Outlier Offenses: This Month’s Giants

by Vlad Sedler

June 10, 2026

In mid-April, I introduced my process of reviewing matchups and schedules in two- to three-week windows to identify outliers and potential short-term gains. The basic premise is that rest-of-season (ROS) analysis has high margins of error and that it is better to compartmentalize fantasy decision-making into short-term timeframes. We do not know who will get hurt and whether a specific team would be a good or bad matchup one month or two months from now. In that April article, the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets stood out as positive outliers. The White Sox crushed over the 3.5-week window, ranking fourth in runs and top three in isolated power and wRC+. The Mets were a huge letdown, though they were without offensive leader Juan Soto and other key hitters for parts of that stretch. Soon thereafter, Francisco Lindor joined the injury party.

In mid-May, I ran it back with two offenses whose matchups and schedules stood out over the next 2.5 weeks, through the end of May: the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers. The Rangers were slightly above average over that stretch, ranking 12th in runs scored with 75 in 16 games (4.7 per game) and the ninth-highest ISO (.177). The Rangers were without their two best hitters, Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford, and Brandon Nimmo struggled (.194/.275/.387) over that period. The three who stepped up were Ezequiel Duran (.295, 16 RBI), Jake Burger (.304, 14 R), and Joc Pederson (.289, 5 HR). Josh Jung batted .291 with seven walks and eight strikeouts in his 14 games. The big hit here was, of course, the Giants. Through 44 games before May 15, they were an excruciatingly horrendous offense, the worst in baseball: last in runs (147), OBP (.288), and wRC+ (83). In their featured 2.5-week period from May 15 through the end of the month (16 games), they ranked sixth in runs (87), first in ISO (.222) and first in slugging percentage (.503). Over the last four weeks, they’ve been the hottest offense in baseball: third in runs, and first in ISO, SLG and wRC+. They have been fueled by Casey Schmitt, Willy Adames, and Jung Hoo Lee, all of whom rank among the top 23 hitters on our Fantasy Player Rater over the last 30 days. Matt Chapman has turned things around, batting .302 with 20 RBI over his last 24 games. Their strength of schedule over this stretch was a fruitful one, but nobody could have predicted this explosion, which included five games of 10 or more runs, including 19 runs at Coors Field, 12 against the Brewers, and an 18-3 victory at Wrigley Field last Friday. They won only nine of those 24 games, but that is inconsequential for our fantasy baseball purposes.

Pitching Staff Check-In

Let’s take a look at how team rotations and bullpens have been doing over the past 5.5 weeks, since May 1.

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Team Pitching since May 1

#	Team	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	BABIP	K-BB%
1	LAD	3.15	3.35	1.02	.249	18.7%
2	MIL	3.22	3.42	1.17	.281	18.3%
3	PHI	3.30	3.22	1.12	.290	19.7%
4	SEA	3.31	3.53	1.12	.270	17.3%
5	ATL	3.31	3.73	1.18	.267	15.6%
6	STL	3.34	3.83	1.27	.297	14.1%
7	NYY	3.38	3.86	1.20	.269	13.9%
8	BOS	3.46	3.67	1.26	.300	15.8%
9	NYM	3.48	3.91	1.26	.280	13.7%
10	SDP	3.61	4.01	1.25	.274	12.9%
11	ARI	3.62	4.30	1.19	.265	11.3%
12	TBR	3.73	3.98	1.22	.283	13.2%
13	CLE	3.76	3.77	1.29	.299	15.5%
14	TOR	3.78	3.74	1.23	.290	14.9%
15	TEX	3.88	4.05	1.22	.265	12.9%
16	HOU	3.90	4.44	1.28	.255	9.7%
17	DET	4.05	3.96	1.24	.278	13.3%
18	WSN	4.10	4.17	1.31	.279	11.3%
19	CHW	4.22	3.97	1.23	.271	13.4%
20	KCR	4.23	4.09	1.32	.288	12.3%
21	PIT	4.41	3.87	1.31	.297	14.4%
22	MIA	4.54	3.89	1.26	.284	14.0%
23	CHC	4.65	4.01	1.29	.274	12.7%
24	LAA	4.84	4.37	1.46	.288	10.3%
25	SFG	4.91	4.48	1.47	.303	9.0%
26	BAL	4.95	4.53	1.41	.295	8.9%
27	MIN	5.03	4.26	1.41	.293	11.3%
28	ATH	5.09	4.05	1.41	.306	12.8%
29	CIN	5.47	4.73	1.52	.276	7.6%
30	COL	6.82	4.69	1.65	.338	7.7%

Default ranking by ERA; table is sortable; includes starters and relievers

The Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Mariners, Braves and Yankees remain the cream of the crop. The Rangers are up there, but believe it or not, it’s their rotation that has been weighing down their overall ratios. Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Leiter have earned run averages over 4.00, but with SIERAs and xFIPs at least 0.6 lower than their respective ERAs. The Cardinals staff ranks among the bottom six in strikeout rate (20.1%), though they’ve been steady and a pleasant surprise. Not surprisingly, the rotations of the Red Sox and Astros have been the most improved from the first five weeks to the last 5.5 weeks. The Red Sox’ team ERA is nearly a run lower since May 1 than the period before it, and they’ve been getting it done without Garrett Crochet, led by Payton Tolle (2.70, 18.6% K-BB%), Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Connelly Early. The Astros have been anchored by Spencer Arrighetti, Peter Lambert, and some strong outings from Kai-Wei Teng, and more recently, Tatsuya Imai. Their pitching ranked nearly dead last at the end of April.

When looking for outlier matchups for hitters, we often first look to see who is facing the woeful Rockies. Their pitching isn’t just bad, it’s bad by wide margin, allowing nearly six runs per game, and three of their starting pitchers have an ERA of 7.00 or greater. The Nationals’ rotation has been better over the last month, due to improved performances by Cade Cavalli and Zack Littell, but their bullpen is arguably the worst in the majors, dead last in WAR (-1.4). The Reds’ bullpen is about as bad (their 5.08 ERA ranks last), but their starters haven’t been much help outside of Chase Burns. Perhaps with Rhett Lowder back and Hunter Greene hopefully getting activated before the end of the month, they’ll slowly regress to league average. The A’s have bolstered their staff with rookie Gage Jump and by moving Jack Perkins into a starter role, though their home park won’t be forgiving in the NorCal summer heat. The Twins, outside of Joe Ryan, have been a target for opposing hitters, and the Angels remain a strong target despite Reid Detmers‘ strikeouts, Walbert Ureña‘s breakout and Grayson Rodriguez’s return. The Cubs have been shockingly bad outside of Ben Brown, and the return of Matthew Boyd isn’t likely to save this staff, though he should help.

Team Offense Outliers, next 3.5 weeks

Here are the three offenses whose matchups and schedules stand out as extremely positive for the next 3.5 weeks of games running from Friday, June 12 through Sunday July 5:

Athletics

Week 12: 3 vs Rockies
Week 13: 3 vs Pirates, 4 at Angels
Week 14: 3 at Giants, 3 at Angels
Week 15: 3 vs Dodgers, 3 vs Miami

If you play in daily transaction formats, please stop what you’re doing and add all the A’s hitters you can for this bonanza weekend series in Vegas. The quartet of Kurtz, Langeliers, Rooker and Soderstrom are 100% rostered in just about every format, though Rooker and Soderstrom are available in 8% of Yahoo leagues as of Wednesday afternoon. Jacob Wilson (62% Yahoo) is on a rehab assignment and may be activated any day now. Zack Gelof (21%) has been red-hot and is on a 14-game hitting streak. Henry Bolte is available in 93% of Yahoo leagues. Max Muncy may still be available in some deeper formats (15+ teamers). Expect some of the highest projected run totals of the season for those COL/ATH games this weekend. The Athletics will then head back to Sacramento for three games against the Pirates where they should avoid Paul Skenes. Then it’s seven games in 10 days against the Angels and back to Sacramento for six against some stout Dodgers pitchers and some mediocre Marlins arms.

Colorado Rockies

Week 12: 3 at Athletics (in Vegas)
Week 13: 3 at Cubs, 3 vs Pirates
Week 14: 3 vs Red Sox, 3 at Twins
Week 15: 4 vs Marlins, 3 vs Giants

This is the actual Holy Grail of matchups for the next 3.5 weeks, though most of the fantasy-fruitful hitters are rostered in serious leagues. After this highly-projected weekend in Vegas, the Rockies will play 13 of their next 19 at home. In the NFBC Online Championship, check to see if any of the following are available to be bid on this Sunday (% available in OCs listed, below):

Troy Johnston, 1B/OF — 9%
TJ Rumfield, 1B — 10%
Ezequiel Tovar, SS — 15%
Willi Castro, 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF — 16%
Kyle Karros, 3B — 100% (slashing .355/.459/.581 over the last 14 days)

Mickey Moniak is on the IL, but has resumed baseball activities. Be sure to monitor his progress and get him off your IL once he’s activated. Tyler Freeman was just placed on the 7-day IL, and would be eligible for activation next Tuesday. Recently promoted, speedy center fielder, Cole Carrigg, will be a target in 15-team leagues for Sunday night FAAB. The 10-day weather forecasts in Denver project temperatures in the high-80s and low-90s next week.

Next Week’s best matchups:

Pittsburgh Pirates: 3 at Athletics, 3 at Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3 vs Angels, 3 vs Twins
Los Angeles Angels: 3 at Diamondbacks, 4 at Athletics

Targets for batting average: Nick Gonzales, Spencer Horwitz, Gabriel Moreno

Targets for power: Ryan O’Hearn

Targets for speed: Jake Mangum, Ryan Waldschmidt

Ride While Hot: Wade Meckler

The Pirates hitter matchups stand out next week, ahead of the D-Backs and Angels. O’Hearn is a strong target in Yahoo leagues where he’s only 60% rostered. Targeting free agents on the Angels is more of a dice roll. Oswald Peraza has been cold, but with the recent injuries to teammates, he is earning everyday at-bats. We’ve been waiting all season for Logan O’Hoppe to heat up and there are no signs that he will anytime soon. We roll the dice only in deeper formats where alternatives are slim.

Way Too Early Look Ahead to Week 15: Miami Marlins with 4 at Rockies, 3 at Athletics

The big takeaway from this column, beyond reiterating my 3-to-4-week window process, is to urge you to load up on hitters from the Rockies and Athletics, with a sprinkle of Pirates and Diamondbacks, and a backup plan of Angels dart throws.