Archive for Streaming Two-Starters

4/15/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB

Leading Off:

• Jackie Robinson Day

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play (12:00)

• Jon Gray to DL w/toe
• Jake Odorizzi to DL w/hammy
• Marcus Semien sore right wrist (30:30)

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Now we’re off and running with the second week of #2xSP, and after an uneven but mostly good second week, we think we have some pretty good pitchers to give a look to as Week 2 gets underway.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 1):

0-1 record
2.93 ERA
8.2 K/9
1.3 K/BB
1.63 WHIP
2 quality starts

Brandon Finnegan (two innings, five walks) kind of blew up our rates, but Jerad Eickhoff and Dylan Bundy managed to give us a stretch of quality starts that only Meat Loaf could appreciate. This week, we have some familiar names who are a bit off the radar for some reason or another. Give ‘em a look.

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Lance Lynn – 21.6% ESPN – v. PIT (67), @MIL (86)

The good thing from Lynn is that he’s run his pitch count up and around 100 for each of his first two starts after returning from Tommy John surgery which cost him all of the 2016 season. The bad thing is that he’s only managed 10.1 innings to show for it, with six earned runs (5.23 ERA), an 8-5 K/BB ratio and a WHIP of 1.45. On the positive side, he’s allowed a batting average of just .238 and is pretty much at his career groundball rate (44.1 percent). After allowing three home runs last time out I could see being gunshy about throwing him out there, but I’m taking a shot with a couple of weak inter-divisional offenses coming up on this slate. Sure, there’s a chance each of them turns it around just in time for Lynn to come to town, but I’ll take that gamble. When Lynn is right, he’s good for strikeouts, grounders and most importantly, wins/quality starts. Read the rest of this entry »

4/8/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18! 

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB

Leading Off:

• How’d those Charlotte Knights look?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Collin McHugh shutdown for 6 weeks
  • Joe Musgrove 34% Y!, 18% E, 54% C
• Rich Hill to DL w/blister
  • Alex Wood at CHC, v. ARI 3% Y!, 2% E, 20% C

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Hey, we’re back for another season of #2xSP! As you may already know, we’ll try gear this article up for Thursday afternoons during the season. It’s a two-way street, so if you see something you’d like to have changed or something that should be altered, let me know and I’m willing to listen!

Here’s how we finished last season:

46-46 record
3.90 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.32 WHIP
61 quality starts

That’s not too bad considering we do below 50 percent ownership, no? If you want us to go lower, we can consider that as well. Pardon the brevity this weekend — we have a baby shower tomorrow and I’m in crazy prep mode!

Here are this week’s recs (usually with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses, but not this week since the season just started):

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 45.2% ESPN – v. NYM, @WAS

He just sneaks in under the wire in terms of ownership, and is coming off falling on the short side of a duel with our second guy this week. Eickhoff does pretty much everything well but not excellently, though the penchant for allowing home runs is a little concerning. Still, solid strikeout rate, no walks and at least so far this year it looks like he might try keep the ball on the ground a bit. Give him a spin! Read the rest of this entry »

In the middle to late rounds of a draft, pitchers seem to blend together. Picking between two similar pitchers can be difficult. To help with these decisions, I have created a simple cheat sheet to determine which pitcher has an easier path to success based on several outside factors like schedule strength and bullpen quality.

The chart is simple. I went through each factor which may influence a pitcher’s prediction in which they have no control over. I collected projections on each metric and then found the z-score for each value. Greater than 0 is good, less than zero is bad. Then for each team, I added up the z-scores for a final overall value.

The cheat chart is not perfect. It’s to be used as a guide. For example, if a pitcher is a heavy groundball pitcher, the user may not want to add the team’s outfield defense and home park home run factor. A different user may have the perfect projection set except for bullpen and defense. They can ignore the rest of the information. Additionally, a user may want to create their own category weightings. Again, this is just a guide.

To start with, here are the categories and the where I got the values.

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First of all I want to say thanks for a really great season. Without you folks reading, there’d  be no reason for #2xSP. I appreciate the “thanks” and “you helped me win a title” as much as the poking and prodding to make this a better column, and me a better writer.

So from the depths of my heart, this is a big THANK YOU.

With that said, if you have any ideas on how to make this column more useful, I’m all ears. We’ve stuck with 50% ownership as the cutoff here for a while, but we did adapt for Thursday postings and added quality starts to go with wins to help accommodate people as best we are able. If you have more ideas, hit us in the comments section.

Here’s how we finished the season:

• 46-46 record
• 3.90 ERA
• 8.2 K/9
• 2.9 K/BB
• 1.32 WHIP
• 61 quality starts

Out of 23 weeks:

• Seven ERA marks at/under 3.00 (30.4%)
• Thirteen ERA marks at/under 4.00 (56.6%)
• Eighteen weeks with at least three quality starts (78.3%)

At the risk of being unnecessarily brief, here’s a link to this year’s spreadsheet, and let’s continue the discussion in the comments below!

Congratulations on playing meaningful (fake) baseball this late into the season! At this point, your nerves, eyes, and pitching staff are shot, and you’re plugging leaks with sieves. Or maybe I’m just projecting.

Either way, maybe you’ll find this guide to the rest of the week’s streamers useful. If you’re in a redraft roto, I suggest using up your innings by Friday. The best prospect pitchers probably don’t have the innings to step in and pitch five or six on the weekend, the veterans will get some rest, and you’ll be left with some unsavory matchups, in large part, if you wait for Saturday and Sunday to blow out the rest of your innings.

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Alright, we’re back for the final edition of #2xSP for this season. Like most years, we’ve had some ups and downs, but it’s been markedly better than last year, and I’m not only pleased with how season four went with regards to season three, but I’m also excited for next year.

If you have some ideas to implement for next season, feel free to leave them in the comments section.

Here’s what we’re working with so far this season:

44-45 record
3.93 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Chad Kuhl – 12.7% ESPN – v. CHC (106), @STL (104)

I don’t love the matchups, but Kuhl has been pretty solid this season and I didn’t love a lot of the other pitchers going on Monday and Tuesday. This isn’t the first time Kuhl has faced the Cubs and Cardinals in succession, as he did so between two starts on Aug. 30 and Sept. 5. He pitched fine against the Cubs — three earned in five innings — but the Cardinals tousled him up a bit for three earned runs in just two innings. Still, his success this season hasn’t been over that small of a sampling. Over his last nine starts, he’s got a 3.10 ERA, .641 OPS against (.218 BAA) and solid 37-12 K/BB ratio in 49.1 innings. He gets plenty of grounders (46.3 percent), doesn’t walk too many batters (2.4 BB/9) and has a slider with a 17.8 percent whiff rate. Maybe it’s the foundation of something? Read the rest of this entry »

Most of you that are still paying attention are scanning the pitching wire daily, looking for any help in your last matchup, your last two weeks of life in your roto league. So why make things complicated. Here’s a daily matchup / streaming calendar that just might help. Every day over the rest of the work week, with a shallow, mixed, and deep league option I like.

Good luck!

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Here we are, for the penultimate edition of #2xSP this year. We’ve had a markedly better year than last, and the goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00 — after last week, woof — with a continued push for maybe 8.5 K/9 (high goal, but why not reach for the stars?) and hopefully lowering that WHIP under 1.30.

Here’s what we’re working with so far:

43-43 record
3.94 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP A.J. Cole – 13.3% ESPN – @MIA (93), @PIT (98)

It’s hard to really know what matters in samples as small as what Cole has put forth. What we do know for sure if this is a couple of pretty solid matchups, though going on the road can be a daunting task for any young pitcher. His first two starts on the road this year were solid — @BAL, @NYM — where he’s combined for a 3.46 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and an OPS against of just .640. Again, that’s just two starts, but those are solid numbers. Also solid is that Cole has induced double-digit swinging strike numbers in four of five starts, with the lone time he didn’t being eight in a season-low 78 pitches against the Phillies in his second-to-last start. That seems to back up the fact that he’s fanned more than a batter per inning — 31 in 28.2 innings — which should help us in the K/9 department. Now, let’s just hope for a couple quality starts.

UPDATE: We’re going with Clayton Richard instead of Cole, who will likely be bumped by the return of Joe Ross. The Padres face the Diamondbacks (95) and Giants (98) this week. Richard has a 1.70  ERA in eight appearances (six starts) with the Padres, with a 7.3 K/9 mark and a couple decent matchups at home this week.

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