2021 Review — Hitter xHR/FB Rate Underperformers

Let’s finish things up in dissecting my hitter xHR/FB rate and its components by patrolling for potential sleepers during your 2022 drafts. We’re going straight to the xHR/FB rate underperformers this time and discussing the hitters whose actual HR/FB rates were most below that mark, using a minimum of 30 fly balls and line drives as defined by Statcast. While the higher xHR/FB rate is not a projection, it does suggest the hitter deserved significantly better, and that might not be accounted for in their various forecasts (though, it will be reflected in the Pod Projections, of course, when they are released).

Top prospect Brandon Marsh made his eagerly anticipated debut with the Angels in mid-July, but ended up disappointing by posting just a .296 wOBA and a measly .102 ISO. Things could have been even worse if it were not for his insane .403 BABIP! However, it wasn’t as bad as it looks. He was easily the biggest xHR/FB rate underperformer, as his actual mark was about half the league average versus an expected mark that was nearly double the league average. For a rookie with a small sample of playing time, xHR/FB rate is super useful. Marsh’s HR/FB rate in the minors didn’t take off until Triple-A last season, and that was over a tiny sample, so it’s anyone’s guess whether his power has truly blossomed or it was a small sample fluke. His MLB xHR/FB rate suggests the power is blossoming, given his high Barrel FB%, but oddly, his average distance of flies and liners was below the league average. There’s a lot here to think that Marsh will be significantly better in 2022, which could make him a great buy, depending on his cost.

Ramon Urias was one of the Barrel FB% leaders and it drove his xHR/FB rate above 20%. That extra power would have made him a prime sleeper, but the changes to Oriole Park will make it far more difficult to get him up to that level. Since he can’t be counted on for steals, fantasy owners are going to be reliant on him providing the homers. Furthermore, it’s unlikely he maintains a .369 BABIP, so I’m less bullish on him now than I was at the end of the season.

Injury or not, J.D. Davis deserved far better than his actual 14.7% HR/FB rate. His Barrel FB% was among the leaders, though like Marsh, his average distance was oddly well below it. Either way, the combination of variables resulted in a xHR/FB rate above 20%, so we can’t blame injury for his decline. Our RosterResource page guesses that if the DH is implemented in the NL, it would be Robinson Cano starting there on the strong side of a platoon with Davis, but that seems super silly to me. A healthy Davis should be a significantly better hitter against all-handed pitchers than a 39-year-old Cano. That should make Davis a prime sleeper in deep leagues.

Cal Raleigh was the Mariners fifth best prospect and 85th overall and got the call to the Majors to make his debut in mid-July. He flopped over a small sample, as his strikeout rate skyrocketed and power disappeared. However, his xHR/FB rate suggests he was actually deserving of a mark right in line with his minor league history. Part of that was due to a major pull tendency, on both his fly balls and line drives. An extreme fly ball rate will benefit his home run total, but also means that his BABIP is always going to be at risk of falling well below the league average. The biggest problem here is that of playing time, as he has two catchers ahead of him on the depth chart, one of them also being a fellow youngster.

Rowdy Tellez also appeared in yesterday’s post discussing hitters who suffered a HR/FB rate decline, but whose xHR/FB rate suggested the decline wasn’t deserved. Tellez’ power didn’t actually decline, or at least not to the degree his HR/FB rate would suggest. It makes him a nice deep league target that should come at an undervalued cost.

Alex Kirilloff was the Twins top prospect and ranked 16th overall so his debut was highly anticipated. Despite recording just six Triple-A plate appearances, he made his Twins debut in mid-April, but ended up missing a chunk of the season due to a wrist injury that eventually required surgery. While on the field, he was acceptable, performing how you might expect given his minor league history. However, even though his HR/FB rate ended up being a professional high, xHR/FB rate suggests that mark should have actually exceeded 20%. That was thanks to better than average marks in three important variables, and despite a low rate of pulled fly balls. I’m still not sure what to make of his power given his mediocre HR/FB rates in the minors though. He has also posted a low FB% throughout most of his career, with marks around 30% in four of five professional stints. That’s fine for his BABIP, but caps his home run season.