RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 11-15
We gave you rounds one through five, then rounds six through ten, and now it’s time to start the double digits of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft up for real.
I use these rounds, in my typical draft, to get relievers and starting pitchers, with a position player that dropped too far mixed in here and there. It’s not useful to make a decree about what these round should mean — every draft is different — but I generally find that the positions with the most quantity (starting pitchers and outfielders) provide the best opportunity for top-half production for bottom-half prices in these rounds.
And, since every draft is different, you’ll see that in this particular iteration, I ended up with only one starter (allbeit one I loved) and picked mostly position players. Maybe it was an over-reaction — I picked Neil Walker because the bottom half at second base is just terrible, and Jesus Montero because I like his quantity if not his quality just yet, and I also didn’t want a bottom-three catcher, and I picked Shane Victorino because I wanted speed with some power in the outfield — but it was a reaction to the way the draft was going either way.
Surely you’ll love and hate some of these picks. Enjoy.
| # | Round.Pick Manager | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | 11.1 Petriello | Jonathan Papelbon |
| 122 | 11.2 Swydan | Josh Willingham |
| 123 | 11.3 Cwik | James Shields |
| 124 | 11.4 Wiers | Jon Lester |
| 125 | 11.5 Harrison | Tim Lincecum |
| 126 | 11.6 Zarzycki | Alex Rios |
| 127 | 11.7 Jeff Zim | Ian Kennedy |
| 128 | 11.8 Bender | Greg Holland |
| 129 | 11.9 Sanders | Angel Pagan |
| 130 | 11.10 Sarris | Shane Victorino |
| 131 | 11.11 Wade | Josh Reddick |
| 132 | 11.12 Jackie Peanuts | Matt Harrison |
| 133 | 12.1 Jackie Peanuts | Brandon Morrow |
| 134 | 12.2 Wade | Dan Hudson |
| 135 | 12.3 Sarris | Neil Walker |
| 136 | 12.4 Sanders | Mike Napoli |
| 137 | 12.5 Bender | Carlos Gomez |
| 138 | 12.6 J Zim | Matt Garza |
| 139 | 12.7 Zarzycki | Brett Anderson |
| 140 | 12.8 Harrison | Josh Johnson |
| 141 | 12.9 Wiers | David Freese |
| 142 | 12.10 Cwik | Anibal Sanchez |
| 143 | 12.11 Swydan | Sergio Romo |
| 144 | 12.12 Petriello | J.J. Putz |
| 145 | 13.1 Petriello | Dan Uggla |
| 146 | 13.2 Swydan | Rafael Betancourt |
| 147 | 13.3 Cwik | Nick Swisher |
| 148 | 13.4 Wiers | Lance Lynn |
| 149 | 13.5 Harrison | Addison Reed |
| 150 | 13.6 Zarzycki | Hunter Pence |
| 151 | 13.7 Jeff Zim | Edwin Jackson |
| 152 | 13.8 Bender | Eric Hosmer |
| 153 | 13.9 Sanders | A.J. Burnett |
| 154 | 13.10 Sarris | Joel Hanrahan |
| 155 | 13.11 Wade | Huston Street |
| 156 | 13.12 Jackie Peanuts | Drew Storen |
| 157 | 14.1 Jackie Peanuts | Mariano Rivera |
| 158 | 14.2 Wade | Nelson Cruz |
| 159 | 14.3 Sarris | Matt Harvey |
| 160 | 14.4 Sanders | Doug Fister |
| 161 | 14.5 Bender | Jim Johnson |
| 162 | 14.6 J Zim | Salvador Perez |
| 163 | 14.7 Zarzycki | Carl Crawford |
| 164 | 14.8 Harrison | Brian McCann |
| 165 | 14.9 Wiers | Marco Scutaro |
| 166 | 14.10 Cwik | Ryan Madson |
| 167 | 14.11 Swydan | Howie Kendrick |
| 168 | 14.12 Petriello | Chris Davis |
| 169 | 15.1 Petriello | C.J. Wilson |
| 170 | 15.2 Swydan | Dexter Fowler |
| 171 | 15.3 Cwik | Stephen Drew |
| 172 | 15.4 Wiers | Norichika Aoki |
| 173 | 15.5 Harrison | Chris Perez |
| 174 | 15.6 Zarzycki | Mike Minor |
| 175 | 15.7 Jeff Zim | Homer Bailey |
| 176 | 15.8 Bender | Jeremy Hellickson |
| 177 | 15.9 Sanders | Ben Revere |
| 178 | 15.10 Sarris | Jesus Montero |
| 179 | 15.11 Wade | Erick Aybar |
| 180 | 15.12 Jackie Peanuts | Brett Gardner |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Brett Gardner at pick 180 might be the steal of the draft. He had 96 SB between 2010-2011 before his 2012 campaign was almost a complete zero. I am hoping people overlook him this much in my upcoming drafts.
Yeah Gardner fell too far. I also really like E Aybar at 179.
STEAL of the draft! GET IT?
My favorites:
1. Homer Bailey at pick #175. He was a beast at the end of last season.
2. Salvador Perez at pick #162. Should be a top 5 catcher over the course of a full season.
3. Matt Harvey at pick #159. Looking for a breakout season.
Salvy certainly slipped a little too far.
I also loved Harvey at 159. I had planned on taking him at 160, but Eno stole him one pick before!
Salvy? Are you guys pals?
‘Salvy? Are you guys pals?’
Ha, nice.
Like the value especially of:
#125 – T.Lincecum
#126 – A.Rios
#145 – D.Uggla
#169 – C.Wilson
Snagging guys who had down years, or general questions surrounding them, but with huge upside is a great way to get ahead. And at this point in the draft, you wont get completely murdered if they dont work out.
Concur with all 4 of these & especially the bookend pitchers.
Yeah, but they could also all be guys that are just on the down side of their careers. Might they have better seasons then they did last year?…quite possible…but i also think its unlikely that they will have seasons like they did during their best years.
Lincecum–huge jump in HR/9 and LD% are very concerning to me, but neither are nearly as big of an issue as his nearly 2.0 mph drop in fastball velocity. there were always those that said his body would struggle to hold up over his whole career, and the fact that he struggled for basically the entire season doesnt make me anxious to draft him…ill take my chances with a guy like Brandon Morrow, who might end up not being AS good as he was last year, but COULD be an elite top 10-15 SP.
Rios–seriously, its an odd year…not a chance hes NOT a bust. betwen him and Josh Beckett, they trade off good years.
Uggla–his K% went up a full 3.5 points last year, and while his walk rate went up as well, his ISO was a whopping 52 points lower than his career average. his contact % was way down last year, and furthermore, his Z-Contact% went down 4.0 points, which seems to be a pretty significant drop…oh and his IFFB% has gone from 6.8% in 2010, to 11.9% in 2011, and finally, 16.9% in 2012. thats actually ridiculous. that means he’s basically hitting an infield pop-up once every game…and also indicates to me that he’s pressing at the plate(which contradicts the higher BB/9 though) and/or swinging for the fences…either way…im avoiding at all costs too. id prolly rather have Kendrick, and pray he gets slotted into the 2-hole ahead of Hamilton, Pujols, and Trumbo.
Wilson–quite frankly, the guy just always outperformed his peripherals and was seemingly getting lucky for almost 2.5 years…i think his luck just ran out to some extent. still a great SP in the league, but not a dominant ace by any means. i would prolly draft him here, but i wouldnt call him a steal given that guys like FIster and Harvey were taken right before him.
Total homer comment, but Lester at #124 is pretty good. Offense is still solid, Farrell is already fixing his mechanics… love him in the mid-rounds!
Ben Revere at 177 seems like very nice value. I suspect he’ll end up close to 100 on the year end player rankings, so for me that’s a player to target as undervalued.
Dan Hudson at 134 is a brutal pick for my money. The guy is hurt, and Brett Anderson and Josh Johnson went a few picks later. I like Wade’s other choices, but this one I could not figure out.
Agree on Hudson. He’s not even going to be available to the D’Backs until July at the earliest. Besides Johnson and Anderson, other pitchers who went later include Fister, Bailey, Hellickson, all of whom should blow Hudson away in value. What was he thinking?
What surprises me the most in regards to Revere’s projections is a lack of Runs. In my mind, the only way he cracks the top 100 is with Runs. I would imagine you’re getting a .290-.305 BA (I have him at .295 personally) and 35-45 steals with minimal to no help in HR and RBI. I currently have him at only 70 runs but I may earmark that as a floor rather than a true projection.
alex rios at 126?!? yes please.
Anyone else surprised that Nick Markakis (.359 wOBA) hasn’t come off the board yet? I know he was injured to end the year but he’s played at least 157 games in the each of the previous 5 seasons. The power was back last year (13 HR in only 471 PA) after the abdominal surgery and he’s always provided a decent average.
Really no Anthony Rizzo yet??