Randy Arozarena & Jazz Chisholm Jr. Find New Homes

Gosh, I love trade deadline time as it’s always fun to see if any players switch to new teams and home parks that might dramatically affect their results. Like a hitter departing T-Mobile Park, the Mariners home, for Coors Field to join the Rockies. Or vice versa. Of course, with only about two more months of games left to play, small sample size randomness is likely going to overshadow any effects a change in park might have. That said, it’s still worth reviewing the factors for team switchers, as it could affect rest of season projections.

The first big name, at least in fantasy circles, traded recently was Randy Arozarena, as the Mariners acquired him last Friday. Arozarena has had a down year offensively, as his wOBA sits at just .315, but with nearly all his metrics in line with past years, it’s entirely driven by a career low BABIP of just .251. Let’s consult the park factors to learn how the move to Seattle might affect his results.

WOW! This is not a clean sweep I expected to see. The thing is, I know that T-Mobile is pitcher friendly. However, I know that Tropicana is as well, so I figured the parks would alternate between more and less pitcher friendly. Instead, aside from one tie, Tropicana wins across the board in hitter friendliness, despite not even being hitter friendly!

Let’s start at the beginning with the hits and hit type factors. As already noted, it’s a clean sweep for Tropicana. The park actually reduces both singles and doubles, but T-Mobile has done so even more dramatically. Arozarena has actually posted a higher BABIP on the road than at home, and that matches up with the Tropicana park factors. So unfortunately, the move to an even more BABIP-reducing home park isn’t going to help his BABIP rebound. However, it might still happen anyway just because he’s proven better than this historically. He’ll need to start hitting a higher rate of line drives though, as that rate currently sits at a career worst.

I would never have guessed that both of these parks have actually slightly inflated right-handed home runs. I thought for sure the parks suppressed them. Once again, we see both parks have similar directional effects, but T-Mobile is simply worse for hitters. Arozarena has posted a higher HR/FB rate at home throughout his career, so the park move won’t favor him here either.

Skipping along to the walk and strikeout factors, the walk factors are identical. Both parks suppress them. Interestingly, Arozarena has been a more willing walker at home, which means the home park advantage has more than offset the weaker environment driving that low factor.

On the strikeout side, we see a massive difference. While both parks inflate them, T-Mobile does so drastically more. That ain’t good! So Arozarena is going to a park with essentially a lower BABIP factor, plus one that increases strikeouts. Talk about bad news for your batting average!

Since the walk rate factors are the same, you see now the difference coming out in the OBP factors. Both parks suppress OBP, but T-Mobile does so more. Not a good thing for the Mariners new second slot hitter.

Finally, we find a slew of summary type factors. We all know what R, or runs scored, means, while BACON is batting average on contact and wOBACon is wOBA on contact. All these factors favor Tropicana. We find the final Park Factor for T-Mobile of 92, which is actually the worst in baseball for right-handed hitters. So Arozarena went from a slight pitcher friendly park to the most pitcher friendly park in baseball.

As an Arozarena owner in my local league, I’m just hoping he’ll boost an offense that I’ve become tired of watching provide little run support for my Mariners starters. Also as an Arozarena owner, the park switch is a negative across the board, but anything could happen over just a two-month span that it’s not something to panic over.

On Sunday, the Yankees made a splash by acquiring 26-year-old Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins, who are seemingly always in firesale mode. Chisholm Jr. has enjoyed a pretty standard year for him, though his power has been down. On the positive side, his walk rate has jumped, while his strikeout rate has improved, both marks currently representing career bests. Let’s jump into the park factors.

Well this is quite the shock! Ask anyone how Yankee Stadium plays for left-handed hitters and their eyes might bulge, because all we think about is the short porch in right field and the home run haven it creates. But offense isn’t all about home runs!

Look at that hit and those hit type factors for LoanDepot! Every single one of them is positive, which is difficult to achieve. Yankee is significantly worse for total hits, including both singles and doubles, which affect BABIP most because they are most common. Chisholm Jr. has posted a .318 career BABIP at home, versus a .299 mark on the road. That’s a pretty sizeable gap, so I would guess there’s some park factors in there, above and beyond the standard “players tend to perform better at home”.

That triples factor difference is crazy! They don’t matter all that much, but Chisholm Jr. has hit 11 triples at home, versus just four on the road. He has four already this year, but given the Yankee park factor, he might not hit another.

On to the home run factor, which is what we’ve been eager to compare. Sure enough, Yankee has been fantastic for left-handed home runs, though only ranks fourth in baseball in park factor. On the other hand, LoanDepot has been pretty neutral, ranking right in the middle at 15th. With a consistent double digit Barrel% and league average fly ball pull rate, he could enjoy a nice uptick in HR/FB rate. At the very least, the move should help his mark rebound, as it’s sitting well below what he’s posted during his last three seasons.

Did you have any idea that Yankee inflates walks?! I did not. Compared to LoanDepot, that’s a big swing. He has still walked at a higher rate at home, though, despite the low park factor. On the strikeout side, Yankee inflates them, while LoanDepot was close to neutral. So, more walks and more strikeouts in New York, apparently.

Finally, we get to the summary factors. Because of the lower hit factor, Yankee sports a pitcher friendly OBP factor, which isn’t great for a guy who has struggled to hit line drives since last season. Perhaps shockingly, even despite Yankee having such a home run advantage, it’s actually pitcher friendly overall for left-handed hitters, while LoanDepot was marginally hitter friendly. I never would have guessed that.

So overall, the move is clearly a positive for Chisholm Jr.’s power. But it’s not so much for his batting average or OBP, which could affect his stolen base opportunities. But ignoring the park switch for a second, we have to consider the two teams. He’s departing a team that ranked second to last in wOBA, and that was with him in the lineup. He has now moved to a team that ranks second overall in baseball in wOBA. There aren’t many bigger changes in lineup than that! So whatever he might lose in batting average and OBP, he should more than make up for from increase home run potential, along with more runs scored, runs batted in, and more PAs due to more lineup turnover. The Yankees due rank second to last in steals, though, so it’s anyone’s guess how his running game will be affected.