Corey Seager Impresses

The little brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle, Corey Seager enjoyed a delicious cup of coffee with the Dodgers after being recalled in early September. He BABIPed his way to a .421 wOBA over 113 plate appearances after heading into the season ranked as the team’s second best prospect.

After tearing up Double-A, paired with Jimmy Rollins‘ offensive struggles, chants for Seager’s name got louder and louder as the season progressed. After just 86 powerful plate appearances in double-A, Seager was promoted to Triple-A, where he found the pitching quite a bit more challenging. His BABIP fell back down to Earth to just below .300, while his ISO plummeted. There was one silver lining, and that was the massively improved strikeout rate he posted in Double-A mostly carried over to Triple-A.

When Seager was recalled as part of the standard round of September call-ups, the assumption was that he would fill a utility role. Instead, he garnered a significant number of starts as Rollins dealt with a nagging finger injury. At the plate, Seager did everything right. His walk rate, which had essentially been in free fall at the minor league level, spiked, he showed excellent power, and he hit nary a pop-up, which certainly helped boost his BABIP all the way to .387.

It’s not often, of course, that a hitter performs better at the Major League level than he did just months earlier at Triple-A. But that’s exactly what Seager did, as he outperformed even the most optimistic of expectations. It was a tiny sample, for sure, but you can’t really fluke your way into an above average walk rate that actually represented a new career high at any professional level.

What’s interesting is that he was able to maintain a good strikeout rate while enjoying that walk rate jump, all the while his Swing% and SwStk% were above the league average. Swinging more typically results in fewer walks, but since he swung and missed more often, he was able to see more pitches than if he made better contact and put those pitches in play. That type of plate discipline doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy feeling inside, so something would seemingly have to give in 2016.

Amazingly, Seager was able to post an ISO above .200, despite hitting fly balls at just a 26.6% rate. I don’t expect him to come near that 19% HR/FB rate again, so he’s going to have to get that fly ball rate above 30% to be a real asset in the home run category. Unfortunately, since he’ll only chip in a couple of steals, fantasy owners are banking on the power to drive his fantasy value.

With few exceptions, Seager has had a history of posting inflating BABIP marks in the minors. Well, at least before his stint at Triple-A this year. But ground balls by a hitter with above average speed, plus few pop-ups is a recipe for success. Whether he sustains that mix next year is anyone’s guess.

With all the other exciting sophomores getting more attention, it’s possible Seager slips under the radar, even with his excellent September performance. Normally, he’s the type of player who would be a near lock to be overvalued. But I’m not so sure about it. In fact, I’m rather curious where fantasy owners will peg his value. I don’t expect a big breakout, but he could very well be a solid across the board contributor.