Outlier Offenses in Mid-Term Windows, The Finale

This is the fourth and final installment of the Outliers series. In mid-April, I introduced the process of reviewing matchups and schedules in three-week windows to identify team offense outliers. The basic premise is that rest-of-season (ROS) analysis has high margins of error and that it is better to compartmentalize fantasy decision-making into shorter timeframes. At that time, the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets were highlighted as positive offensive outliers. Over the next 3.5 weeks, the White Sox scored the fourth-most runs and ranked top three in ISO and wRC+, while the Mets were a huge letdown. In mid-May, the featured offenses, based on matchups, were the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants. The Rangers’ schedule helped them to score the 12th most runs over those weeks. The Giants, who were the worst offense in the Majors at that time, took advantage of their incredible schedule and turned into the best offense in baseball over the next month: third in runs and first in ISO, SLG, and wRC+. In mid-June, I recommended targeting hitters from the Athletics and Colorado Rockies due to their advantageous “on-paper” schedule. From June 11 through July 5, the Rockies were the most productive offense in baseball, averaging a league-best 6.43 runs per game, with the highest ISO (.233), and the only offense with a .500+ slugging percentage. The Athletics were seventh in total runs (118) at a rate of 5.36 per game, despite being without Brent Rooker.

This final review of a 3.5-week window will take us through Sunday, September 20. Technically, we could extend this through the final week of the season, but it’s better not to, as teams will be shutting down players and playoff teams will be resting some of their players. First, let’s review how pitching staffs have performed over the last six weeks and highlight the potentially fruitful matchups which should lead us to our offensive outliers.

Pitching Staffs to Avoid for Streaming Hitters and Borderline Roster Decisions

The New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers pitching staffs have been ones to avoid whenever possible, all season. Through Tuesday’s contests, the Yankees rotation has the lowest ERA (3.35) in baseball and their bullpen’s (2.97) is second only to the Boston Red Sox’s bullpen (2.90). The Brewers staff ranks second in ERA (3.42), first in FIP (3.56), and first in strikeout rate (26.3%), and are in the top six in most metrics, including most peripherals.

Rounding out the top five is tough, but the Los Angeles Dodgers are certainly up there, especially with the addition of Tarik Skubal and recent activations of Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. The Tampa Bay Rays is another group of pitchers to avoid streaming hitters against when possible. This season, “home vs. road” hasn’t mattered much as their results and underlying metrics are similar in both settings. The rotation has been a top-five unit while their bullpen has underwhelmed, outside of closer Bryan Baker. The Red Sox and their lefty-heavy rotation has been strong as well, despite being without Garrett Crochet.

The San Diego Padres usually boast a topline rotation, but when a team replace dominant starters like Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta with Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler and Griffin Canning, the only place to go is down. That said, Buehler has been solid since the All-Star break (2.89 ERA, 3.89 FIP), Randy Vásquez has held it down despite a miniscule strikeout rate (10.9% since the break), their ace Michael King has rebounded, and they expect Pivetta and Joe Musgrove to return soon. As is usually the case, the Padres are a tougher customer in Petco Park (3.57 ERA, 4.07 FIP vs. 4.55 ERA, 4.26 away).

Bolstered by Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo and the addition of Foster Griffin, the Guardians have been stellar, both at home and on the road. The Philadelphia Phillies starters have long been considered a no-go zone for borderline start/sit decisions on hitters. Aaron Nola has been much sharper of late, but whatever kryptonite he was holding was apparently passed onto Zack Wheeler, who has been a disaster since the All-Star break (7.18 ERA, 2.59 HR/9 in seven starts).

Interestingly, the Phillies bullpen ERA (4.29) ranks in the bottom third despite a league-best SIERA (3.45). Nevertheless, opposing bullpens are rarely part of our hitter start/sit equation, and we’ll usually bench a fringe hitter when we see Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo starting the three games of a series.

Other pitching staffs we’ve often avoided forcing hitters into our lineups against: the Atlanta Braves, the Skubal-less Detroit Tigers, and the Chicago Cubs, especially with the deadline additions of Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes.

The Seattle Mariners staff have suffered since the break, posting the third-worst ERA (5.48), despite a massive differential from their SIERA (3.91). They remain a staff to avoid in their home park, where their ERA is more than a full run lower (3.56 vs. 4.68 away) and they strike out four percent more batters (25% vs. 21%). The Los Angeles Angels are no longer a lock to target hitters against. Since firing pitching coach Mike Maddux and his staff on August 11, the Angels have the league’s lowest ERA (2.02), lowest WHIP (0.97), second-lowest FIP (3.23) and third-highest K-BB% (18.9%). Reid Detmers and Ben Joyce have helped anchor, but the rookies (Ryan Johnson, Walbert Ureña, George Klassen) have been doing their part.

Pitching Staffs to Target for Hitters

I got carried away in the last section, but we can get right to the point here. There won’t be many surprises here.

Sacramento Athletics — Especially when they’re at Sutter Health Park, where their 6.54 ERA is more than half a run higher than the next worst (Colorado Rockies home ERA: 5.91).

Colorado Rockies — League-worst 5.59 ERA, 4.74 xFIP, and 4.59 SIERA.

Cincinnati Reds — No Hunter Greene; bottom three in ERA peripherals, bottom three in walk rate (10.6%).

Houston Astros — A massive fall from grace; musical chairs rotation with 11 different starters throughout the season; Hunter Brown has a 13.7% walk rate; team’s active SP/RP roster’s 10.4% BB is the league’s worst.

Washington Nationals — Outside of Cade Cavalli, they are a trainwreck. Breaking: Matt Waldron has entered the chat.

Minnesota Twins — Active roster’s road ERA (5.25) and WHIP (1.48) are both second-highest in the Majors; walk rate over 10 percent; Joe Ryan is still 2-3 weeks away from being activated.

The Blue Jays aren’t quite there, but getting close since trading Kevin Gausman, losing Trey Yesavage, and now, Shane Bieber.

The St. Louis Cardinals are falling apart as well. They’ve traded Dustin May, lost league-average hurlers Hunter Dobbins and Andre Pallante, are reducing breakout Kyle Leahy’s innings, and Matthew Liberatore continues to get bludgeoned.

Outlier Offenses: Next 3.5 Weeks

Here are the four teams whose offenses should have advantage over the field based on their upcoming matchups:

Table above is color-coded simply and based on my personal formulations and assumptions of matchup strength for hitters: green (great), yellow (neutral), red (tough).

Seattle Mariners

It’s nice that Cal Raleigh is heating up (four homers in consecutive at-bats), but it’s likely too late, as managers with a second-round Raleigh would had to have been near-perfect in the rest of their draft and in FAAB to be in the mix for their league’s championship. Most of their key hitters are rostered in all formats. There may be a recently-dropped Dominic Canzone available in your 12-teamer. Cole Young (78% rostered in NFBC OCs, 72% on Fantrax) and Taylor Ward (68% OCs, 81% Fantrax) are streaming options after the Red Sox series. The Mariners may face up to four left-handed starters (at BOS, v ATH) in Week 24 (8/31 – 9/6), which might make Victor Robles a sneaky deep-league acquisition for managers hoping to boost their SB category.

Los Angeles Dodgers

We mostly start our Dodgers regardless of matchups, no questions asked. After a bit of cold spell, the Dodgers can easily finish the season on a heater, especially with these matchups on tap. Search for any recently dropped shares of Teoscar Hernández, Kyle Tucker or Tommy Edman in shallower leagues. Catcher Will Smith is on a rehab assignment and may return by the second series next week, against the Nationals. Alek Thomas is in play as a streamer in 15-teamers and above, in the absence of Andy Pages.

San Diego Padres

Other than The Big Three (Tatis, Machado, Merrill), we may find wayward Padres hitters hiding in the bountiful waiver wires or fields of FAAB. Let’s see if their Week 25 and 26 matchups (WAS, SF, at COL, MIA) helps Gavin Sheets to learn how to hit dingers again or help Xander Bogaerts turn the clock back to his 2019, 26-year-old self. Ty France should be scooped up by managers in need of HR/RBI help. Jake Cronenworth could be helpful in runs and batting average if he continues to bat second against RHPs.

Baltimore Orioles

There’s a lot of O’s goodness available on the market. More of them were pilfered this past weekend ahead in preparation for the Holy Grail of Hitters road trip – Sacramento and Colorado. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been on a bit of a HR/RBI bender; he’s available in 71% of Fantrax leagues and 65% of OCs. Since the Orioles are slated to face many southpaw starters over the next two weeks, lefty-masher with cheese Coby Mayo is a certified target. Mayo has a 205 wRC+ against lefties and a 42 wRC+ against righties. Those looking to get jiggy with it may have noticed that Blaze Alexander is on a rehab assignment and is soon on his way to wearing that silly bird helmet every day.

One final side quest was to determine if there were any sneaky, standout target for the roto stolen base category, based on upcoming matchups. One offense stands out for the next 3.5 weeks: the Padres. In their next 22 games over that stretch through September 20, the Padres will play 22 games against five of the seven teams that allow the most stolen bases:

• Reds x 6 (0.95 SBA/G, 29th)
• Rays x 3 (0.83, t-27th)
• Marlins x 3 (0.82, 26th)
• Rockies x 4 (0.80, t-24th)
• Giants x 3 (0.80, t-24th)

Bogaerts has three stolen bases this month, facing mostly stingy catchers. Six of his 17 swipes this season have come against the teams listed above his team will soon play against. Perhaps Luis Rengifo and Jake Cronenworth can join the steal party.

Hope you have found this intermittent series helpful. Based on some of your feedback, I’ll produce this analysis and content more frequently next season.