It’s projection time! Welcome to the first edition of the 2013 Pod Projections. Last year I started the Pod Projection series and in it, I explained the process behind my projections of the five fantasy categories for various players who were most interesting. I included an introduction that described the process in a general sense, so refresh your memory by checking it out again.

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Last time around, I recapped all the National League starting pitchers that had been taken so far in our Rotographs staff mock draft. The biggest names, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke, Gio Gonzalez, et c. are all unsurprisingly already off the board, but the names that come in this set and next week’s are perhaps a bit more interesting. At the very least, this is surely a more volatile group! Read the rest of this entry »

It’s 2013. I just drafted Lucas Duda again.

I just can’t quit him I guess. No, I’m not a glutton for punishment. I can give you the caveats — it was pick #328 in a 14-team league with five outfielders — and we can talk about Lucas Duda specifically, but that might not be the point in the end.

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Yesterday, Eno Sarris posted another installment of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Rounds 11 through 15. You had the usual opportunity to comment on picks that you liked or didn’t like and while your silence with regard to my selections tells me that no one thought any of mine were either reaches or wasted picks, I would still like to do a little crowdsourcing here and find out where everyone stands on particular players and where they are going in drafts from now through the start of the 2013 season. Welcome to Bargain or Bust. Read the rest of this entry »

The FanGraphs Experts League has been a relatively slow moving league with regards to trades. I am told this is fairly common in experts leagues (my dubious standing as an expert makes it difficult for me to validate this on my own).

But in the last week, we have had a veritable flurry of trade activity, with not one, not two, but THREE TRADES going down in a 48 hour period.They are intriguing trades on their own, but also have some good lessons that I think can help all ottoneu players make final moves before the January 31 roster deadlines.

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After 15 rounds in Rotographs’s 12-team ridiculously early draft, 13 second basemen have been drafted. A few surprises have popped up, but again in 2013, the 2B position has it talent spread out pretty evenly.

Note: Aaron Hill was not included when the article first ran. He has been now included.

To begin with, here are the Oliver Projections for the 2B qualified players who have been drafted from rounds 1 to 15:

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Chase Headley may have churned out the most surprising performance in baseball last season. While Headley was regarded as a decent third baseman in past seasons, he provided little power at his position. That changed drastically in 2012. Headley mashed 31 home runs despite playing half his games in a stadium that severely limits power. There were rumors that the San Diego Padres could make Headley available during the offseason, but the team vehemently denied they would entertain the possibility. With the team re-signing veterans Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, they seem to think they can compete for the division relatively soon. In order to do that, they’ll need Headley to sustain his offensive gains.

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Today we take a look at the next five rounds of the early RotoGraphs mock draft. As usual, I have pulled out the American League starting pitchers selected in these rounds and compared their spots with where each was taken during last year’s mock. This is easily the largest group yet, are you as excited as I am? Let’s take a gander.

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We gave you rounds one through five, then rounds six through ten, and now it’s time to start the double digits of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft up for real.

I use these rounds, in my typical draft, to get relievers and starting pitchers, with a position player that dropped too far mixed in here and there. It’s not useful to make a decree about what these round should mean — every draft is different — but I generally find that the positions with the most quantity (starting pitchers and outfielders) provide the best opportunity for top-half production for bottom-half prices in these rounds.

And, since every draft is different, you’ll see that in this particular iteration, I ended up with only one starter (allbeit one I loved) and picked mostly position players. Maybe it was an over-reaction — I picked Neil Walker because the bottom half at second base is just terrible, and Jesus Montero because I like his quantity if not his quality just yet, and I also didn’t want a bottom-three catcher, and I picked Shane Victorino because I wanted speed with some power in the outfield — but it was a reaction to the way the draft was going either way.

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As many RotoGraphs readers are keenly aware, I commandeered the “Two Start Starters” pieces for pretty much the entire season in 2012. Today, I’m going to give a bit of my methodology out, and at the end ask if there’s any way I can better serve you, the readers. Read the rest of this entry »