Taylor was one of 16 players with at least 14 HR and 16 SB in 2015. The group included luminaries like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, and Ryan Braun and obviously Taylor’s inclusion doesn’t mean he’s destined to reach their heights. In fact, his .640 OPS was easily the lowest of the bunch (Brett Gardner .742) and it netted a 72 OPS+, 30 points lower than second-worst (Charlie Blackmon 102).

Working in his favor is the fact that Taylor was just a rookie and second-youngest by age at 24 (third-youngest overall as Machado and Betts were both 22) so his deficiencies are understandable. Plus, he played just 20 games at Triple-A before reaching the majors. The biggest difference in Taylor’s game compared to the entire rest of the group is that he strikes out a ton. His 31% strikeout rate was the highest of the 16 players and Justin Upton was the only other one to top 25%. The swing-and-miss wasn’t new for Taylor, he had a 25% rate in 2189 minor league PA.

I’d feel much better about a 2016 breakout if he didn’t whiff so much, but let’s see if there are reasons for optimism.

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Episode 290

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris are talking trades! This mega-trade episode covers all the big moves we’ve seen so far from Craig Kimbrel to Cameron Maybin and everything in between. We also discuss the early signings and qualifying offers that were accepted.  Read the rest of this entry »

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When I wrote about Paul Goldschmidt earlier in the offseason, part of my analysis focused on when he would be available in the first round. I assumed Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Clayton Kershaw would absorb the first three picks, leaving Goldy as the consensus fourth overall selection. However, there are a handful of players I could justify taking ahead of Goldschmidt. His teammate, A.J. Pollock, is one of them.

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When the 2013 season ended, Jay Bruce was 26 and coming off of three straight 30-homer seasons. Sure, he struck out a bit much, and had some issues defensively, but he was a young man in his prime, a bankable asset, an easy way to inject power into your lineup. Since then, he’s slashed .222/.288/.406 with 22 homers per 600 plate appearances over two seasons.

What happened?

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For the first time this year, I decided to compare my Pod Projections to Steamer and discuss the players we disagreed on most. Of the hitters we both projected, it was clear I was much more optimistic than Steamer on the whole. However, for Giancarlo Stanton I was actually significantly more pessimistic.

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection and Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. However, I included Steamer’s actual PA projection in that column. Also included are the player’s 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

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Last Wednesday, I explored the the fantasy market value of expensive stars like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw. My colleague Chad Young used a unique methodology to discover that Trout was most valuable to ottoneu owners when he cost $65 or less.

We both project Trout to produce more than $65 of value, but the data implies it’s hard to construct a full roster around him if he costs more. Personally, I think the case for contending with an expensive player depends upon finding bargains elsewhere. You just have to be the right owner for the job.

Today, I’ll cover my continuing efforts to trade at least two of Trout ($62), Kershaw ($64), and Zack Greinke ($36). Obviously, in terms of cost, one of those is not like the others. While, I view all three as possessing comparable overall value, I’ll be focusing on the two $60 guys today.

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Bryce Harper finally did it. It was over five years ago when he was drafted #1 overall by the Nationals. This past season, the 22-year-old became the top fantasy player with one of the best seasons ever. He will not even be 25 next season, so the only direction he can is up, right? Actually, it’s better to tap the brakes on the Harper love, especially when it comes to his power.

Let’s start with a few facts on Harper everyone should know:

1. He is young.
2. He was probably the most hyped hitting prospect ever.
3. He had a great 2015 season.

In an early industry draft, Harper was taken #1 overall. Even with the above facts, I just can’t take him #1 for two reasons.

Reason #1: Mike Trout Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Austin Hedges, C: This young catcher parlayed defensive acumen into a second round selection in the 2011 draft. His defence continued to be ahead of his offence while ascending through the minors and it completely took a backseat during his MLB debut in 2015. With offensive-minded Derek Norris also on hand in San Diego, Hedges will likely be relegated to a back-up role — or more time in Triple-A to try and find at least a little more authority in his swing.

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It’s outfield week here at RotoGraphs, so I’ll begin the festivities by reviewing my preseason Pod’s Picks at the position. Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew.

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The 2015 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. After moving our way through the infield, we roll around in the green grass of the outfield.

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