2022 Bold Pitcher League Leaders

Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders. Today, let’s jump over to the pitching side, where I’ll do the same for the throwers. Once again, I’ll use my Pod Projections to guide me toward players I’m more bullish on than the other projection systems. Unlike for hitters, I’ll only be sharing bold leaders in four categories. There will be no bold wins league leader named, because wins are silly and unpredictable.

American League

ERAShane McClanahan

Bold to some, maybe not for others. For some reason, McClanahan wasn’t a top prospect, as he was ranked just ninth among Rays prospects and 127th overall in the last rankings he was part of. It’s hard not to be bullish here. Over a reasonable 123.1 innings MLB debut sample size, he recorded an impressive 14.8% SwStk%. Not only did his four-seamer max out at 100.9 MPH, he features three non-fastballs that all generated SwStk% marks above 17%! You know whose repertoire and skills this looks like? Jacob deGrom. DeGrom doesn’t throw his curveball much any more, but every one of his pitches generated SwStk% well into double digits. Several pitches with well above average SwStk% marks provide a massive cushion as you could switch to your other elite weapon on a night weapon #2 isn’t working well.

WHIPJoe Ryan

I’ve already highlighted Ryan as a Spring velocity surger, which if resulting in more strikeouts, will reduce baserunners. He already owns elite control, as he posted an elite 70.4% strike percentage. Finally, he’s a fly ball pitcher, and fly balls find more gloves than grounders. He owns the exact profile of a guy you would expect a low WHIP from. He avoids walks, strikes out a high rate of batters, and the balls in play he allows should get converted into outs at a higher rate than the league average.

SOPatrick Sandoval

This is a loooooongshot given the innings he would need to reach to have a shot at leading the league in strikeouts and the high unlikelihood of coming close to that minimum. But man, he certainly has the stuff to strike out a much higher rate of hitters than he has. He ranked 12th in baseball among 163 pitchers with at least 80 innings in SwStk%. He featured an absolutely elite changeup and a strong slider, but diluted his efforts by throwing a curveball that continues to allow contact. His fastballs are also nothing special, but those two secondaries are quite the combination.

SvDiego Castillo

The Mariners bullpen looks like the ultimate saves committee, but I think Castillo is the best pitcher, and the best pitcher most of the times ends up winning the job outright and running away with the role. It doesn’t always happen that way, but I’m not going to bet on an inferior pitcher! Castillo’s control is nothing to write home about, but he combines two skills I love to see — strikeouts and grounders. He has suffered from a high HR/FB rate throughout his short career, but it’s been just 205.1 innings, which is essentially one full season. He has also only allowed 164 fly balls, which is about a third of what’s required for the stat to stabilize. So in short, it’s far too early to believe he has trouble keeping his flies in the park, which makes him the best bet in that pen. Paul Sewald could very well prove to be better, but I need to see it again before I believe that insane out of nowhere performance last year was real.

National League

ERACarlos Carrasco

Remember when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball? Injuries have taken their toll, but it sounds like he’s fully healthy again. Don’t forget he was consistently posting high-20% strikeout rates and SwStk% marks in the mid-teens, along with excellent walk rates. We never know how much injury affects players, so if that was all that was behind his struggles, he could easily return to the low-3.00 ERA range.

WHIPElieser Hernandez

Good control, plus strikeout rate upside makes him a sleeper for strong WHIP value. Oh, and he’s also a fly ball pitcher, making him quite similar to Joe Ryan discussed above. That link takes you to my ERA comparison versus Steamer, making it clear that I’m far more bullish than the other systems. It means you could get him quite cheaply if you so desire.

SO – Jesus Luzardo

Luzardo was another Spring velocity surger, and is already equipped with an excellent slider-changeup combo. A faster fastball will likely lift all boats and make him look a lot more like the top prospect he was just several years ago. His control will need to rebound so he could log enough innings to compete for the strikeout crown, of course, but sometimes it all clicks at the same time. More swings and misses means more strikeouts, which means fewer opportunities to issue a walk.

SvGiovanny Gallegos

With Alex Reyes now on the IL and expected to remain there for a while, Gallegos has one less true competitor to fend off for Cardinals saves. He easily owns the best skills in that bullpen, having posted a SwStk% of at least 16% three seasons running now, with walk rates no higher than 7%. I’m not sure the Cardinals will settle on one guy, just like the Mariners, but I prefer to bet on the best pitcher and assume at some point he’ll secure the job.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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tommybonesnycmember
1 year ago

I’m betting on steckenrider taking the primary closer gig.