Bargain or Bust: Carlos Gomez and Eric Hosmer
Yesterday, Eno Sarris posted another installment of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Rounds 11 through 15. You had the usual opportunity to comment on picks that you liked or didn’t like and while your silence with regard to my selections tells me that no one thought any of mine were either reaches or wasted picks, I would still like to do a little crowdsourcing here and find out where everyone stands on particular players and where they are going in drafts from now through the start of the 2013 season. Welcome to Bargain or Bust.
I’m a big fan of mock drafts, having done upwards of a dozen already, and am a strong proponent of utilizing ADP rankings and trends to prepare for the numerous snake drafts that I will be doing come the end of March (see side note below). This series will highlight players who seem to be garnering some extra attention this spring, compare some of their ADPs throughout the mock world, and discuss whether or not you think they are going to high, too low or, right where they should be going. In the end, this should help us all when it comes time for our actual drafts.
| Carlos Gomez, OF MIL | |
| RotoGraphs Mock Draft Position: | 137 |
| Mock Draft Central ADP: | 217.86 |
| NFBC ADP: | 122.17 |
What a difference a year makes. During the winter prior to the 2011 season, Gomez was tearing it up in the Dominican League and I had hopes that as he was entering his age-25 season he would finally blossom and live up to the hype that was thrown his way back when he was a prospect being traded for Johan Santana. That never came to fruition and as discussed in a Kicking Rocks piece back then that lamented over his failure, a number of you readers chastised me for even thinking that he may be good. Well, after last season’s second half that saw Gomez bat .278 with 14 home runs and 26 stolen bases, suddenly there are plenty jumping onto his bandwagon.
As explained in a previous post (third paragraph), I am taking the ADP on Mock Draft Central with a grain of salt, but in looking at the NFBC ADP, a league that requires five starting outfielders in a 15-team league, Gomez appears to be coming off the board somewhere around the eighth round. Adjust for a 12-team league like our draft and you’re still looking at a 10th round selection. Initially, that tells me that he came to me at a slight bargain, but what it really comes down to whether or not you believe he is worth a pick at that round. Do you believe in Gomez’ second half from last year and do you think he is capable of building off of it?
His walk rate suffered and his swinging strike-rate increased despite an overall improvement in strikeout rate. But he also reduced his ground ball rate and brought his line drive rate back up to 16.7-percent, up nearly five percent from the previous season. His contact rate stayed relatively the same, but he did swing at significantly more pitches, which doesn’t appear to be a real positive Personally, I see his ground ball rate going back up, closer to his career mark of 1.12, and with the fact that he is still incapable of drawing a walk and strikes out nearly 22-percent of the time, his OBP will continue to suffer, thereby limiting the number of stolen base opportunities. Obviously, I am expecting some regression, but in all honesty, I don’t see the reduction in totals being all that significant in comparison to last year. I’d say that he’s neither a bust nor a bargain with my 12th-round selection. For me, I got him right where I should have. What say you…? Bargain or bust?
| Eric Hosmer, 1B KC | |
| RotoGraphs Mock Draft Position: | 152 |
| Mock Draft Central ADP: | 95.81 |
| NFBC ADP: | 91.39 |
To be honest, I was genuinely shocked that Hosmer lasted as long as he did and that I was able to grab him in the 13th round. His ADP on Mock Draft Central, as well as in the NFBC, shows me that many are expecting a rebound from the young Royals first baseman, and I feel exactly the same. In fact, I wrote a piece back in October discussing the fact that I was blaming his poor sophomore season on bad luck with respect to BABIP as well as some serious pressing at the plate and the inability to adjust to defensive shifts.
But I do see a rebound coming. He was actually more selective at the plate, limiting his overall swing percentage, and he was also more patient, as evidenced by his increase in walk rate. If he can maintain that plate discipline and just get a few extra bounces to go his way, then he should respond well at the plate and start getting back to being the hitter we know he is capable of being. To grab him in the 13th round, I’d say was a huge bargain as he seems to be coming off the board in the sixth round in NFBC play and the seventh if you adjust to 12-teams. I think he kicks in production worthy of a third or fourth round pick, thus providing an outstanding draft value. What say you…? Bargain or Bust?
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Side Note: While ADP rankings are a much better tool for snake drafts than they are auctions, they are not without their value when you’re setting up your strategy for the bidding process. You can expects players trending upwards to cost a little more than usual while downward trending players, if they interest you, could be nominated early and obtained for a bargain price. Players who haven’t moved up or down in the ADP rankings will probably cost much closer to their expected dollar values and with all of that information, it should be easier for you establish a quality budget distribution and game plan for your auction.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
Seriously…this year i am taking a handful of salt as it relates to MDC’s ADP. MI going too late (re: scarcity); Giancarlo super late due to the 57 outlier; Yu at 34 – he’s 7-10 round material for me…just a quick glance this morning.
I have a $20 Hosmer in Ottoneu, and while I’m keeping him, I’m a bit nervous about it, since there are a lot of 1B options out there.
Re: Hosmer, I think he should be valuable at that $20 price tag. I overpaid for him last year after owning him in the end of 2011 and was quite disappointed. He should rebound this year and prove to be undervalued in drafts.
I am not a believer in Gomez and a couple of months of decent hitting by him hasn’t convinved me after he has never hit anywhere or at anytime in his career before .Just the opposite with Hosmer ,who has an excellent track record as a hitter . I am willing to write off last year to sophomore slump ,the end of the Mayan era ,or whatever and expect a nice bounce back this year .
Mike Podhorzer wrote an article a while back looking at Gomez’ average HR and fly ball distances from 2010 – 2012, and each year the ball seems to be flying a little further off of his bat. Also, if we look into his splits over the span of 2012, we can see clearly that his power spiked in the second half, his BB rate dropped, but his K rate actually stayed fairly stable (prorate his K’s in the first half to his 252 AB’s in the second half and you get 62 K’s vs the 58 he had after the ASB).
I think your pick of Gomez was solid, especially with Hart slated to play 1B next year, giving Gomez a chance to play full time. If you gave Bill James’ projection 600 PA’s then his projection has him hitting 17-18 HR, which isn’t a bad projection in my mind, and if you do the same for his SB’s, James would have him at 43.
Yup, I do think his power is mostly for real. Possibly the sneakiest potential 20/40 player in fantasy in years?
Of the ten lowest BABIP guys from last year I think 7 of them are left handers who all hit into a shift: Smoak, Ike Davis, Dunn, Teixeira, Hosmer, and I think Granderson gets shifted also. Rasmus might…I don’t remember seeing him enough to know, so it could be 8. I take Teixeira as a case of a guy whose BABIP has not regressed to league average and has been bad for the last three years after being pretty normal prior. I would not be surprised if there’s some correlation with when teams started shifting on him.
I have no way of knowing if the shift is causing poor BABIP (there’s little to no research on the internet that I can find). I would love to see MLB (say Tampa’s) proprietary research on defensive shifting and its efficacy. What we do know is that teams are using it more and more and it is employed much more frequently and dramatically against left handed hitters.
Looking back over the last three years the evidence is kind of inconclusive just looking at BABIP, so it may be that this is nothing. I think what kind of spurred me is that I recall Royals radio guy Denny Matthews talking last year about Hosmer seeming frustrated by the number of hard hit outs he was recording to the right side. I just sort of wonder if we might see a continuation of that low BABIP and how that might affect his approach and his psyche. Like I said, I just don’t know, but it’s something I’m keeping my eye on with him and others.
actually now that I look at it Teixeira did have a lower BABIP left handed than right handed, but he also hit more flyballs and fewer HR/FB left handed which could explain the difference or at least some of it.
It seems to me that you’re still looking at Hosmer’s projections as an up and coming prospect rather than his MLB production. Its called Justin Smoak disease. Tragically it afflicts hundreds of baseball fans per year (though not with Smoak anymore).
Actually, unlike Smoak, Hosmer at least produced at a high level in the minors and showed a couple of brief flashes in the majors. Personally though, I think his swing is too long for him ever to succeed.
Eric Hosmer did have a promising 2011 but I was thoroughly burned by him in 2012 as were many other roto owners. The minor league #s should be taken with a grain or two of salt (the KC parks/leagues are friendly), but I’d say there’s a reasonable chance that Hosmer is still a good major leaguer although people probably should reign in their preconceived expectaions as you alluded to.
His performance was still well below average for an MLB first baseman in 2011 though. It was promising considering his age but it was hardly a breakout as I’ve seen it described. He had a couple flashes surrounded by extended periods of horrible performances which looked like his 2012 season. I know they’re working on shortening his swing but I’m skeptical (obviously).
If he can’t beat the shift, that explains the BABIP doesn’t it? It’s not just luck, he’s shown an inability to adjust.
Howard – I have a question that I noticed from your picks. Why did you feel Holland was a safer pick 3 rounds prior to Jim Johnson? Or did Johnson seem to fall in your lap in round 14? Holland’s potential for K’s out of a closer are absolutely valuable and his projections that I have call for an ERA approximately 0.30 less but Johnson projects out as having almost 10 more saves. I’m not bashing or calling you out on either pick, just curious.
Hey Matty D —
I love Holland more for his strikeouts and ratios, obviously, but I also think he’s got a great chance at racking up more saves. Bill James projects him at a dozen fewer saves than Johnson, but that was before the revamped rotation. I think, especially in the AL Central, that the Royals will be very competitive and will see a ton of close games all year. I feel that Holland has the chance to surpass Johnson’s contributions across the board in 2013.
Awesome, I assumed many of those things so that was why I asked. So can I assume based on this that Johnson fell into your lap and just about wrapped up your closers outside of a late round guy?
Thanks for the response, I enjoy your writing and insight.
Thanks Matty. Yeah, pretty much fell into my lap there. I always like to lock down two closers who I think have fairly strong job security and then supplement them with waiver adds to help with the saves and the ratios during the year. If another decent closer falls to me late in the draft, I’ll definitely consider grabbing him over a less-than-spectacular starter.
hosmer or rizzo as a keeper?
The Rizz, fo shizz
I don’t know, neither? It’s a pretty deep position almost always. I guess I would go with Anthony Rizzo due to his marked advantage in present power which should be something of a given for a 1b/CI usually, but I prefer Paul Goldschmidt to both if for some reason he is in the redraft pool.
yea thats kind of what i was thinking too. hosmer guarantees nothing this year, and based on a propensity for hacking and a lack of contact, rizzo has decent bust potential as well