With the holiday weekend, Jason and I took the week off from the podcast. I didn’t want to leave you empty-handed, though, so here’s a little guide to this week’s pitching waiver wire.
TWO-START ARMS
Shallow (ranked):
Woof. I don’t know what has happened. I’ve taken a real beating over the last couple weeks, and I apologize for anyone who has taken my advice. I’ll continue to write this column in vain, but completely understand if people don’t trust me again for a long, long time. Anyway, so here goes:
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 10)
17-16 record
5.10 ERA
7.6 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.57 WHIP
17 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
RHP Jason Hammel – 8.7% ESPN – v. BOS (98), v. TOR (92)
Surely neither his team’s nor his season have been much to write home about — 5.05 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.40 FIP — but Hammel has been better of late, and it’s not like he hasn’t had stretches where he was really, really good recently. That includes the month of June, where over the 20.1 innings he’s thrown this month, he’s posted a 2.21 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just one walk in three starts. Of course, that includes a start against the woeful Giants last time out, but he did also make solid starts against the Indians and Astros. Back up to his last five starts — since a rough outing against the Yankees on May 16 at home — and Hammel still has a 3.52 ERA and 24-7 K/BB ratio in 30.2 innings. That’s a string of five pretty good starts, or about 15 percent of a season. We’ll give him a spin here in a couple interesting matchups.
LHP Francisco Liriano – 10.5% ESPN – @TEX (89), @KC (82)
I understand being scared to death to trust Liriano — the literal definition of a human time bomb — but these two matchups were too good for me to ignore. If you don’t like it, there are a couple names at the bottom of this post to consider otherwise. It’s not like Liriano has been all bad this season, as he’s fanning a batter per inning. If that feels like a bit of a reach for you, at least he’s been pretty good in June, too: 17 innings, 19-5 K/BB ratio and 3.71 ERA. One thing that might give you pause is that this month, opposing batters are hitting .231/.278/.462 against him. He isn’t giving up much, but when he does, it’s big. He does have a 12 percent swinging strike rate this month, though — so there’s potential for some big strikeout games this upcoming week.
RHP Robert Gsellman – 9.2% ESPN – @LAD (102), @SF (77)
It’s been a rough season, but I’ve always believed in the talent here, and hopefully it can come to roost this week. Since a rough start against th Brewers a month ago sent him to the bullpen, Gsellman has been pretty darn good. In six appearances (four starts) in the meantime, he’s posted a 2.25 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 28 innings (eight walks) and an opponents’ slash line against of .204/.268/.320. I’m especially salivating over the matchup against the Giants, but it’s not like the Dodgers have absolutely obliterated opposing pitchers this year, either. Sure, they have the ability to make life difficult, but it’s not like facing this year’s Yankees. It’s the classic give-to-get scenario either way, because again, I really like his chances against San Fran.
Last two out: Brad Peacock (@OAK, @SEA) and Scott Feldman (v. TB, v. TOR)
6/4/17
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OWNED BUT DO YOU START? (7:20)
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We’re back for another week of #2xSP, and I’ve opted not to include Sean Manaea (v. TOR, @TBR) because even through he’s under our 50% regulation (46.2% ESPN), I still don’t feel like he’d be available in that many leagues. If he is in yours, I would pounce all over that, of course.
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 8):
17-13 record
4.25 ERA
7.8 K/9
2.2 K/BB
1.45 WHIP
16 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
RHP Joe Musgrove – 6.6% ESPN – @KCR (76), v. LAA (92)
Musgrove is expected to come off the disabled list to make this start. If he doesn’t, we’ll default to Jaime Garcia (15.7 percent, v. PHI, v. NYM). If he does, he’s been fairly solid lately — including seven shutout innings against a sturdy O’s offense last time out — with a couple really, really nice matchups this week. The Royals have been dreadful offensively all season, and this is the perfect time to catch the Mike Trout-less Angels, who are also without Cameron Maybin, too.
RHP Dinelson Lamet – 13.8% ESPN – v. ARI (97), v. KCR (76)
We’re gambling here with a guy who has made just two career starts spanning 10 innings, but man have they been good: three earned runs (2.70 ERA), 16-3 K/BB ratio and .211 batting average against. We’d be more skeptical if he hadn’t shut down the Cubs last time out, and these two matchups are pretty solid as well — especially the Royals one. Lamet throws gas (95.4 mph average fastball) and in a very limited sampling, his slider (24.2 percent whiff rate) and changeup (16.1 percent) have been dirty.
RHP Junior Guerra – 17.7% ESPN – v. SF (74), @ARI (97)
Guerra is a layup at this point. He’s somehow still owned in under 20 percent of leagues — of course, the injury plays a huge part in that — but since coming off the disabled list he’s been very good, as he’s at a 1.84 ERA this season with 13 strikeouts and a .151 BAA through 14.2 innings. Like each of the others this week, he’s got one terrific matchup and one that is so-so. He’s basically on the reverse Lamet gamut. We’ll see who handles it better, but my money’s on Guerra, the 32-year-old sophomore. Maybe they’ll both rack up a couple quality starts. Wouldn’t that be nice?
We decided to push the waiver wire pod this weekend for the holiday, but I wanted to write up a little something about pitchers to keep an eye on tonight.
TWO-START ARMS
Shallow:
Moore has been rounding into form a bit over his last four starts with a 3.28 ERA and 21 Ks in 24.7 IP, but he does have a 1.49 WHIP and I might be careful with that Washington start. Hellickson has a 1.7 K:BB and 1.6 HR/9 so I just can’t see starting him anywhere right now. I like Montgomery, but he’s been markedly worse on the road with a 16% K rate and 1.3 K:BB, compared to 27% and 3.4 at home. I’d probably start Tillman if I have him, but I’m not sure I’d seek him out on a waiver wire.
After being stuck in baby purgatory — trust me, I mean that in a good way — the past couple weeks, I’m back with a nine-day old beauty (see below) and a three-man slate this week that I don’t totally love, but think could work due to some matchup stuff.
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 7)
16-10 record
4.10 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.43 WHIP
14 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
LHP Matt Moore – 31.8% ESPN – v. WAS (113), @PHI (90)
It’s hasn’t been a great season for Matty Mo — 5.28 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 1.53 WHIP — but here’s what we’re tapping into this week. The tougher of the two matchups for the 27-year-old lefty is at home against the Nationals. Moore’s splits carry about the biggest discrepancy you could imagine, as he’s got a 2.57 ERA at home and a 1.14 WHIP, while on the road he’s got a 7.80 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Facing the Phillies at home should be a much easier matchup that can cushion that road ERA, but don’t be surprised if he holds down the Nationals while still allowing a good day to Bryce Harper. Somehow, lefties have hit the lefty hard this season: .404/.469/.825.
RHP Mike Clevinger – 24.1% ESPN – v. OAK (103), @KCR (75)
The numbers don’t all exactly match up, but Clevinger has been really good through four appearances for the Indians this season. He’s got a 1.56 ERA (2.75 FIP), and has a 0.98 WHIP despite walking 11 batters through 17.1 innings. You can pretty easily guess why; he’s allowed just a .111/.262/.130 line to the 65 batters he’s faced in the big leagues so far this season. It can be hard to recommend a guy with command issues or just 70 big league innings, but he’s coming off shutting down a really strong Astros offense last time out: seven innings, two hits, no runs, eight strikeouts and two walks. It’ll be interesting to see how the rotation shakes out when Corey Kluber returns. Could Clevinger push someone like Josh Tomlin or Trevor Bauer out? It doesn’t seem impossible.
LHP Tyler Anderson – 11.3% ESPN – v. SEA (101), @SDP (77)
Similarly to with Moore, I’m leaning on the fact that Anderson has done some good work at home, where his tougher matchup of the two will take place this week. In his parts of two seasons in the majors, Anderson has posted a 3.50 ERA in home starts and a 5.52 mark on the road. The Mariners might be a fairly tough matchup, but again I’ll gamble on those splits along with the fact that, when right, Anderson is a groundball kind of guy with good strikeout and walk rates. He’s also been really good in May (.696 OPS against, 3.06 ERA, 25 strikeouts in 17.2 innings) after an awful April (7.71 ERA, 1.005 OPS against, 24 strikeouts in 30.1 innings).
We’re 40 weeks plus two days on Warne baby watch — Harper Elizabeth was due Wednesday — so I’m pumping out as much #content as possible. Last week we ended up getting tied up a bit so I had to share my recs on my twitter account — follow me @Brandon_Warne, if you wish — and if needed, I’ll be doing that next week under the hashtag #2xSP. Baby will be induced Tuesday night into Wednesday morning if she isn’t here yet, so that might tie us up next time around. So just keep that in mind, thanks!
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 5)
11-5 record
3.55 ERA
7.7 K/9
1.9 K/BB
1.39 WHIP
10 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
RHP Zack Wheeler – 18.4% ESPN – @ARI (93), v. LAA (89)
I’ve been a big Wheeler guy for awhile now, and I love the matchups this week. You can sort of see the outline of a pitcher on the right track, too. He’s fanning 8.1 batters per nine and inducing grounders at a 55.6 percent rate. As a result, his 4.18 ERA is backed by a 3.85 xFIP and 4.23 FIP. In other words, he’s been decent and I think there’s room to improve. The strand rate should go up and help mitigate the BABIP drop, and in the meantime I’m always looking to gamble on talent rather than a so-so pitcher with easy matchups. I don’t know, maybe the baby delirium has me talking out of both sides of my mouth, but I like Wheeler this week. Who’d have thought he’d be one of the last men standing in this rotation?
RHP Brandon McCarthy – 38.4% ESPN – @SFG (71), v. MIA (92)
There are obvious health risks here, but when healthy, McCarthy is damn solid. Of course, we haven’t seen that since 2014. Still, I’ll take the risk this week with a couple nice matchups. When on the mound this season (29 innings), McCarthy has been solid, with a 3.10 ERA (3.57 FIP), 7.8 K/9 and a good walk rate (2.8 BB/9). He’s kept the ball in the yard (for the most part) and on the ground — at least better than his recent work had indicated. Also, in a small sample size he’s throwing harder this year (93.1 mph versus a career average of 90.9). What do you think?
RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 31.4% ESPN – @TEX (87), @PIT (83)
Eickhoff is off to a bit of a rocky start, but let’s be honest — he wouldn’t be available if that weren’t the case. Eickhoff was quietly very solid for the Phillies last year (3.65 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9) and has a couple of accommodating matchups this week. He’s pitched a bit better (4.11 FIP) than his ERA (4.76) would indicate, and honestly besides that, I’m not sure what else to say. Good pitcher, bad stretch and good matchups. Let’s play!
We’re back at it after an up-and-down start to Week 3, but I think we have a fairly good trio — including oddly enough, a holdover — heading into Week 4. Let’s dive right in.
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 3):
5-4 record
3.18 ERA
8.7 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.35 WHIP
7 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
LHP Hector Santiago – 23.9% ESPN – v. OAK (106), v. BOS (99)
Santiago’s one of those guys who won’t wow you on the mound, but you look up in the fifth and you’re down 4-2 and aren’t sure how he’s kept you at bay. He works high in the zone with a low-90s fastball and doesn’t have especially good control, but just battles with every pitch and executes when he needs to. He’s been a consistent FIP beater for his entire career, which makes it sort of crazy that he was traded for Ricky Nolasco — among others — considering the latter does the exact opposite. What stands out for Santiago this year — in addition to improved walk rates — is that he’s changed his changeup grip and it appears to be working wonders. It has a little less fade than his screwball — which he still throws — and that allows him simply another look with which to attack batters. So far, that changeup has a 14 percent whiff rate this season — well above the 9.6 percent mark he’s had on it over his career.
RHP Robert Gsellman – 14.1% ESPN – @ATL (88), v. MIA (93)
I know the Braves pummeled him last time out — Kurt Suzuki? C’mon man! — but I’ll always gamble on the talent, and I love Gsellman in that respect. He’s still striking out a batter per inning and putting the ball on the ground (57.1 percent), and even despite the fact that he’s facing the Braves for a second time in a row, I think he can beat up on both of these teams. If you like someone else better that’s fine, but I’ll always, always gamble on the talent in these things.
LHP Daniel Norris – 11.9% ESPN – v. CLE (112), @OAK (106)
I really liked Norris last year — 9.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.38 ERA — and think he’s bound to round into form here eventually. This is another “gamble on the talent” kind of guy, with a higher groundball rate and lower home run rate than last year. To me, those things are tougher to correct than walk and strikeout rates, where he’s faltering compared to last season. His velo is up and he’s throwing more sliders….I think the strikeouts are just around the corner.
4/22/17
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
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Sorry for being so late on this one friends. I had Twins coverage the last two days that pushed into my time. Also, this was one of my least favorite weeks in what’s now I think four years of doing this. A limited slate on Monday and a rather ugly one on Tuesday has left me with some options I don’t particularly love, but I do hope through a mix of matchups and other things we have a good one here.
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 2):
2-1 record
2.40 ERA
8.7 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.31 WHIP
5 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
LHP Wei-Yin Chen – 4.7% ESPN – @PHI (96), v. PIT (81) Read the rest of this entry »