Erick Fedde & Tommy Pham Head to Cardinals

As expected, there have been a flurry of trades as we approach the trade deadline, though none have reached blockbuster status as I type this. Perhaps the most fascinating one involved the White Sox, Cardinals, and Dodgers, as each team sent players all over the map. Let’s focus on the two players the White Sox traded to the Cardinals, Erick Fedde 페디 and Tommy Pham, as they are probably the most fantasy relevant names at the moment. The new White Sox arrival Miguel Vargas and new Dodgers acquisition Tommy Edman also have the potential to contribute over the rest of the season.

We will once again use Statcast rolling three year park factors to guesstimate how the park switch might affect the performance of Fedde and Pham. Let’s begin with Fedde.

After pitching last year in Korea, Fedde returned to the Majors with a new pitch mix, throwing his cutter, changeup, and slider more, his sinker less, and eliminating his curveball. The results suggest the new pitch mix has worked so far, though both his SIERA and xERA suggest he’s been lucky. That said, even those marks are significantly better than what he has posted in the past, so he’s clearly a better pitcher now.

Anyway, the park factor comparison is shocking. I’ve always thought of Guaranteed Rate Field (GRF) to be a hitter friendly park and a great place for home runs. That’s apparently not the case! It has actually been slightly pitcher friendly for home runs and total runs. I figured Fedde would get a big boost moving to the more pitcher friendly environment, so now that it’s clear I was wrong, let’s review the individual factors.

Busch is more hitter friendly across the more in total hits and all the non-home run hits. That’s not great for BABIP, which could add fuel to expected regression that Fedde figured to endure even had he stayed put. He has posted a .265 BABIP so far, which would be difficult to sustain no matter the park he pitches in. He has allowed a lower than league average LD% and higher than average IFFB%, so perhaps he’s deserving of most or all of that low BABIP. But those rates could be fluky themselves, so I’d bet his BABIP jumps over the rest of the way.

The home run factor difference was expected, but I did believe GRF inflated them, as opposed to slightly suppressed them. Still, this is a nice move in keeping his fly balls in the park, that he hasn’t had issues with that so far this season, posting a 10.1% HR/FB rate, a bit better than average.

Busch is also slightly more pitcher friendly in walk rate factor, but quite hitter friendly in strikeouts, as it dramatically reduces them, for whatever reason. That’s not great news for Fedde, who sports a mediocre 21.5% strikeout rate. It doesn’t seem like he’s due for any improvement either, as his SwStk% sits at just 9.1% and CSW is a meh 25%.

We next move on to the summary factors where we see Busch a bit worse or tied across the board. It appears that the difference in hit factors is mostly offset by the difference in home run factors, so the parks overall aren’t significantly different.

So really, the park switch itself shouldn’t impact Fedde dramatically, perhaps slightly changing the shape of his performance. Of course, he should get some better run support, as he’s departing the team in last in wOBA and runs scored for a team closer to the middle of the pack. This is far from the best team switch, but if I were a Fedde owner, I would view this as a positive.

Let’s now move on to Pham, who also joins the Cardinals, but this time we’ll be looking at just the right-handed hitter park factors.

After signing late this season and first debuting with the White Sox in late April, Pham has performed as expected, in line with his seasons since 2021. It doesn’t make him a very exciting fantasy asset, but he’s done a bit of everything and has even contributed positive value in batting average and OBP.

Let’s now dive into the park factors to find out how the park switch might affect his performance. First, we find that opposite of the pitcher perspective table, Busch cleanly sweeps GRF in all the non-home run hit type factors, including total hits. The gap between the factors are fairly similar, but with both parks looking slightly better for right-handers than overall, meaning left-handers are a bit worse. Pham’s currently sitting on his highest BABIP since 2018, driven by a 25% line drive rate and a single digit IFFB% as usual for him. I’d bet against the 36-year-old keeping it up, but any regression likely won’t be due to the park switch.

Moving on to the home run factors, we find a similar difference as we did for the overall factors, with Busch suppressing right-handed long balls. Pham’s home run power has disappeared so far this season, as he sits with a lowly 7.7% HR/FB rate, the lowest of his career. His maxEV remains stable, and while his Barrel% is down, he’s been in this range before and still posted a double digit HR/FB rate. His HardHit%, on the other hand, is down at a career low.

Diving into his fly ball splits, his pull/center/opp distribution is normal, but his fly ball Hard% is at the lowest of his career…by far. So he’s simply just not hitting his fly balls hard with the same consistency as he used to. That lack of power might just be an age thing or a weak 271 at-bats. Whatever it is, moving to Busch ain’t going to help him power back up!

Busch increases walks, while reducing strikeouts, both of which are positives for Pham. After posting double digit walk rates for most of his career, he’s dropped off to single digits the last three seasons and he’s now sitting at a career low. It makes sense that pitchers would throw him more strikes when he’s sporting just a .114 ISO. His strikeout rate has been normal, as has his SwStk%, suggesting age hasn’t resulted in a decline in contact ability.

Finally we end up at the summary factors, where we find that GRF is perfectly neutral in every single one of them, while Busch inflates offense. Once again, that really surprised me as I always thought of Busch as one of the better pitcher parks in baseball. Perhaps our perception is totally clouded by home run factors.

Like Fedde gaining more run support, Pham joins a better supporting cast, which should help all his counting stats. This is a clear positive for his value…as long as he actually remains a regular. However, it’s very possible he ends up losing playing time given the superior alternatives the Cardinals have versus the White Sox.