The Reds Shortstop Logjam
Say what you will about the Cincinnati Reds, but they have some useful middle infield depth. Veteran Brandon Phillips is under contract for one more season. Since he has full 10-and-5 rights (i.e. a no trade clause), the retooling Reds may have trouble swapping him elsewhere. That’s a shame for their two shortstops – Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez.
Eventually, Cozart is expected to start at short with Suarez sliding to the keystone. Cozart is best known for above average defense. Before a knee injury prematurely ended his season, he was in the midst of a breakout campaign. He hit .258/.310/.459 with nine home runs in 214 plate appearances.
Cozart is an extreme pull hitter. In many ways, he’s not dissimilar to Brian Dozier. Cozart makes more contact than the Twins star, and they both feature consistently low BABIPs. That’s what happens when you have predictable tendencies. Dozier is obviously the more consistent power bat, but Cozart was on an easy 25 home run pace when he was injured.
We sometimes use fly ball distance as a proxy for power. Personally, I find it most informative when comparing to past seasons of the same player. Last season, Cozart averaged 285 feet with his fly balls. He was comparable to players like Brian McCann, Chris Colabello, and Francisco Cervelli. It doesn’t really tell us much by itself. However, in 2014, Cozart averaged just 258 feet per fly ball. His 2013 season averaged 260 feet. Compared to himself, he became a lot more powerful.
His ability to maintain his new power will determine his viability as a fantasy asset in 2016. As far as I can tell, every peripheral besides fly ball distance remained consistent with past seasons. Even his hard and soft hit rates are the same. He hit his hard contact harder. I honestly don’t know if that’s sustainable.
We touched upon the other problem with Cozart – he’s predictable. The book on him is very simple – don’t throw inside. Observe:
His ISO heat map looks very similar.
After Cozart landed on the disabled list, the Reds called upon Suarez. Originally acquired for Alfredo Simon in a theft from the Tigers, Suarez is a bat first shortstop. In about two-third of a season, he gave away about 12 runs on defense. Not good. It’s why he’s widely expected to swing to second base.
Suarez’s glove lags behind his bat. He hit .280/.315/.446 with 13 home runs in 398 plate appearances. He has 20 home run power with shortstop eligibility, and he should continue to post a solid batting average. Regression will eat into his .341 BABIP, but he should make up for it by eventually nudging his strikeout rate below 20 percent (23.6 percent last season).
He has some of the same flaws as Cozart – namely a pull-happy approach. However, he still works up the center of the field more consistently than his teammate, and he made consistently harder contact too. Despite the quality of contact, his average fly ball was just 275 feet.
Both hitters benefit from Great American Band Box. It’s arguably the second most homer friendly park after Coors Field. With Phillips likely to man second base for one more season, Suarez will probably wind up biding his time in the minors. Cozart’s superior defense ensures he’ll get the first shot to start so long as he’s healthy.
Long term, Suarez has the more reliable bat. He reminds me of Jhonny Peralta at the plate. He’s never going to set the world afire, but he should develop into a consistent hitter.
There’s still a lot of offseason for things to change in Cincinnati. Right now, one of their starting quality shortstops is going to be without a job. They could still both wind up as valuable late-draft targets.
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Suarez might actually end up playing LF for the Reds. If he does, the combination of regular playing time and shortstop eligibility left over from last year could make him an attractive target, at least in deep leagues.
Also, the log jam in the infield is even more severe than you imply: Phillips is around for two more years, not just one, so he’ll be blocking one of the current shortstops that much longer.
yeah, it’s very unlikely that suarez is going back to the minors at this point. there’s actually quotes from the manager about how he expects both to be regulars next year –
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/redsblog/2015/09/14/eugenio-suarez-has-been-impressive-since-taking-over–cozart/72287706/
right now you could pencil him in left, but you also feel like the reds may look very different in a month or two. and as that happens, suarez, starting out at shortstop, can move almost anywhere – 2B, 3B, corner OF… CF i don’t know, but he hit too well to go down. so yeah, he probably ends up a 2B long-term, but if phillips stays for the next year or two they can shoehorn suarez in pretty much anywhere on the field, and it seems very likely that they will.
“Even his hard and soft hit rates are the same. He hit his hard contact harder. I honestly don’t know if that’s sustainable.”
He changed his swing. His load last year (before he got hurt) had his hands much lower than previous years (somewhere out there MLB.com did a clip on it). It is not 100% that he can sustain his seemingly new-found power, but I believe that the change in mechanics has a lot to do with it. If he finds some plate discipline, he could really come into his own offensively instead of being a glove-first and glove-only player.
And if Adam Wainwright hadn’t gotten hurt, we would have won 110 games this year. Unlike you guys, though, we understand that what-if’s mean nothing so we decided to actually be good instead of hoping we might be good if everything breaks right.
And that’s why they are the best fans in baseball, folks. They understand how much it helps the team when they talk trash on the internet. They know that every time they show up and run their mouths, the team wins another game. And they know how important it is for them to take credit for the things the team does, as Cardinals Fan above showed us with his use of “we” when talking about the cards accomplishments. They are the secret to the Cardinals success!
Best fans in baseball, indeed.
you actually believe someone who named himself “Cardinals Fans” is actually a Cardinals fan? Got a bridge to sell you.
I bet Cardinals fans are fun at parties!
Phillips has 2/27 left on his deal which might be more of a deterrent to him being traded than his no trade rights, Cozart just two yrs left as well, plus turning 30 of bad knee injury, they might hope Mets or Padres give them something for him and live with suarez at ss for now
It’s highly unlikely that Suarez will be sent to the minors. The guy is a hitter and the Reds need offense. Suarez will be at shortstop if Cozart is not fully recovered from his severe injury. If Phillips agrees to a trade, then Suarez is at second base. It that doesn’t work out, he’ll be a super sub for the Reds in 2016.
This is popular sentiment. Let me put it another way – he’s going to play every day. Now that Bruce is being shopped more aggressively, I could see Suarez moving to the outfield. If Suarez wouldn’t be a starting outfielder, I would assume he continues to work on his SS defense in Triple-A.
is there an echo in here