Help Me Help You: Two Start Methodology
As many RotoGraphs readers are keenly aware, I commandeered the “Two Start Starters” pieces for pretty much the entire season in 2012. Today, I’m going to give a bit of my methodology out, and at the end ask if there’s any way I can better serve you, the readers.
Around 9am Friday — a mere four-and-a-quarter hours before deadline — I’ll get started by pulling up the ESPN list of ‘probables’ for the next week (note: if you know of a more reliable place, I’m really all ears). The only guys who can start twice in a week, technically speaking, are those who start on Monday and Tuesday. From there, I grab the list, and omit those I am positive have ownership over 50% (and if you feel that mark is too high-low, please say so in the comments).
Then, I cull those who aren’t immediately obvious regarding over the 50% threshold in Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. After that, I check team schedules. Players who start on Mondays are afforded one off day in the week if they’re going to make both starts, whereas Tuesday’s starters need to not have any time off.
Once I’m down to a list of guys I’m who will start twice and are under 50% ownership, I dig into the stats. I don’t have a real strong formula for exactly what I do, as I’m a big ‘gut-feel’ guy when it comes to fantasy. Sure, I use a lot of stats, but in a lot of cases we are talking about two of a guys potential 30ish starts. Anything can happen.
So I look for teams who haven’t hit well all season. I’ll dig deeper to find teams who haven’t hit well in the past week or two. Maybe a key superstar went down recently, leaving a team shorthanded. Finally, maybe the guy pitching is a hot-shot rookie and he’s getting his first two starts in. A lot of things come into play.
I’ll say this: First and foremost, I’m a strikeout guy. I flat out love them, not only because strikeouts typically play into fantasy, but they’ll often help you find someone on the cusp of a breakout (SwStr% helps too). But I’ll also look into how a guy has pitched that season, or of late. I’m also a big fan of groundball rates, as I find guys like Jake Westbrook to be particularly useful patches if things get dicey late in the season, like they did on my Ottoneu Staff II league team.
But eventually, I’ll narrow the list down to maybe three or four guys, and break them down for you. If there are a few guys that are virtually unowned, I might break them down in a secondary piece for really deep sleepers, or guys who are better candidates in leagues largely occupied by vultures.
This season, I’m thinking of incorporating a ticker. I’m not entirely sure what just yet; maybe just W-L, ERA, and strikeouts or something. But if that’s something that readers would like, feel free to help me develop the idea more.
Finally, I’d like to know what else you all would like to see. Feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments section, and I’ll address them to the best of my limited ability.
Above all, and I can’t say this enough, thank you for reading!
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
If I remember right you list just a few and then only the ones that you favor for the week. Why not continue with an analysis of the few and just list all the double starters from the rookie called up to the ace – letting those of us that like to stack double starters in our line-up to see them all in one place.
possibly worth considering. i’d have to get a better degree of certainty from my probables, but let me look into that
I like this idea as well. Keep the current format of highlighting guys who may be available for pick up on the waiver wire, but then just include a list at the end of all pitchers who are scheduled to make two starts.
Of course this will lead to plenty of people saying “why do you talk about Scott Feldman when Clayton Kershaw has two starts this week?”
Yeah, I’d like to see as many as possible listed. The analysis on a few is nice, but I want to know what all my options are!
If it isn’t too much trouble, what about something quick on the ballparks (does it favor the pitcher’s handedness/flyball tendencies)? Thanks!
this is only tangentially related, but is there any info out there about how useful the idea of pitching hot streaks (or, as you put it, a guy pitching well of late) is for predicting later starts? I’m certainly inclined to think that there’s at least some value in using recent performance as an indicator, but I also have been guilty of getting sucked in to a hot streak and benching a historically better pitcher to my future chagrin. I’d be curious to see if there is a demonstrated correlation, or even just hear your thoughts on how much weight you put on recent performance when predicting future starts.
I forget what the exact correlation is, but I know that recent poor performance is more predictive than recent good performance. But that’s probably because poor performance could be caused by injury, whereas there is no opposite-of-an-injury that makes people better for a short time, so take that with a grain of salt, I guess.
i’m not sure if you do this, but maybe include the wOBA of the opponents against the pitcher’s handedness (just starting pitchers, if possible).
while ERA is what really matters to fantasy, you might also track FIP or xFIP to see if your picks are getting lucky/unlucky.
Yes, I like this idea…and perhaps even more precise data (when available) the pitcher’s historical performance against the hitters on the team he will be facing. This is something I usually something I look at as a tie-breaker when I’m just not sure.
Last season you did a pitcher for today, pitcher for tomorrow, and a hitter for today. Would you be kind enough to do a HITTER FOR TOMORROW? I often stream my final bench spot for any hitter that may have an off day, but my league requires I add any players the day before I intend to start them.
In each week’s update you should post the performance results of your picks from the previous week.
Oh god, not W-L and ERA on Fangraphs! I would say something like FIP, K%, IP per start…
I don’t think it’s silly to include era/whip and w/L on rotographs
Hey j rog, have we met??
There is so much info out there now that league’s come down to luck and who stays healthy. Can’t anyone figure anything out for themselves anymore.
Sounds like someone who makes excuses for losing
Yeah, that isn’t far from the usual truth. I would like it if there was a way for standard computer draft rooms to operate without the typical default rankings, etc. Talk about advancing general groupthink..
I agree 100% with those who suggested a list of all two-start pitchers,along with your recommendations/streamers .I play in multiple leagues where I roster 8-9 starters and have to start 5 each week .Having all of the match-ups and two-starter info in one spot would be a huge time saver .
One thing to keep in mind, at least when I’m looking at two start guys – or any pitcher on the FA market for that matter, is how the manager manages the staff. Do SP’s from that team routinely get pulled after just six innings, or does this specific SP usually not stick around long enough to get the W.
Strikeouts are nice and all but I find that W’s are even harder to come by and can be the difference maker depending on how the league is set up.
In addition to that, I look at walk rates. Typically, not always but typically, a pitcher who doesn’t issue a lot of free passes won’t be at much risk for giving up a large amount of runs in an inning or so of work and therefore won’t destroy your week with one start.
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I also like to look up the Vegas odds for each potential 2 start pitcher. Most (not quite always) times when you see a team posted at -200 or better, the chances of that pitcher getting a win (or atleast a QS) is pretty high.