Deep League Starting Pitchers (Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán)

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha

Eduardo Rodriguez (305 ADP)

The 29-year-old Rodriguez missed most of last season because of personal reasons. He missed an additional three weeks because of a strained ribcage. Even with the missed time, he was able to make 17 starts. Here are his results from before and after his time off.

While he had a higher strikeout rate in the first half, his second-half xFIP was better because of fewer walks and more groundballs.

One factor that could be causing the strikeout drop is a declining average fastball velocity It has gone down from 92.6 mph in 2021 to 92.0 in the first half of 2022 and 91.6 in the second half.

To get the additional groundballs, he threw his changeup and sinker more as seen by his 2022 pitch mix.

I have no idea why he moved away from his only effective pitch, the changeup. And of the three fastball types he throws, the sinker was easily the best last season and he stayed away from it. Even if he goes just sinker-change, there just aren’t any effective pitchers who just throw those two pitches. The pair always comes with an effective third pitch (e.g. Logan Webb and his slider).

For now, Rodriquez is still going too early with all the question marks around him. I’d be more interested in some of the guys featured in this article going over 100 picks later. I could see moving him up if he adds velocity in Spring Training and simplifies his pitch mix.

Nick Pivetta (406 ADP)

Pivetta had a rollercoaster season, with overall disappointing results (4.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9). The results should not have been a surprise with him losing 1.3 mph off his fastball and his strikeout rate dropping from 10.2 K/9 to 8.8 K/9. After struggling in April (8.27 ERA), his results were decent in May and June (2.18 ERA and 0.94 WHIP). Over the last three months, he was a complete disaster (6.04 ERA and 1.67 WHIP).

For him to be a rosterable pitcher, he needs to improve somewhere. The most obvious would be to throw strikes (3.7 BB/9 in 2022). He has never been much of a strike thrower with a career 3.5 BB/9 and 1.39 WHIP.

Another improvement would be if he regains some of the fastball velocity he lost last season.

A final improvement is if he threw his slider (20% usage, 15% SwStr%, 44% GB%) more and started phasing out his curve (27% usage, 8% SwStr%, 57% GB%).

It will probably take some combination of all three factors, better control, higher velocity, and more slider usage, for him to finally take that step forward and be a rosterable fantasy option.

DL Hall (416 ADP)

I’m just not sure Hall is going to be a starting pitcher in 2023, but I’ll profile him anyway. He did make 18 starts in AAA where his control struggled (5.8 BB/9 and 4.70 ERA). The control issues continued into the majors with a 4.0 BB/9 and 5.93 ERA. Most of that damage came in his one start (5 ER in 3.2 IP). As a reliever, he was better with a 3.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9.

For now, he is at least a useable reliever for the Orioles.

In his small sample, his three main pitches got decent results and were in the strike zone (the results on the curve are garbage).

His top three pitches all graded out as average or better on their results. According to prospect reports, his curve was supposed to be his best pitch probably based on its above-average velocity (81 mph) and spin (2600 rpm). After watching some video, he slows his arm a ton on the curve compared to other pitches. Hitters aren’t fooled and are just taking the pitch.

Another point is that his fastball averaged 95.4 mph in his start and averaged 96.6 mph when in the bullpen. His pitch results might play down when starting because of the velocity drop.

He has some pieces to be a good starter. In Spring Training, I’m going to see if he is being stretched out as a starter and has some control. If both aren’t happening, I’m out.

Domingo Germán (418 ADP)

What a boring ass profile and he is probably only being drafted this high because of his 3.61 ERA (4.33 xFIP and 4.22 SIERA).

Here are the 2022 stats for German and for Jordan Lyles who is being drafted 250 picks later (686 ADP).

Stat: German, Lyles
K/9: 7.2, 7.2
BB/9: 2.4, 2.6
GB%: 40%, 40%
xFIP: 4.33, 4.39
ERA: 3.61, 4.42

I would grade German higher based on the Yankees being in contention for more Wins. Besides the team context, they are the same pitchers.

It’s tough to find any positives in German. A four-year decline in his average fastball velocity (96.4 mph to 94.7 mph to 93.6 mph to 93.5 mph to 92.7 mph) led to a decline in strikeouts (11.3 K/9 to 10.7 to 9.6 to 9.0 to 7.2) over the same seasons.

While his curveball is his best pitch (18% SwStr%, 48% GB%), he throws it more than any other pitcher thereby maxing out its effectiveness.

His changeup had been effective (20% SwStr% in 2018) in the past but not this season (10% SwStr%, 37% GB%). While his fastball has lost almost 4 mph, his slider hasn’t even down 1 mph. The velocity difference between the two has shrunk from 14.3% in his rookie season to 11.7% this past year. The change seems to be a better pitch with more of a velocity difference.

German rounds out four disappointing guys after the last article having four guys with a nice upside. With German, he needs to at least hold his ground and stop losing velocity and strikeouts. Additionally, it would be nice if his changeup regained its effectiveness.