2021 Review — Hitter xBABIP Underperformers

Nearly two weeks after introducing my newest hitter xBABIP equation, it’s time to unveil the list of underperformers. This is the group that most underperformed their xBABIP, which could result in undervaluation if your leaguemates are paying for a 2021 repeat, and not a 2022 rebound. Of course, remember that a higher 2021 xBABIP than actual BABIP is not a 2022 projection. However, if you’re using historical BABIP to forecast future BABIP, then I would highly advise you use xBABIP instead of actual BABIP as your historical marks, especially for hitters with a small sample of playing time. I’ll use a 75 ball in play minimum once again.

After an intriguing 134 PAs (from a fantasy perspective, at least) during his 2020 debut, Leody Taveras was an interesting sleeper heading into the 2021 season. Sadly, he was a huge flop, posting just a .209 wOBA and getting demoted to Triple-A. He’s now buried on the depth chart or just an extended Adolis Garcia slump away from getting another chance. His xBABIP suggests he was massively unlucky. Given his potentially superb defense (he was bad in 2020, but elite in 2021), even just a repeat of his 2020 slash line should be enough to at least keep him in the lineup. He’s a deep league speculation.

Former top prospect Nick Senzel is exactly the type we want to identify here. He also appeared atop my “league averageish BABIP, but significantly higher xBABIP” list. The same size here is small as well (so was Taveras’), but Senzel supporters definitely could use any reason for optimism. He’s the perfect deep league speculation, as his playing time outlook remains cloudy.

Before fracturing his fingers and then getting placed on administrative leave for the rest of the season, Marcell Ozuna was a big disappointment. Aside from his power plunging, his BABIP fell to a career low. But xBABIP exclaims there’s no actual problem and the poor BABIP was the result of some seriously poor fortune. I totally get some of you banning him for your teams, but for those who are still willing to buy his potential stats, he may very well be a bargain.

It was a rookie season filled with strikeouts for Brent Rooker. So a low BABIP ensured his batting average would be a killer. However, his xBABIP was near elite, as I’d have to imagine that strong line drive rate was what deserved him a much better rate than he posted. While he should earn PAs against southpaws at the least, he should battle it out with Trevor Larnach for more playing time against righties as well. We know he has big power, and he’s walked significantly more in the minors, suggesting his value could get a huge boost in OBP leagues.

Aaron Hicks is expected to return from injury and is coming off the lowest BABIP of his career. He’s never been a BABIP guy, as he’s only once posted a .300 mark and sports a career .268 mark. But he was undeserving of the career low he set in 2021, which came over a tiny sample, a timeframe that anything could happen with BABIP. Don’t forget about him especially in OBP leagues.

RosterResource is projecting Tyler Wade to earn more PAs at SS than anyone else, but really, it’s expected to be a grab bag. Instead, I like Luis Rengifo as the sleeper of the bunch. He’s shown increasing power in the minors, doesn’t strike out often, and his BABIP should have been significantly higher last year. He has also shown a greater willingness to steal bases in the minors that has yet to translate to the Majors, but could at any time. Another deep sleeper in AL-Only leagues.

Alejandro Kirk is one of like 16 catchers on the Blue Jays who may be deserving of playing time, so clearly his playing time is probably never going to be secure. Despite not playing above High-A ball when he debuted in 2020, he has been quite impressive during his short time in the Majors. Given a fantastic strikeout rate, it was disappointing he batted just .242, but that was solely because of the low BABIP that xBABIP calculates to be a complete fluke. Depending on his price, he could be an excellent second catcher in deeper leagues.

Gosh, what’s there left to say about Cody Bellinger? His collapse last season was epic. A quick look at his injury history and you find he dealt with a fractured fibula in his left leg, hamstring tightness, and a fractured left rib, which ended his season. All of these ailments sent him to the IL. Were they the cause of his sudden struggles? I have to imagine they at least contributed, but it’s anyone’s guess if that’s the whole story. The good news is xBABIP suggests he was deserving of far better. The bad news is even a .252 BABIP would have been well below his career mark, though surprisingly higher than his down 2020. His power also disappeared, while his strikeout rate reached its highest since his 2017 debut and SwStr% hit a new high. Everything went wrong here. Given the upside, you have to think about at what price he makes for a great risk/reward, as projections are probably useless.