2B: Early Draft Results
After 15 rounds in Rotographs’s 12-team ridiculously early draft, 13 second basemen have been drafted. A few surprises have popped up, but again in 2013, the 2B position has it talent spread out pretty evenly.
Note: Aaron Hill was not included when the article first ran. He has been now included.
To begin with, here are the Oliver Projections for the 2B qualified players who have been drafted from rounds 1 to 15:
| Draft Position | Name | PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 7 | Robinson Cano | 686 | 623 | 104 | 30 | 97 | 5 | 3 | .303 | .362 | .525 |
| 30 | Dustin Pedroia | 609 | 538 | 90 | 16 | 64 | 17 | 6 | .287 | .358 | .448 |
| 36 | Ian Kinsler | 662 | 582 | 110 | 22 | 64 | 20 | 6 | .258 | .341 | .441 |
| 49 | Ben Zobrist | 658 | 560 | 82 | 17 | 86 | 17 | 6 | .261 | .357 | .435 |
| 56 | Jason Kipnis | 536 | 480 | 69 | 13 | 58 | 15 | 4 | .254 | .324 | .395 |
| 68 | Brandon Phillips | 653 | 598 | 92 | 18 | 74 | 15 | 7 | .279 | .328 | .429 |
| 69 | Jose Altuve | 467 | 434 | 55 | 10 | 46 | 19 | 19 | .278 | .322 | .407 |
| 81 | Aaron Hill | 547 | 498 | 73 | 19 | 64 | 10 | 4 | .265 | .323 | .448 |
| 86 | Danny Espinosa | 632 | 567 | 75 | 20 | 62 | 17 | 9 | .242 | .312 | .413 |
| 94 | Rickie Weeks | 598 | 522 | 84 | 22 | 59 | 10 | 3 | .250 | .342 | .436 |
| 135 | Neil Walker | 588 | 529 | 65 | 13 | 79 | 8 | 5 | .266 | .328 | .415 |
| 145 | Dan Uggla | 655 | 566 | 88 | 26 | 85 | 3 | 3 | .238 | .336 | .423 |
| 165 | Marco Scutaro | 541 | 485 | 76 | 6 | 53 | 7 | 3 | .264 | .313 | .353 |
| 167 | Howie Kendrick | 598 | 553 | 65 | 12 | 73 | 12 | 5 | .275 | .318 | .410 |
Also, here are the players with their projected stats prorated to 600 PA each. I feel last year’s rookies are being overly penalized, so I evened out the playing time.
| Rank | Name | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| 7 | Robinson Cano | 600 | 91 | 26 | 85 | 4 | 0.303 |
| 30 | Dustin Pedroia | 600 | 88 | 15 | 63 | 16 | 0.287 |
| 36 | Ian Kinsler | 600 | 100 | 20 | 58 | 18 | 0.258 |
| 49 | Ben Zobrist | 600 | 75 | 16 | 78 | 15 | 0.261 |
| 56 | Jason Kipnis | 600 | 78 | 14 | 65 | 17 | 0.254 |
| 68 | Brandon Phillips | 600 | 84 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 0.279 |
| 69 | Jose Altuve | 600 | 70 | 12 | 59 | 25 | 0.278 |
| 70 | Aaron Hill | 600 | 80 | 21 | 70 | 11 | 0.265 |
| 86 | Danny Espinosa | 600 | 71 | 19 | 58 | 17 | 0.242 |
| 94 | Rickie Weeks | 600 | 85 | 22 | 59 | 10 | 0.250 |
| 135 | Neil Walker | 600 | 67 | 14 | 81 | 8 | 0.266 |
| 145 | Dan Uggla | 600 | 81 | 24 | 78 | 3 | 0.238 |
| 165 | Marco Scutaro | 600 | 84 | 7 | 59 | 7 | 0.264 |
| 167 | Howie Kendrick | 600 | 65 | 12 | 73 | 12 | 0.275 |
No real surprise with Cano going in the first round. I was a little surprised it took until the end of the 3rd round for the pair of Kinsler and Pedroia to get picked. The next three taken were Zobrist, Kipnis and Phillips. Personally, I have Phillips ranked higher than Kipnis. After that point, the 2B just slowly got drafted, about 1 every round.
After looking at our draft, it looks like there are 4 tiers of 2B so far:
Tier 1
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Tier 3
Ben Zobrist
Brandon Phillips
Tier 4 – everyone else.
Jason Kipnis
Jose Altuve
Aaron Hill
Danny Espinosa
Rickie Weeks
Neil Walker
Dan Uggla
Marco Scutaro
Howie Kendrick
Looking at the 600 PA weighted projection, the first player drafted in Tier 4 was Jason Kipnis (pick #56) and Howie Kendrick (pick #167) was the last. Their projections have them producing almost the same stats.
Stat: Kipnis, Kendrick
Runs+RBI: 143, 138
HR: 14, 12
SB: 17, 12
AVG: .254, .275
Yes, Kipnis looks to be better, but not by much. He is definitely not 110 picks better. After the first five 2B go, all the rest of the players have multiple warts. Just draft the player to help your team at the time. Need power, get Uggla. Need steals, draft Altuve. Don’t care, wait to get the last one available.
One issue with looking at just these 13 is Zobrist and Espinosa have SS eligibility and they are likey to be drafted as shortstops. Even more decent, but not great 2B are available like Daniel Murphy and Chase Utley.
In 2013, 2B looks to be nice and deep, especially in 12 team leagues. If a team doesn’t get one of the top five 2B, don’t fret and worry about them for while. Fill out the other positions of need and get one of the relatively equal second basemen 8 to 10 rounds later.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Pretty sure Aaron Hill is more than “decent”, and not just because of last year. And he’ll definitely be taken ahead of several of the players drafted above in most leagues.
Yeah I’d take Hill over almost everyone in this tier 4. Certainly the last 3, and probably over Weeks and Walker too.
It’s just a screwup, Hill went 81st in the draft he’s going off but he obviously missed him when writing up the article.
I’d put A.Hill over Scutaro for sure, and maybe a few others on the list as well.
I’m confused. Can you explain to me again why Aaron Hill isn’t even really mentioned in this article, other than as an afterthought? Most rankings I have seen have him in their top 100 overall, yet he’s not given the time of day in this discussion. What am I missing? Thanks!
I agree with you Louie, My projections call for a .278/82/20/74/12 fantasy line – putting him easily above of Espinosa and Kendrick especially. I am much more of a stickler on breaking up tiers in my preparation because in my opinion, tiers are set up to provide the first and last game seemingly having similar seasons and maximizing your value. According to this post the top tier 4 guy of Kipnis (.280/93/17/73/26) is not really comparable to Kendrick (.283/67/12/71/13) in my opinion. Those 13 stolen bases and 26 runs work out to approximately an extra steal and two extra runs a week. In either format (H2H or Roto), thats valuable.
I disagree with your assessment on Kipnis drawing from Bill James projections averaged out with Rotochamp. My line for Kipnis looks much closer to:
.280, 93 Runs, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 26 SB
The stolen bases and higher average for Kipnis seems to set him apart from Kendrick by a full tier in my projections and makes the case for him chosen over Phillips a bit stronger – though it could go either way.
Thanks for this post!
bill james notoriously loves all hitters that have ever played baseball–personally, i look at his numbers as 75th percentile or so upside projections rather than 50/50 projections. I’d be pretty surprised if Kipnis hits .280…it’s not impossible, but even the ever-optimistic James only has him at .274. Not saying that your numbers are ridiculous (other than the BA, that’s pretty much the Fans projection), but i’d be a bit cautious projecting Kipnis that high given the potential downside, whereas Phillips has a well-established floor and I feel the variance in his performance isn’t so high. If you’re in a keeper, I’d of course be more amenable to bumping kipnis up a bit.
That’s why I average them out with Rotochamp along with Ron Shandler’s projections (picking up my book today). Rotochamp typically shoots for the floor so their sit calling for a .285 average bumps him up considering BJ had him at .274.
I don’t know… Kipnis’ plate discipline and contact rates are well above average, I can see a .280-.290 AVG out of him.
Oliver has Altuve with 19 SB and 19 CS… wat? He was 33 and 11 last year. 40 and 14 on his MLB career. Where is the 50% success rate coming from?
I don’t see how a projection system comes up with that. At least I know what not to use this year.
they also have him listed with 434 AB, guess Oliver figures he’s gonna get hurt or lose playing time. Take all projections with a grain of salt.
Also, Utley would surely be drafted ahead of a few of these guys. Mostly for his name value I’m sure, but if he stays on the field he’s just better than half of these players.
projected 7 homers and 7 steals for Scutaro. What a god awful draft pick by whoever that was.
I’d take a flier on him at the end of my draft. I did last year. At least the other guys above have some sort of upside in them.
Aaron Hill was drafted 81st overall. I figured it just had to be an oversight.
Hill was drafted in the 7th round, right?
I hate Eric Hosmer so much.
Me too, broseph.
Agree with someone above, Utley should be drafted ahead of a few of these guys. Sure, he’s a risk, but his upside is still pretty good. You can get Infante late/late or on waivers, murphy isn’t bad late. too bad seager won’t have 2b this year?
Only Wong on the horizon for prospects. i’d be all over pedroia int he 24-30 range.
“In 2013, 2B looks to be nice and deep, especially in 12 team leagues.”
Those of us in NL-only league are staring at Dan Uggla at #5 and extending our middle fingers out to you.
Is Mark Ellis going to start for the Dodgers? He was putting up some really nice runs and avg before going down with that leg injury last year. Makes for a nice flier if he starts…
Whoa wait a second…where’s Ackley??? Am I missing something here? Did he fall off a cliff this offseason and die?
Or does he just suck that bad
Ding, ding..
Nothing so sinister. He only put up a .274 wOBA last year. He was slightly held back by a .265 BABIP, but will need to improve his plate discipline (BB% 8.8%, K% 18.6%) and power (ISO .102) to gain relevance in fantasy baseball.
Positive gains are still possible as he has not yet turned 25 years old. But if he costs anything more than a late-round flier, he won’t end up on my fantasy bench on draft day.
May be a Kipnis homer, but I’m quite a bit more optimistic. I think his second-half last year was just the fatigue of his first full baseball season. His ISO and BABIP have room to improve and a minor league track record to indicate they can. I’m not banking on him repeating that SB performance, but I think he’s got a good chance at a 20/20 season.
Not to continue to pile on the Kipnis bandwagon here, but those projections above are barely replacement level – even for 2B. I get that there may be some regression coming on the base paths, but there’s a strong minor league track record of solid hit tool and plus speed here. I know he helped me win my leagues last year, but aside from the high avg in Bill James projections (and yes, i laugh at most of his optimistic projections of all mid-level talent), nothing seems that crazy out of whack to me. particularly with the lineup upgrades this offseason. Am I nuts?
Nope, +1 and goes along with my projections listed above diddy.
I’m confused. Earlier we had an article stating that 2B was pretty thin, and that if you didn’t get one of the top guys that are in your top 3 tiers, that you might as well wait a long time. Now, you’re saying 2B is really deep. So which is it? The fact that your 4th tier is listed ‘everybody else’ makes me more inclined to feel like it’s not so deep, especially when you detailed the difference between Kipnis and Kendrick.
2B is shallow for studs, but turns out pretty deep for better-than-your-catcher production.
2B is extremely deep, especially in a league that uses MI, CI and 5 OF. People confuse shallow with top end talent being thin when shallow really means the bottom end is thin.
So doesn’t that make the elite talent all the more valuable and therefore a shallow position?
Are the 2013 Oliver projections publicly available? If so, where would I find them? Thanks!