Deep League Starting Pitchers: Montas, Holmes, Sugano, Miller, & Montgomery

Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson
Sasaki, Singer, Bello, Soriano, & Weathers
Nelson, Brown, Lowder, & Megill

Frankie Montas (309 ADP)

The 31-year-old righty had an interesting 2024 season. He signed with the Reds before the season but struggled with a 5.01 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9 in 19 starts. He was then traded to the Brewers where his strikeout rate jumped from 7.5 K/9 to 11.0 K/9.

The only possible reason for the improvement was a 1 mph uptick in fastball velocity. His swinging-strike rate followed with just a 1% point increase. That’s the only change  Even the STUPH models barely budged. Pitching+ went from a 99 to 100. BotOverall went from 50 to 51. The simplest and most likely explanation was that he underperformed with the Reds and overperformed with the Brewers.

Two issues that remained constant. The first was his walk rate, 4.0 BB/9 with the Reds and 3.9 BB/9 with the Brewers. Also, he continued to allow a ton of home runs with a jump from 1.4 HR/9 to 1.6 HR/9. Most of the struggles came against lefties who posted a .867 OPS against him while righties posted a .616 OPS.

I’m guessing the Mets will try to shrink that split by having him focus on his splitter (18% SwStr%) but it has problems finding the plate (27% Zone%). With even more splitters, his walk rate might explode.

I’m unsure how to evaluate him going forward with his ERA and innings pitched never being consistent.

In a redraft league, he feels like a bench arm to see how his first few weeks go and then he can be re-evaluated.

Clay Holmes (321 ADP)

The last time the 31-year-old right started in the majors was in 2018. The reliever wanted to transition to starting so the Mets are giving him that opportunity.

Holmes starts with a solid sinker that will help transition. Historically pitchers lose about 2 mph in the transition so his fastball will drop from 96.6 mph to 94.6 mph. As a starter in 2018, he sat 94.3 mph, so the value lines up. Additionally, his slider should check in at around 83.5 mph. Those were the only two pitches he threw last season but there are reports he is trying to add a changeup and four-seamer.

Two comps who made a similar transition from reliever to starter are Jordan Hicks and Cristopher Sánchez. Both featured 94.5 sinkers and had decent slider usage but both need a change/spitter to be semi-successful. Sanchez’s transition stuck while Hicks returned to the bullpen by the season’s end (will retry starting again this season). The market seems to be pricing Holmes for the various outcomes with Sanchez (171 ADP) going first, then Holmes (321 ADP), and finally Hicks (500 ADP).

Remember to keep the projected innings in check even though he plans to throw 160 IP. Since 2021, the most innings thrown by a pitcher going from 100% relieving to 100% starting was 146 IP by Seth Lugo in 2023. Probably 130 IP is a reasonable projection for Holmes.

Holmes is such a wild card with the transition. He needs to add a third league-average pitch. He needs to hold up to a starter’s workload. Even with both traits, it’s tough to know if he will be fantasy-viable. Shot in the dark.

Bobby Miller (336 ADP)

After a solid 2023 season (3.76 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 1.10 WHIP in 124 IP), the 25-year-old righty fell apart in 2024 with a 8.52 ERA (4.70 xFIP), 4.8 BB/9, and 2.7 HR/9 in 56 IP. Additionally, he lost 1.4 mph off his fastball.

All his struggles began in the second week of the season when he went on the IL for shoulder inflammation. He returned in June, was never the same, and was demoted to AAA twice. Even with the Dodgers decimated starting staff, he was not included on any post-season roster.

Miller (and Montgomery) showed no signs of breaking out of their funk. Managers are going to need to go on faith for a bounce back but the odds are against them.

Since 2020 there have been 23 pitchers who in season 1 had between a 3.40 and 4.00 ERA in at least 120. In Season 2, their ERA was 6.00 and threw at least 40 IP. Here is how their next season went. Not a good outlook for Montgomery, Elder, and Miller.

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman.bsky.social) 2025-01-09T15:27:12.120Z

In any draft-and-hold or best-ball format, I’m staying away. There is a decent chance he won’t contribute at all next season. In a league with FAAB moves, he’s a must-draft. Draft him late, monitor his control during Spring Training, and see if he’s worth keeping. If not, he’s an easy drop for another dart throw.

Tomoyuki Sugano (365 ADP)

I don’t have much on the 35-year-old righty except for some comps I found in a previous Mining the News where I compared him to Luis Severino (305 ADP).

Jordan Montgomery (393 ADP)

After three straight seasons of a sub-3.85 ERA, the 32-year-old lefty fell apart last season with a 6.4 K/9 (career-low), 1.65 WHIP, and 6.23 ERA. Several reasons were behind the decline. The most obvious and possibly the cause for the other factors was his late signing (March 26). He didn’t have the same supervised ramp-up that other pitchers had when he debuted on April 19th with a 91.8 mph fastball, 1.4 mph below his 2023 average velocity. His 3.4 BB/9 was a four-year high. On July 2nd, he went on the IL with knee inflammation for three weeks. Also, he dealt with knee contusion. Finally, the was able to keep lefties under control (.731 vs OPS) but righties got to him (.891 vs OPS).

It’s tough to find any upside with a 4.62 xFIP in the first half, 4.74 xFIP in the second half, and 4.57 xFIP in September. I’m just going to be on repeat from some of the other arms I examined today, I would stay away from him in leagues where he can’t be replaced. Otherwise, roster and see if 2024 was just a bad nightmare.