Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 26th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all thanks for coming out!

JoeG414: 12T deep daily roto.  Need to drop one : Vladdy or Royce Lewis ? TY

Paul Sporer: *gulp* Can’t believe this is a legit question… but it is and I’m goin with Vlad Jr. as the cut. Royce at least has 13 HR/SB on the year

Gregg: If you had to make a call today, what would you guess the order of these SPs to be on ADP in 2027: Tolle, Harrison, Cavalli, Ashcraft, Henderson

Paul Sporer: I think your listed order is very close. I’d probably put Henderson above Ashcraft!

hayz11: Looking forward to 2027, what level of confidence would you have in Jackson Merrill? He’s on pace to set career highs in most counting stats all while having by far his worst offensive season.

Paul Sporer: If the price isn’t out of pocket, I expect to be in on him despite the super underwhelming rate stats this year. I can only complain so much with 21 HR/24 SB in terms of how much he hurt my Main Event team, but considering how much he was supposed to be a part of my AVG and has only hit .236, I’ve come away pretty annoyed.

AVG has just been a nightmare for that team, though, so I can’t lay it all at his feet (Merrill’s teammate Manny Machado and Trea Turner are also on that team for me, so easy to understand why my AVG suuuucks!) At any rate, I think he’s more a .275-.280 true talent so I don’t think it’s impossible to get that w/this year’s counting categories en route to a big rebound season.

michaelstoll5: How do you balance flags fly forever vs next year? Example, how willing are you to push in a keepable trade chip for rentals to make the playoff push?

Paul Sporer: I’m pretty open to pushing. Obv depends on the situation and how much I think a trade will help the cause, but I don’t get toooo hung up on thinking about the future when a real shot to win is in front of me

Vogt your conscience: Is Senga worth holding onto in a Svs + HLDs league (separate categories)? Would be dropping for someone like Okert, Lavender, Bradgley.

Paul Sporer: I’d hold him. Let’s see how the next outing or two goes. Gave up runs in 2 of L3 but had 3 SVs in a row before that and certainly looks like their guy. Mets also playin well in August at 13-8!

Yakety Sox: Can you talk me off a ledge as someone who bet their final push to win this season on trading for Wheeler?

Paul Sporer: My main concern is health and if that’s driving the command and control issues, there could be some trouble, of course. 5, 1, 4, 5 BB in his L4 along with 6 HRs, incl. 4 in his most recent suggest something is amiss. I wish I could say I’m totally confident it’s just a blip, but I don’t think we can say that right now. That said, I’d still have a hard time taking him out if we don’t get any reports of injury concern or any sort of pushed back start.

David Wiers: Commented already in your excellent SP Chart, but SFG moved up Webb and pushed Roupp to tomorrow.

Paul Sporer: Tyvm!!

MD: New MLB rule proposal: All clubs must report by noon on monday all tentative timelines for IL players

Hunter Goodman back after my lineup replacement already locked in weekly lineups. Tired of this BS!

Paul Sporer: I’m starting to get the feeling these managers don’t even care about our fantasy teams!!

dirtypuer: I held onto Cal after asking about it last week, is this more trusting the process or a broken clock being right twice a day?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it was crazy to keep him. I think I reco’d to move on as you’d given him long enough and now 5 HRs later, you’re feeling GREAT about it. Cory Schwartz & Mike Siano of the Fantasy411 on MLB.com ages ago used to have a rubric of holding guys relative to their draft pick based on the week in the season as they loosely mirrored with 23 players and ~26 weeks. The idea was that players 23-26 are cuttable from week 1 and then you work from there meaning a 1st-2nd rounder would be held pretty much into September.

Obviously a player’s actual performance would decide how you move w/in that rubric and to me, Cal had been playing bad enough (and I suspect at far less than 100%) to move on. Now, a week later with 5 HRs, perhaps the “playing through injury” concerns I had are alleviated a bit to just ride it out the rest of the way.

Paul Sporer: While I’m usually someone heavily advocating for managers to stick w/their studs for a good bit, Cal was an interesting case where he only has the one year of being a TRUE STUD. He’s more of a 7th-10th rounder outside of last year which is another reason I was loosening some of my normal restrictions in cutting a 2nd rounder. Bottom line is, I’m glad you kept him bc I’d have felt crappy advocating a cut right before he rips 5 HRs, lol. Sure, I think the process was fine, but it still would’ve felt terrible

NicklePickers: Is Heliot Ramos going to be stuck in a SS platoon with Belli back? Cut for McAdoo in AL Only OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think so. Despite being a fan of Ramos and even thinking he was a solid acquisition for NYY just in terms of accumulating talent, it felt like he was always going to be pinched once Belly returned, unless Spencer Jones had fallen on his face to open PAs that way.

morganconrad: First, thanks for these chats.  I learn a lot from your answers, and also from many of the questions.

Please rank these SP for ROS redraft H2H points: Glasnow, May, Mahle, Chandler, Sasaki.

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out! Always enjoy chatting w/y’all!! I’d try to lineup the next 3-4 potential matchups for everyone to see if that greatly alters the outlook of any of ’em, but absent that analysis and focused on talent alone right now, I’d go Glasnow as the easy #1. When healthy, he’s a true ace, IMO. And then from there it’s the revitalized Mahle (what a pickup, I definitely didn’t have that as being a key trade at the deadline), Sasaki, May, Chandler all in a relatively close cluster.

Mahle might have a little edge over the other 3 if we believe his recent run is sustainable (2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP/18% K-BB since the break!) but otherwise, I’d likely leverage matchups and win potential to separate them. All are on solid teams, but obv Mahle/Sasaki/May have a clear edge over Chandler in the team support category.

remyec007: Walker Jenkins:  “Where am I right now?”

Paul Sporer: Can indirectly blame Astros ownership weirdly enough! Seems they had a Bryan Abreu for Trevor Larnach deal on the table that Houston ownership vetoed. Now that likely would’ve just cleared the path for Matt Wallner more, but it would’ve been one fewer power lefty to contend with on the roster. And while I do like Wallner and even speculated on him in a league in hopes of a Larnach move, he wouldn’t have been any sort of lock to block off Jenkins

Paul Sporer: Larnach trade or not, it’s a bit shocking that a contending team hasn’t found space for a 21-year old super prospect posting a 148 wRC+ at AAA!

NicklePickers: How many starts a week do I need from Mateo for him to be speed-viable in AL Only?

Paul Sporer: It’s less about starts and more about the SBs themselves as they can come in substitution roles. I remember the Rajai Davis/Jarrod Dyson days in daily leagues where I’d only use ’em when they were in the lineup and end up missing a ton of pinch run/defensive sub (that eventually leads to an AB) SBs. So as long as they bring him into a game or two a week in addition to his 2-3 starts, there should be enough SBs there to justify things, especiallyyyy in AL Only

duckboathopeful: Making my question more concise; I’m considering trading Kyle Harrison because of his rough road splits and the Brewers finishing with 9/12 on the road. Is Anthony+Bradish/Gausman for Harrison smart or overthinking?

Paul Sporer: He does have a stark split, but a lottt is built off that ugly Vegas start (10 base runners, 8 ER in 2.3 IP). Remove that and 4.66 ERA/1.45 WHIP goes to 3.27/1.30 which is still worse than his immaculate 1.26/.86 at home, but probably not enough to merit a road fear IMO. He was also cooked at SDP recently but those two meltdowns really drive the road struggles. That said, while I wouldn’t be moving Harrison JUST BECAUSE of the home/road split, I’m not necessarily against the trade that you have on the table here. There’s a chance to get a relatively comparable arm plus a high upside bat in Roman Anthony. I know he has all of 5 rehab games, but he’s looked good and a healthy Anthony can still be very good, so this is a trade I’d heavily consider on its merit alone, but not bc I fear Harrison on the road

David Wiers: Heriberto Hernandez is the new Adolis Garcia, right?

Paul Sporer: We might need a few more SBs to really pull the peak Adolis vibes, but I definitely think there’s something here with Hernandez. I still have some concerns w/his vR performance in terms of betting big on him next year, but he’s still had the power (10 HRs in 245 PA) despite the .698 OPS so he’s been a great find this year.

Yakety Sox: thanks for this! really appreciate the thoughts.

duckboathopeful: Thank you for the thoughtful answer!

jamield: Thx for chatting; 12 mixed H2H, weighted towrds IPs and Ks: Pfaadt or Clay Holmes ROS?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s close! I know Pfaadt’s been a little wobbly in his last 2, but even including those, he has a 2.15 ERA/.94 WHIP since returning from the minors! Fitting that they squared off earlier this week and BOTH have a 2-step next week. That is making this such a tough choice as I was very hot on Holmes coming off the IL after being traded and he has not disappointed, either. I think the Ks edge for Pfaadt is enough to push me his way, though. I think his last 2 are more of a blip as opposed to him pumpkin’ing from his hot run so I will give him grace and lean his way in this debate v. Holmes

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out, y’all! We are fullyyyyy in the dog days now and if you’re a football fan, I know the siren song is getting loud to shift some attention that way, but fight through it and take advantage of your leaguemates who succumb to football and take their foot off the gas a bit. Even as September comes, most league standings still have plenty of movement so keep grinding! Talk to y’all next week!