Mike Podhorzer’s 2022 Bold Predictions

It’s bold predictions time! Earlier this week, I shared my bold hitter league leaders and bold pitcher league leaders. While those picks and writeups should provide value, they are more for fun given the loooooong odds of getting even one of them right. On the other hand, I expect to hit on several of my bold predictions, aiming for at least two to three correct calls. Let’s dive right in.

All Three of These Pitchers Beat their Steamer Projected K% By >= 1%:

What do these three starting pitchers have in common? They have all been pumping their fastball at an average velocity well above their 2021 marks. You might remember that just last week, I implored you do buy these three.

Joe Ryan hasn’t gotten the prospect love his stats would suggest, likely because of underwhelming fastball velocity. Often times the skepticism is validated when the pitcher reaches the Majors and his strikeout rate plummets like his below average velocity warned. Now that Ryan is up more than a mile per hour on his fastball this Spring, there’s seemingly much more room for error and I think the concern about his velocity will shrink. Hey, if he could strike out 30% of batters with a 91 MPH fastball, imagine what he could do with a fastball at nearly 93 MPH!

It’s easy to forget that Jesús Luzardo has only recorded 166.1 MLB innings. His 2020 season was perfectly fine, but he was a disaster last year, as his strikeout rate declined, while his walk rate ballooned. Now he’s throwing two miles per hour faster, which should be a boon for him and complement his already awesome slider-changeup combination.

Keller’s velocity spike is the greatest among all pitchers expected to open the year in his team’s starting rotation. Maybe this is exactly what the doctor ordered to get back on track and make good on his former prospect promise.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 is a Top-20 Middle Infielder*

Since March 15, after the news of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s injury spread, Kim has been the 51st middle infielder selected in NFBC drafts! That’s crazy. His debut last year after playing in KBO was obviously disappointing. But he’s still just 26 and owns both power and speed. The good news is that he posted a single digit SwStk% and a FB% over 40%. That could result in a strong combination of contact and power output. For possibly two months, and perhaps longer, Kim should be left alone at shortstop to see what he could do. If he’s hitting when Tatis returns, the Padres will have a good dilemma on their hands. Can Kim play left field? Eric Hosmer may be traded by then too, opening up the DH slot with Luke Voit moving to first base.

Keston Hiura Hits 25 Home Runs

This would look like a “duh” prediction just last year, but a weak .250 wOBA has instead banished him to the Brewers bench to open the season. Stubbornly, I haven’t given up on him. He was the third largest xHR/FB rate underperformer last season, so his power really didn’t crater like his results suggest. The challenge here is playing time, of course, and his strikeouts. Starting with the latter first, his strikeouts weren’t this big of an issue while in the minors. It makes me cautiously optimistic that he’ll be able to fix what has caused his strikeout rate to skyrocket in the Majors.

Playing time is a tougher call, but the DH gives him one more path. There is quite a bit of injury risk and/or old age in that outfield and DH slot currently, and at the very least, Hiura will get his at-bats against left-handers. Given his power and FB%, he wouldn’t necessarily need a full season’s worth of at-bats to reach 25 homers anyway.

Josiah Gray Outearns Framber Valdez*

I’m a fan of Gray, but it seems like I might be the only one. Being the only one is a good thing, as it provides me an opportunity to buy him cheap. During his debut last season, he features two secondary pitches that generated a 20%+ SwStk%! That’s realllllly good. His four-seamer was perfectly fine too at an 8.3% SwStk%, but he probably would be better off ditching his changeup (2.6% SwStk%) if it doesn’t improve. His strikeout potential and significantly better walk rates in the minors make me bullish. For my complete forecast, check out my Pod Projection post.

On the other hand, I find that Valdez is consistently overvalued. His SwStk% is in line with a league average strikeout rate, while his control is below average, leading to a bloated walk rate. His saving grace is his massive ground ball rate. But that should result in a higher than league average BABIP, not a suppressed one, as grounders result in hits far more frequently than fly balls do. Because of the low fly ball rate, he rarely induces pop-ups, which are easy outs.

While Valdez may have the ERA edge because of his GB% reducing homers allowed, Gray seemingly has the edge in both WHIP and strikeouts, which I think will allow him to generate more fantasy value.

Mitch Garver is the Top Overall Catcher*

With less competition for catcher at-bats, plus a clear opening at DH against left-handers when he’s not catching, Garver should easily set a new personal career high in plate appearances. Heck, he might end up with the most PAs of any catcher in baseball. After breaking out in 2019, his HR/FB rate has fluctuated, but his xHR/FB rate has remained pretty consistently between 19% and last year’s mark of 24%. That’s 30 homers over a full season. But that’s not all. He also figures to hit clean-up behind some solid OBPs, so he could challenge for the RBI title among catchers as well.

Why he’s been the ninth catcher off the board in NFBC league since March 13, the day after being traded to the Rangers, and two ranks behind Tyler Stephenson, I have no idea. He’s a steal at that price, and Stephenson is oddly quite overvalued.

Seth Brown Hits 30 Home Runs

That Athletics roster is sad, which gives Brown a longer leash to produce. He posted a 23.6% HR/FB rate at Triple-A in 2019 and the power carried over to the Majors, as he posted a 20.6% mark last year. He also makes the most of his power by hitting tons of fly balls. So it should be fairly clear that if given 600+ PAs, he has the power and fly ball rate to hit 30 bombs.

Right now, Brown is expected to play left field while Ramón Laureano is suspended. What happens when Laureano returns? A lot could happen that could allow Brown to keep a starting job. For one, Cristian Pache could continue to stink offensively and return to Triple-A, allowing Laureano to replace him. Another option is for Brown to move to first base, which was the expectation initially. After Eric Thames 테임즈 was sent to the minors, the 37-year-old Stephen Vogt stands atop the team’s depth chart at the position. That’s crazy! Finally, Jed Lowrie appears to be the starting DH, but he’s 38 and might be projected to be the worst, or one of the worst, DHs in baseball.

If Brown hits, he’ll play all year, at least against right-handed starters. That should be enough to yield 30 homers.

Brandon Marsh Outearns Randy Arozarena*

It was a small sample, but Marsh was actually way on top of the xHR/FB rate underperformers list linked to in the Hiura blurb. That strong xHR/FB rate helps validate his small sample power breakout at Triple-A. With the newfound power to go with some speed and stolen base potential, he’s now a true power/speed threat we fantasy owners love. He’s always shown high BABIP skills, though clearly a .403 mark is too high to repeat. He also doesn’t swing and miss often, so the high strikeout rate is merely the side effect of his plate patience, rather than his inability to make contact. That’s a good thing because it’s easier to become more aggressive at the plate than to will yourself to make better contact.

Arozarena was the talk of the end of the 2020 season and playoffs. We were all eager to find out how he would perform over a full season, and while his power output may have disappointed some, he was still a strong fantasy performer. However, he was the second biggest xBABIP overperformer, and he also significantly outperformed his xwOBA. That .302 xwOBA, combined with his mediocre defense at best, means he might not even be worthy of a starting job. The trade of Austin Meadows might actually push him into the DH slot, which would require even more offensively. That could be a problem if he can’t prove to be one of the few outliers that can consistently outperform his xwOBA by a significant degree.

Brent Rooker is a Top-2 Twins Outfielder*

The sample was small, but Rooker was one of the biggest xBABIP underperformers last season, likely thanks to his high line drive rate, combined with a low IFFB%. A significantly higher BABIP would help offset the high strikeout rate. He already owns big power, so if he could hit just .250, his offensive value would skyrocket.

The Twins’ outfield is both exciting and risky. Byron Buxton is always hurt, but brings with him massive potential over a full season. Max Kepler’s offense dipped last year, but hasn’t been anything special for the majority of his career. He has also posted just a .276 wOBA against lefties, so at the very least, Rooker should start against them. Finally, Alex Kirilloff was a former top prospect, but is coming off a meh debut with a .307 wOBA. While I like him to improve, he’s no sure thing and could also give way to Rooker seeing more playing time.

Nick Lodolo Earns the Most Value Among All Reds Pitchers*

While it sounds super bold to predict a rookie starting pitcher earns the most fantasy value among all the team’s pitchers, it’s not so nutty. That starting rotation after Tyler Mahle is ugly and we have no idea who is going to save games with Lucas Sims on the IL. Even if Sims were healthy, he’s only posted a sub-4.00 ERA once, and that was over just 25.2 innings during the short 2020 season.

Lodolo was one of my last Pod Projections, as I wasn’t familiar with him and figured if he failed to win a rotation spot, he wasn’t going to earn any fantasy value this year. It now appears he will win the starting job, so I dove deeper into his profile. He hasn’t pitched very often in the minors, racking up just 6.2 innings at Triple-A and only 69 total minor league innings. But he’s posted exceptional strikeout rates, along with GB% marks above 50% since Single-A. Give me all the strikeout and ground ball pitchers there are! Avoiding fly balls is especially important in home run friendly GABP.

Will he pitch enough innings to earn the most value? He might not need a ton if every other pitcher is posting an ERA above 4.00! A 3.80 ERA over just 120 innings could easily be enough to earn him the most value.

*Using the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with default settings