2021 Review — Hitter xBABIP Overperformers

Yesterday, I used my newest hitter xBABIP equation to discuss the batters whose actual BABIP marks most underperformed their xBABIP marks. Now let’s look at the overperformers, or those whose actual BABIP most exceeded their xBABIP marks.

Tyler Wade sits atop the Angels depth chart at shortstop and that might have a lot to do with that inflated .378 BABIP, driving an acceptable .304 wOBA. On the one hand, his stolen base potential and potential playing time might make him a sleeper in deep leagues. On the other hand, his 2021 results were a mirage and it shouldn’t take long for the Angels to realize it. I don’t expect Wade to remain the starting shortstop for long, if he even opens the season with the job. I would much rather speculate on Luis Rengifo.

From incredible 2020 fireworks to merely solid offensive performance in 2021, Randy Arozarena may have disappointed some fantasy owners, but he still delivered a pretty darn good fantasy season. That said, he’s either going to go down as the luckiest player in history, or he’s doing something (or lots of things) that Statcast, and my xBABIP equation, is oblivious to. His full body of work remains a small sample size, but it’s worth noting he vastly outperformed his xBABIP in 2020, and also outperformed his xwOBA each season since his 2019 debut. He’s a tricky one though because the power is real and there’s probably upside from his 2021 HR/FB rate, while his minor league record suggests he’ll make better contact and improve his strikeout rate. So I’m hesitant to advise avoiding him because as always, it comes down to his price. I think the bottom line is that he’ll once again be a nice source of both power and speed, but how exactly he gets there is a bit more challenging with all the moving parts.

After toiling in the minors for many years, the 29-year-old Frank Schwindel return to the Majors like gangbusters, surprising us all by posting a .403 wOBA and .264 ISO. That has earned him a starting job heading into the 2022 season. And while I love his low strikeout rate/power profile, that BABIP is due to collapse. It’s not all bad though because he batted .326, so a significant BABIP decline would still leave him with a slightly positive average in fantasy circles and keep him a decently productive performer for the Cubs. Older guys getting their first chance at the big league level are always a mystery, so I’m real curious to see what he does this season.

Between his HR/FB rate luck and now his good BABIP fortune, Belt’s second highest wOBA was built upon everything falling right. I doubt that happens again for the 33-year-old, so he’s at risk of reverting right back to a replacement level corner guy in shallow mixed leagues.

After an awful first two seasons in the Majors, Nicky Lopez finally translated his minor league success into MLB success. However, it was mostly due to a skyrocketing BABIP, though he also sustained his 2020 walk rate spike and combined that with a strikeout rate rebound. xBABIP ain’t buying the BABIP, which is scary considering the vast majority of his value is driven by his steals, which require him to get on base. If his BABIP falls, his OBP likely will too, providing him with fewer opportunities to contribute in the one counting stat he is expected to.

Man, the Cubs really found some late bloomers, eh?! Rafael Ortega actually made his MLB debut all the way back in 2012! He then didn’t return to the Majors until 2016 and earned sporadic playing time over the years through 2019 before rocking in 2021 over about a half season. The skills look reasonable all around, except for that BABIP that sticks out like a sore thumb. Like Schwindel, Ortega’s surprise performance will earn him a starting role, perhaps even at leadoff. Also like Schwindel, I do like Ortega’s overall skill set and believe that even if his BABIP does come back to Earth, he could still be a decent fantasy contributor and real baseball player. It will once again depend on his cost in your league, but I certainly wouldn’t pay for a repeat.

Luck at its finest: last year in my mixed LABR league, my shortstop got hurt sometime in April, so I had to replace him with someone from the free agent pool. Generally, I prefer a guy who has been earning the most playing time, as it’s unlikely someone is going to stand out that I have a strong projection for. So I settled on Brandon Crawford solely because he plays every day. Little did I know he would set new offensive career highs in like every category. I tried trading him during an early hot streak and failed, then got lazy and just held on. I netted the vast majority of his career year due to dumb luck. Anyhow, that BABIP ain’t happening again. It’s rare for a hitter to post a career low LD% and second highest FB% and yet still post a career best BABIP. That’s not a combination that usually goes together. At age 35, are fantasy owners paying up for Crawford this season? I’m curious how much this career year has boosted his cost.

This was the lowest xBABIP Wil Myers has posted going back to 2015, but his BABIP has remained pretty consistent since 2018. A loss of line drive rate didn’t affect him at all, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect his BABIP to crater in 2022 as you need to consider his significantly better historical xBABIP marks. LD% is pretty random from year to year, so while I would bet on a BABIP dip below .330, I certainly wouldn’t go as far as projecting a sub-.300 mark. With the DH likely an NL thing again and less of an outfield glut in San Diego, he might record his most PAs since 2017.

Man, what a half season for the 23-year-old Luis Robert. I think it was pretty obvious that he needed some good fortune to finish with a .394 BABIP, but the good news here is that an xBABIP of .345 is still elite. Oh, and he has much more HR/FB rate upside, as he severely underperformed last year. The strikeout rate is going to be key here, but I can’t imagine he could maintain a mark around 20% while posting a 16% SwStk%.