The Change: Mid-Week Pitching Streamers

Most of you that are still paying attention are scanning the pitching wire daily, looking for any help in your last matchup, your last two weeks of life in your roto league. So why make things complicated. Here’s a daily matchup / streaming calendar that just might help. Every day over the rest of the work week, with a shallow, mixed, and deep league option I like.

Good luck!

Wednesday
Matt Moore (58% owned) @LAD
There are a few good shallow options on Wednesday, including Collin McHugh at Oakland, and Jerad Eickhoff at home against the White Sox. But Eickhoff gets Sale, and Oakland is in the American League and has been playing better. I wouldn’t expect another no-hitter, but the Dodgers haven’t been good against lefties, and since Moore added the cutter, he’s been good. Take the Colorado start out — he lives with his curve, and he’s not the kind of guy you’d have to start in Colorado — and he’s had 29 strikeouts and nine walks (five earned runs) in 26 innings since he’s added the cutter, which has helped with weak contact and command. I’ll take that.

Anibal Sanchez (24% owned) @MIN
The Twins aren’t perhaps as much of a pushover as you’d expect, with basically league-average offense since the second half started. But it’s still a good place to suppress lefty homers, and that’s really important for Sanchez. Since he was re-installed in the rotation in July, he’s had good strikeout and walk totals (8.1 and 1.8 per nine, respectively) but poor home run totals (1.4 per nine). The last start against the Twins was more of the same, with seven strikeouts and two walks in four innings… but two home runs and six earned runs. Obviously there’s some risk here, but at this level of ownership, there are not a lot of options.

Luis Perdomo (4% owned) vsARI
Did you know this guy has a great sinker? Only 18 regularly-thrown sinkers (minimum 300 thrown) are harder than Perdomo’s 94.6 mph average, and here are the starters that have more drop among those 18: Carlos Martinez and Jeff Samardzija. You can even add the relievers (Sam Dyson and Blake Treinen) and see that this is a super sinker. Since Perdomo has gone to the sinker more often (July), he’s had a 3.86 ERA and a 62% ground ball rate. Since he’s started throwing his curveball much more (mid-August), he’s had a 3.10 ERA, 60% ground ball rate, and nearly six strikeouts per nine. It’s basically the Ivan Nova package, except with more velocity, a better home park, and a cheaper price.

Thursday
Seth Lugo (51% owned) vsPHI
The worst offense in the National League at home is a good place to start. Add in the highest spin rate curve ball ever, and you’re cooking. Yeah, sure, the changeup isn’t great, but he doesn’t throw it a ton and it has some value as a surprise pitch. The slider is just decent, too. But the high-spin fastball and curve combo is as proven as you can get. I’d expect more strikeouts as the balls in play normalize closer to league average.

Blake Snell (22% owned) vsNYY
The wild young lefty has had a bad stretch the last two times out, but he also owns a batting average on balls in play near .500 in those two games. Nine strikeouts in seven innings is fine, but the five walks is a bit too near his (bad) seasonal average to get super excited. Again, this is a soft spot in the daily schedule, but there’s also a reason to think he can be better. For a while, he was stealing strikes with the new slider, but batters have begun to swing at it. Perhaps he can go back to throwing the curve (it’s been down under 10% usage recently) if they are keying in on the slider. The reason to like him and pick him up for this start is that he has three really good secondary pitches, perhaps even plus for all three, and a high-velo fastball. He could put up zeroes on any given night.

Brock Stewart (1% owned) vsCOL
I’ll send a bit of love to Jose Urena (8% owned) at home against Atlanta, but I don’t really love his stuff. Well, I mean I like his high-velo sinker, it’s got good movement, but the change is meh, and the breaking balls don’t get enough whiffs to make him much more than a low-rent Luis Perdomo, which is saying something. Much more attractive to me is Brock Stewart, who added velocity to help fill out a package that already boasted plus command and secondary stuff. Colorado, the day after a game at home, against a guy that has a plus slider and a good changeup? Sign me up.

Friday
Jeremy Hellickson (51% owned) vsNYM
I like Jameson Taillon (51% owned) at home against Washington, but the changeup is still bad, and slowly bringing back the four-seam might not be enough against those two big lefties in the Nationals lineup. I think Trevor Bauer (62% owned) at home against the White Sox is also a great play, considering that he’s highly motivated for a few different reasons, and even his most recent blowups haven’t come with terrible walk totals. I know that the Mets have been scoring runs a bit more, but it’s always nice to pitch at home against a National League average offense. And mostly I like the chaos that Hellickson’s pitch mix has become. By bringing in a sinker with the cutter, he now has four pitches he can throw at any time.

Jon Gray (36% owned) @LAD
Friday’s a great day for streaming, great enough to think about as early as Wednesday. Three shallow league options, and then even in mixed leagues you have Gray and James Paxton (25% owned), who goes to Minnesota. It’s hard to pick between the two, and I don’t want to pick Gray just because he struck out SIXTEEN against ZERO walks in his last game out, but it’s hard to ignore that data point. Especially since it was the first time this season that he’s thrown the curve as much as his awesome slider. That suggests he’s really found confidence in his third pitch, and his other two were pretty sexy.

Alex Meyer (1% owned) @HOU
Well, it’s a good day for most leagues. The deepest leagues… well you get a guy that’s mostly just fastball/curveball with iffy command, going into a hitter’s park with a bad offense behind me. Nice! Still, there’s an element of unfamiliarity to Meyer, and he’s got a great big old curve, and when he throws the change — despite iffy movement and velocity gap — he’s had good results. Sure, Kyle Gibson at home (10% owned) is okay, but he’s up against Paxton. Shelby Miller in Baltimore? Mat Latos in Pittsburgh? Woof. Albert Suarez (2% owned, at home against the Padres) is safer, but more boring, but Meyer is the home run pick. Anything could happen.

Hopefully the good stuff will happen for you.