key situations.

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Say what you will about the Cincinnati Reds, but they have some useful middle infield depth. Veteran Brandon Phillips is under contract for one more season. Since he has full 10-and-5 rights (i.e. a no trade clause), the retooling Reds may have trouble swapping him elsewhere. That’s a shame for their two shortstops – Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez.

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• Not much injury news this past week. One note, I finished my annual review of the disabled list and it has been sent to the Hardball Times editors. Expect to see it run sometime in the next couple of weeks.

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ottoneu arbitration came to an end last weekend, with more than 25,000 allocations totaling more than $35,000 handed out to nearly 450 MLB and MiLB players. The results, as always are occasionally interesting, often expected and sometimes surprising.

You probably won’t be surprised, for example, to find out that Carlos Correa received the most arbitration dollars, but you might be surprised that Mike Trout and Joey Votto – neither of whom were particularly cheap in most leagues, were among the 35 leading targets.
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The little brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle, Corey Seager enjoyed a delicious cup of coffee with the Dodgers after being recalled in early September. He BABIPed his way to a .421 wOBA over 113 plate appearances after heading into the season ranked as the team’s second best prospect.

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We’ve had our first big offseason trade in the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two. Chad Young and prospect guy Marc Hulet combined for a doozy. In the aftermath of the trade, Chad and I discussed the relative value of his players versus similar guys I had available. While I’ll refer to our ottoneu league, today’s topic has implications for most keeper leagues.

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On Tuesday, Brandon Crawford was inked to a six-year, $75 million dollar extension by the Giants complete with a full no-trade clause. The 28-year old shortstop just enjoyed a breakout season that saw him hit 21 HR and knock in 84 runs, both highs at the position. The offense was added to an already-stellar defensive reputation at arguably the game’s most important position.

In fact, defense alone earned his playing time early on. Crawford, a fourth-round pick from 2008, debuted in 2011 after the hopes of one final kick from Miguel Tejada fell through for the Giants. He was called up in late-May as a 24-year old after Tejada managed a paltry .522 OPS through the team’s first 50 games. The 37-year old had also shifted over to third base by the start of May, leaving shortstop to 31-year old journeyman Mike Fontenot.

Crawford was never a big-time prospect coming up. He barely made San Francisco’s Top 10 from Marc Hulet prior to his debut, but the lack of hype was because of his bat. His defense was always seen as big league-capable. Hulet suggested he could become an Adam Everett-type or maybe even a J.J. Hardy clone with less power if his bat improved. In his debut, he looked a lot like the former with a 68 wRC+ in 66 games. Everett was a career 65 wRC+ (albeit with excellent, best-in-the-league level defense).

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