Hitter Buy Low Strategy — The Proven

Last week, I discussed disappointing unproven hitters that would likely be easier to buy low on, if you so chose, than proven veterans. Today, let’s shift over to guys we’re really talking about when targeting buy low candidate. The caveat here is that most owners will not be willing to sell low, so it’s going to be more difficult to succeed here. Let’s now dive in and decide which names are worth pursuing.

Note that these names were cherry picked as I was scrolling down my CBS Sports league and comparing projected rank to actual rank. I stuck with players originally ranked within the top 100 and healthy, with one exception.

Ketel Marte

The combination of a career worst BABIP of just .237 and his lowest HR/FB rate since 2022, plus his lowest FB% since 2018 has conspired to make Marte a surprising disappointment so far. The good news is that he has dramatically underperformed his xwOBA, thought that might make him difficult to wrangle away from savvy owners.

His HardHit% and maxEV remain strong and in line with his history, but his Barrel% has dipped back into single-digits after his only two low-teen marks the past two seasons. That said, his Barrel% still represents his third highest mark and is above the league average. His swing speed is fine and he has posted the highest FB Pull% of his career, which theoretically should be a positive for his HR/FB rate.

He looks like a textbook buy low with only a couple of minor red flags (drop in walk rate, career worst SwStr%). I would go after him fairly aggressively, but the expectation is you pay less than his draft day cost.

Cal Raleigh

Well duh, after a career year with bests across many, many categories, there was only one direction to go from there. However, no one expected just a .254 wOBA though 181 PAs! Currently on the IL, he has become a bit easier to buy low on.

There’s a whole bunch of stuff to be concerned about, namely a career worst strikeout rate, HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel%. His FB% is up at a crazy 60.4%, while he has rarely hit line drives. It has crushed his BABIP, which sits below .200, and helps explain why even his xwOBA is sub-.300.

His slow start has been less about poor fortune like Marte and more about just poor hitting. This is the type of buy low that you need to just close your eyes and hope because the numbers say he’s deserving of his performance. That doesn’t mean he won’t improve upon the underlying skills though and you have to assume that given his history, he will. Perhaps his oblique has been hampering him for some time?

I’m quite curious what his market value is right now, especially now that he’s on the IL. If you’ve bought recently, what did you have to give up? I’m really wishy-washy here as I was down on him at cost, but did manage to buy him in the Tout Wars Champions league thanks to my league-specific strategy. You have to assume when he returns, he’ll be back on a 30+ homer pace, though that doesn’t seem as exciting with other catchers hitting at a similar pace.

Jarren Duran

Duran has been a consistent power/speed combo meal with a potential usable batting average, depending on where his BABIP landed. This year, that has continued to be the case, but his BABIP has dropped nearly 100 points, leaving him with a batting average below the Mendoza Line.

For whatever reason, his batted ball profile is totally out of line, as it has become heavy on pop-ups, and light on line drives. It has led to a sub-.300 xwOBA, suggesting a lot of that low .230 BABIP is deserved. What has happened here?

I typically assume that a hitter’s batted ball profile and BABIP will return to normal levels and since he continues to steal bases and hit a home run here and there, I would imagine Duran’s going to be fine. Since the risk of being platooned seems gone and he’s back at leadoff, I think he makes for a solid buy low if you need steals.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

I covered Tatis a couple of weeks ago as an xwOBA underperformer and mentioned him again last week as a FB Pull% decliner. Incredibly, nothing has changed.

He still hasn’t homered through 193 PAs, continues to underperform his xwOBA rather significantly, and sports just a 5.7% FB Pull%, compared to his career average of 22.7% and league average of 26.2%. He’s still hitting the ball as hard as always, but striking out a bit more and posting a career low FB%.

I honestly don’t know what could possibly cause the putrid FB Pull%. His BatSpd is actually up from the last two seasons. His FastSw% is up too. What on Earth is going on?! You have to assume he’ll suddenly figure it out, but man, an explanation would be cool. Sure, I’ll buy, especially if you’re mid-pack or worse and need to take a risk with big upside.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman’s strikeout rate sits at a career best, while his batted ball profile is right in line with his recent past. Yet, his BABIP has slid below .300 for the first time since 2012 to represent a career low, and his HR/FB rate has slipped to single digits for the first time. That’s a surprise considering his HardHit% is above his career average and Barrel% right in line. His xwOBA is significantly above his actual mark suggesting it’s all a matter of poor fortune so far. More good news comes from his BatSpd which is actually up slightly from the last two years.

After digging through his profile, the only red flag I see is a FB Pull% matching his career low at just 12%. He’s never been a big FB Pull% guy though and hasn’t had an issue hitting home runs, plus his Oppo% is the same as it’s always been. The only change is going to center more frequently, which does have a significantly lower HR/FB rate than opposite field shot, but still higher than the latter.

Since he’s 36 years old already and hasn’t been a big home run hitter the last two years, he seems like a guy that wouldn’t be too difficult to buy low on. It would be easy to feel like age is catching up and there might not be a rebound. I’d be buying here for as long as he remains in a strong lineup position in an elite lineup.

Willy Adames

What the heck happened to his power?! He, uhhh, also completely stopped walking, which is just bizarre. His walk rate has been in double digits for three years running, but has fallen to just 3.6% this season. How does that happen?!

His HardHit% is right in line, but his maxEV is down and his Barrel% is at its lowest since his 2018 debut, though not alarmingly low. His flyball direction rates are right in line with history, though his Hard% on those flyballs are at a career low. His BatSpd is the same as last year, though that’s down from 2024.

I really don’t know what’s going on here. If it weren’t for the massive decline in walk rate, I’d think the power would return, but that change makes me wonder if something else is going on. In fact, he’s swinging at a career high rate of balls outside the zone and a career low rate of balls inside the zone. It’s leading to more called strikes and fewer walks. Why? A Tout Wars Champions league owner would like some answers!

It’s hard to give up given the upside, so I wouldn’t suggest outright dropping him. However, I don’t think I’d be seeking to buy low here.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

A glance at most of Guerrero’s metrics would make you think that he’s been one of the most elite hitters in the game. Strong walk and strikeout rates, elite HardHit% and maxEV numbers, along with consistent double digit Barrel% marks. And yet, his results have rarely matches the strength of those metrics. This year, he has walked as often as he has struck out and everything else looks normal. But the power is gone!

Incredibly, he’s sporting just a .095 ISO, even with a maxEV of 116 MPH. How is that possible?! His HardHit% and Barrel% are at their lowest since 2019, which is weird considering he’s at that magical age 27. His FB Pull% is at his career mark and he’s hitting more balls to center than the opposite field, which based on league average HR/FB rates, should be a slight positive. But like Adames, the Hard% on those flies is at a career low. Unlike Adames, Guerrero’s Hard% is way down. His career mark sits at 42.1% and he’s now at just 28.9%. His BatSpd is down ever so slightly, but completely fine, so why is he failing to hit his flies hard?

Back in 2024, he exited May with just five home runs and a HR/FB rate barely into double digits, so a slow power start isn’t new for him. Of course, he’s a bit worse than that now, but it’s nothing than a two-homer week couldn’t fix.

I think my expectations of him are higher than most since I drool over these skills, but I can’t help but assume a full rebound has to come. He’s only 27! It’s not like he’s 34 and on the decline. So yeah, I’d be buying.

Pete Alonso

Alonso has been much better in May after a brutal opening month, but his season line still looks meh and certainly not what owners paid for. Really, the only differences are a low BABIP, though not significantly below his career mark, and a career worst HR/FB rate.

Lets’ talk power since that’s why you bought him. His HardHit% is actually just below last year and last year was a career best. So we’re good there. His maxEV is down slightly, but it’s only mid-May and it’s still near elite, so we’re good there. Finally, we move to Barrel% and we do find he’s down to a career low, but still in double digits. His FB Pull% is up from last year, but last year was a career worst and the first in the teens, so this year, while better, is still below his career average and the league. His BatSpd is down by just over a mile per hour, which might be meaningful or nothing to worry about, though his FastSw% is well down from the last two years.

Some of the problem is a career low FB%, as for whatever reason, he’s traded them for grounders, which isn’t ideal. For the most part, there are only minor red flags here that makes you wonder if this is going to be more like his 2024, as opposed to his 2025. However, that still represents a nice rebound the rest of the way. I would buy here as there’s nothing glaring here to make me believe he’s going to end the season a bust.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Once again, everything under the hood looks normal except for his power. He has never posted a HR/FB rate below the 16.9% mark he recorded in 2024, and yet here he is with an 8.5% mark. His HardHit% is sitting at a career low and below league average for the first time, while his Barrel% is just over a third of what it was last year, plummeting from 15% to just 5.3%. Amazingly, his xwOBA is actually below is actual wOBA, which is a scary thought considering this has been the worst offensive performance he’s had so far.

His BatSpd is down a mile per hour, but his FastSw% is down dramatically. Is that enough to explain the lack of power? I don’t know, but the down power metrics do make him a little riskier as a rebound candidate than some of the other names on the list.

Still, he’s swiped 12 bases already and hits in an excellent lineup. The upside is massive. Maybe he disappoints in power, maybe he fully rebounds, but he’s worth at least seeing what his owner is looking for in return.

Kyle Tucker

I figured Tucker’s HR/FB rate would disappoint with the Cubs given their home park, but I liked him much more as a member of the Dodgers. So it’s with great surprise to see a career worst wOBA and an even lower xwOBA.

His strikeout rate is spiked to its highest since the short 2020 season, driven by an increased SwStr% to double digits for the first time since that same year. That’s a big deal, but most of the disappointment stems from a single digit HR/FB rate. Last year was already a career worst at just 11.8%. His HardHit% is generally in line with history, but his Barrel% is the lowest of his career and well below average. He had been in double digits for five straight seasons, but sits at just 6.1% now.

His BatSpd is own marginally, but not enough to call it out as the culprit. His FastSw% is fine, but his Blast rates are down meaningfully. Interestingly, his FB Pull% is at a career high. Also just as interesting is that the Hard% on all his flies is at a career low. So he’s pulling more of his flies, but he’s not hitting those flies as hard, so he’s not exactly benefiting from that batted ball direction. His FB% is also at a career low, so he’s giving himself even fewer opportunities to hit one over the wall.

Aside from the power decline, he’s swiped just three bases after 25 last year. We know the Dodgers will run, so it’s certainly not an organizational thing.

Tucker is a toughie. He’s in a fantastic situation that made him a near lock for elite fantasy value. But there are more warning signs here than for most. Then again, he’s just 29 years old, so you wouldn’t expect a decline. I’m sure he’ll rebound and be fine, but I would hesitate a little more, particularly because his OBP is fine and he’s still not running nearly as often as expected. Buy only if you feel the discount makes it worth it.

Rafael Devers

My gosh, between Devers and Adames, it’s no wonder the Giants sport the fourth worst wRC+ in baseball. Not only is Devers’ wOBA below .300, but his xwOBA is even lower at just .266! Can you believe he’s been luck to be this bad?! Like Adames, his walk rate has collapsed, having been cut by more than half, while his strikeout rate is sitting at a career worst. His BABIP and batted ball profile are fine, but his HR/FB rate has also been cut in half.

His HardHit% is down, though still above average, while his Barrel%, which has stuck in the mid-double digits since 2020, is down to just 7.4%. What is going on in San Francisco?! Everything is down in his bat tracking profile, from BatSpd (down only slightly though) to his FastSw% to his Blast rates.

It’s not like this is an Oracle Park thing, even though it’s one of the worst parks in baseball for both offense and home runs for left-handers. He has actually posted a higher .316 wOBA at home versus just a .282 mark on the road. Oh, and his road HR/FB stands at just 3.8%! So really what’s afflicting him is being away from home, which is not what I would have guessed.

I really don’t know what to make of him. For a guy so consistently good for so long to suddenly decline in so many metrics at age 29 isn’t normal. Somehow, I own him too in the Tout Wars Champions league, but keep trotting him out there because he’s Rafael Devers. I’m not sure I would be too aggressive trying to buy here as there are more red flags than the majority of the other names. But again like with Tucket, it all depends on the price as he’ll almost surely improve.

Manny Machado

Machado is a relatively easy one since this is all BABIP driven. He’s sporting an impossibly low .198 mark versus a .297 career average, while his batted ball profile is almost identical to his career. The power is down, although his HR/FB rate is near last year. But, his HardHit% is at its lowest since 2020, maxEV hasn’t even reached 110 MPH (it was 114.8 MPH last year), while his Barrel% is easily a career low at less than half last year’s mark.

His bat tracking numbers are down like Devers’, but he’s 33 years old, which is a big difference from 29. The BABIP and batting average will certainly rebound, but I worry about his power. Oh, and he swiped 11 bases in 2024 and 14 in 2025, but has just one in two attempts this year. It’s possible the steals are gone again, suggesting that he’s not going to pace for his draft day cost the rest of the way.

He’s not an aggressive buy low for me either.

Trea Turner

A .285 BABIP doesn’t look so terrible, but when it compares to a .337 career average and a .350 mark last year, it does. Heck, Turner has never been below .310 in a full season! So that, combined with the second highest strikeout rate of his career, are killing his batting average. One reason his average is down is a sudden lack of line drives, as his LD% is at the second lowest rate of his career. Oddly, he has somewhat offset that by rarely popping up, but his xwOBA is almost identical to his actual mark, so his BABIP appears deserved.

His power is down a bit, but you care most about his steals. He’s only got six of those in seven tries after he swiped 36 last year. A lot of that has to do with the .286 OBP, versus never falling below .320. Will his BABIP improve, raising his OBP and steal opportunities? Probably. But he’s also 33 and age-related decline could hit at any time, especially to someone heavily reliant on his speed.

It’s a shot in the dark trying to predict his rest of season steals, but I would need a nice discount to buy low here expecting much more than a low 20s pace.

Julio Rodríguez

Rodríguez isn’t actually that far off from a pace he should be at given his cost. His HR/FB rate is down, but right in line with 2024, and his stolen bases are down, which there’s not going to be an obvious explanation for.

From a power standpoint, his HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% are all at career lows. Yup, every metric supports the power decline. But hey, he’s still just 25, so even if the metrics are down at this very moment, it doesn’t mean this is who he is. Just like we project breakouts heading into a season, a hitter could break out in the middle of the season, right? His FB Pull% is down slightly and his Hard% on his flyballs are in a scary trend, declining every single year since his 2022 debut. That’s not great.

The mere five steals is a surprise given his OBP is barely below the last two years. Like I mentioned above with Turner, it’s hard to predict steals. He could decide to up his running game or just not. Nobody knows! Unfortunately, Turner’s upside there comes from improvement potential in his OBP, while that’s not necessarily the case here.

Before you shout that Rodríguez starts slow every year, that’s partially true. In four Mar/Apr months, he has only posted a wRC+ above 100 once. But in May, he’s been at least 105 every year. Surprisingly, in June he’s been all over the place, with two marks below 100, and mark at 102, and then a massive 2022 with a 162 mark. He then really turns it on over the final three months, though not every year, as he did have one Aug and one Sep with near league average wRC+ marks. So okay, he has definitely been way better in the second half, but he’s actually not performing much worse now than he has historically.

Does that means we’re going to see a career year if it comes with another huge second half? Maybe! He might be one of the hardest to pry from his owners since they aren’t going to notice his slightly below average steals pace as much and the rest of his stats aren’t weak enough to think his owner will impatiently sell at a discount. But it couldn’t hurt to try.

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Sooooo, who are you buying and who are you passing on?