Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 2/16/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Jacob deGrom (+7.93)- deGrom is rising after signing a long term deal with the Rangers. With deGrom it is all about health. If he is healthy, he is the top pitcher in the game, if not the top player in fantasy. If he has a good first spring training start he will start moving towards the first round in drafts very quickly. 

Kevin Gausman (+12.09)- Gausman is rising as people see him as a guy that may have gotten unlucky in 2022 in spite of a good overall line. He did have an unreal .399 BABIP against righties so that should improve, but I don’t necessarily feel like that means he will be taking a step forward either. I think he has a decent chance at repeating or coming close to what he did in 2022, so I think he is pretty appropriately ranked by the market. 

Cristian Javier (+14.53)- It is not surprising to see Javier rising after an amazing season and even better postseason. He should be locked into a rotation spot and could push upwards of 175 innings. I do worry that his walk and home run rates regress back a little as a full time starter, but he has legit ace upside. Unfortunately as the price goes up, you need him to perform to that level in order to warrant taking him where he is starting to go in drafts. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Charlie Morton (+15.32)- I think Morton’s rise has something to do with his relative safety at a point in the draft where most pitchers have glaring warts. While the overall line wasn’t stellar for Morton, he was pretty good from June on posting a 3.89 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with a 31.4% strikeout rate. I think he is pretty appropriately priced as a safe middle of the rotation starter. 

Chris Sale (+13.5)- I think Sale’s price rising has a lot to do with his price being too low early in drafts. While he missed almost all of 2022 with multiple injuries after missing all of 2020 and most of 2021 with Tommy John surgery, when he was on the mound in 2021, he looked good and the injuries from 2022 are pretty fluky. I think Sale offers a fair amount of risk, but also a ton of value if he looks healthy in spring, but the price will likely continue to rise.

Kodai Senga (+19.93)- It is not surprising to see Senga rise a ton after signing a long term deal with the Mets. I think he has the potential to be a really interesting pitcher but there are some concerns. He has issues with command at points and may struggle to adjust to going every five days as Japanese teams only pitch their starters once a week. That being said, he threw 148 innings in 22 starts so there is reason to believe that he will be able to go deep enough for wins. I think if the price gets too high, I will be out, but now is the time to buy if you want some shares. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Kyle Wright (-11.89)- Wright is dropping as most people think there will be some regression following his 2022 breakout. He definitely won’t win 21 games again and while he regresses, I wonder if he will begin to become a bargain in drafts at some point. He was pretty stellar until he got tired in September, but he rebounded with a fantastic shutout in the postseason. If the hate goes too far, I’ll be a buyer as I actually think he has a pretty safe floor due to his great walk rate and ability to get a lot of ground balls. 

Lance McCullers Jr. (-13.85)- McCullers was fantastic while he was on the mound, but once again struggled to stay healthy and only threw 47.2 innings in the regular season. He also posted a double digit walk rate for the second season in a row. He is a high risk/high reward player, so in shallower leagues with IL spots, he makes a lot of sense, but in deeper formats, he is an easy fade. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Andrew Heaney (+23.83)- Heaney is rising after signing a deal to go to Texas. Like McCullers, Heaney was fantastic when he was on the mound, but he was not able to log more than 72.2 innings. I have long been a Heaney fan, but as the price rises, he becomes less of a worthy gamble as he has not thrown more than 130 innings since 2018. I want him to be a thing and will take some shots in some shallow leagues, but it is a pretty big risk. 

Justin Steele (+18.15)- Steele is rising after a quietly stellar season. He lowered his walk rate and his home run rate while not sacrificing too much of the swing and miss. While he took a nice step forwardI worry that the WHIP will kill you. He has put up two straight seasons of 1.35 WHIP and with his zone contact and walk rates being as high as they are, I don’t know that it will get much better. With the Cubs adding both Taillon and Smyly, he will need to pitch well to keep his rotation spot and I just don’t know that I am as comfortable with him as I was a month or two ago. 

Zach Eflin (+86.48)- Eflin is rising after signing with Tampa Bay and for good reason. Tampa has a great track record with pitchers and they gave him a long term deal. Eflin was up and down in 2022, but if you look at the box scores, it was mostly a few bad starts. The only problem is he is a guy that has struggled to stay on the mound and with his rising cost, I worry he is beginning to price himself in a place where the risk becomes too much. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Trevor Rogers (-29.37)- I am a little surprised that Rogers is falling at this point. 2022 was a disaster for him, but he was a top 75 pick last year and I think the talent we saw in 2021 is still in his arm. Maybe I am just hoping he is due for some positive regression, but if the changeup looks good in spring training, I think he could be a steal. 

Tyler Anderson (-32.66)- Anderson is dropping after leaving the Dodgers for the Angels and most everyone expects regression for him after an amazing 2022 season. I think the regression is to be expected, but I also wonder if the hate is going way too far. He still has a stellar walk rate and while the home runs may go back up, I don’t expect him to give up 1.5 hr/9. He has gone from a bust to a sleeper in one draft season. 

Bailey Ober (-46.88)- Ober is dropping as there are real concerns about what his workload will look like after only posting 56 innings in the Majors in 2022. I really like Ober as a pitcher in spite of the fact I worry about a home run rate developing because he has a great defense behind him and he does a very good job of not issuing walks, but I struggle with drafting a guy that probably tops out at 130 innings without having massive upside on a per inning basis. 

Michael Kopech (-24.76)- Kopech is falling after struggling to stay healthy again. When he was on the mound in 2021, he looked like the elite prospect we remember him being, but he just never seemed right after May in 2022. Reports so far have been up and down on him, so I am avoiding him until we see him pitch in spring training, but with the price so low, he might end up being a pretty decent gamble. 

 

Others of Note

Ross Stripling (+39.66)- Stripling is rising after signing in San Francisco which is a fantastic park to pitch in. Stripling had a quietly fantastic season in which he posted a career best ERA, walk rate, home run rate and WHIP. I do worry about what his inning total will look like and I worry about the defense behind him, but he is still a very affordable and pretty decent gamble to keep the gains we saw him make in 2022. 

Andrew Painter (+58.39)- Painter is rising as it looks like he could be one of the big pitching prospects to debut early in 2023. He is a pretty advanced prospect, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience as he only threw 28,1 innings in AA last season and a total of 103 innings in the minors last year. He may only throw 130-140 innings total and I doubt he makes the team out of spring training, but with the Phillies pushing to get back to the World Series, if they have an injury in the rotation or someone Falters, he could be up pretty quickly.