Each year, before the season, I try to run a set of projected standings for my leagues. It’s not super difficult, though you do have to set aside probably about one hour per league to set it up. But once you have these projections, they can be extremely useful in figuring out your strengths and weaknesses, and giving yourself a realistic outlook for your team.

The specifics below are based on ottoneu, but the theory can be applied to any format.
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I’m always torn when setting a draft date for a fantasy league, particularly a redraft one. Most people I play with generally want the draft to be as close to the start of the regular season as possible, which makes sense – the longer you wait, the more information becomes available, and the more certainty players have, especially when it comes to playing-time estimates.

Depending on your level of risk-seeking, the depth of the league, and your confidence in finding early-season waiver-wire sleepers, an earlier draft might be your preference. It’s certainly mine. In those cases, I’m comfortable using picks in the later rounds on sleepers who may or may not make a team, trusting that if they wind up optioned to the minor leagues (or designated for assignment, as it were), I’ll be able to plug someone in out of the free-agent bin comparable to a “floor” pick I could have otherwise used that selection on.

The longer you wait to do your draft, the less opportunity there is to take those playing-time-uncertain fliers. Either those players will be deemed to be without a job, or others will have grown wise to their hold on a job, bidding the price up.

My favorite example to illustrate the impact of draft timing this year is Trea Turner, the No. 2 prospect of the potential NL East-champion Washington Nationals.
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Co-ownership. In my 10 years of fantasy experience, it was something I’d never tried before, nor had I given it much thought. It always seemed like a chore, and (given that I tend to have strong opinions) I assumed that if I ever did co-own a team I would end up “running” the squad, while my counterpart would be left to sit on his hands. It just didn’t seem like much fun – for me or my counterpart – or like an experience that would be any different from Ottoneu leagues I had already participated in.

Until recently.

Fellow Rotographs contributor Trey Baughn and myself were paired up in a newly formed Ottoneu league. Neither of us are experts on the topic of co-ownership, but I wanted to talk through several observations we have quickly realized in our month long trial run.

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Another AL-LABR draft is the books, and after finishing top half in 2014, and then at the very bottom in 2015, I figured I should change my strategy a bit going into this year’s draft. In some ways, I built the same team I always do for the League of Alternate Baseball Reality — I hate dollar players, and hate spending for the most expensive players, and I dive for the middle — but my preparation was different. You can’t completely change your stripes, in the end. You can only hope to tweak em.

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Over the years, I have written a lot about the concept of position scarcity. In fact, a quick Google search yields four such articles just on the front page (I wonder how many, if any, are hiding on page 2 and beyond!):

The Position Scarcity Post To End All Position Scarcity Posts, March 2011 (oops, guess this article didn’t actually end all position scarcity posts!)
What is Position Scarcity, Really?, January 2012
What is Position Scarcity, Continued, January 2012
On Best Player Available vs. Position Scarcity, January 2015

This time I’ll take a different avenue to discuss the concept. My inspiration was an article posted last week by our friend Rudy Gamble over at Razzball.com. It was titled Debunking Position Scarcity In Mixed League Fantasy Baseball, and in it, Rudy shared his reasons why he believed that position scarcity was essentially a myth in mixed leagues.

Rudy and I have discussed position scarcity a lot over the years and the wonderful thing is that although it appears that we disagree, we both use math and data to support our positions. So it’s a constructive back and forth that allows both us and our readers to learn. After all, we still don’t have a 100% perfect valuation system, so we don’t know for sure who’s even right!

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Over the weekend, I had my first normal(ish) keeper deadline. The roster was packed with useful players who could be kept right around cost. It made for quite the challenge deciding on cuts and auction strategy.

Here’s the background – 12-team 5×5 roto (OPS), standard deep rosters (2 C, 5 OF, MI, CI), $310 auction budget, unlimited keepers at previous auction price +$7. And here are my various keep/cuts.

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In the real world of baseball, the Orioles recently agreed to terms with Yovani Gallardo on a $35 million contract. Then they ran their classic bait-and-switch physical, cried “shoulder,” and leveraged Gallardo down to a $22 million guarantee. This is not the first time the O’s have killed a player’s leverage. Usually they go on to sign with another team for much less money.

You’d be hard pressed to find any 30-year-old pitcher without some kind of radar blip in their shoulder or elbow. In his prime, Gallardo threw 93 mph. This was back when 93 mph rated among the hardest throwing starting pitchers. Now he throws 90. There’s a pretty decent chance that whatever’s wrong with his shoulder is already assimilated into his game. Furthermore, given the contracts signed by Ian Kennedy and Mike Leake, decline appeared to already be priced into the original $35 million figure.

Gallardo and his agent should have anticipated the Orioles. They should have laid groundwork to co-opt the false leverage gained by the Orioles with the physical. Before any figures are exchanged, it’s the agents job to say, “we know you’re going find something when you run your physical. Let me be clear, we aren’t renegotiating.”

That statement doesn’t mean what it says. Here’s the sub-text. If you, the Orioles, find something in my client’s physical, we’ll budge. A little. Like a very tiny bit. Maybe we’ll accept a small percentage of the contract as very easy to trigger incentives. It depends what it is too.

Put another way, do you think Scott Boras would have taken a $13MM reduction in guaranteed pay? Doubtful.

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The worst kept secret in the fantasy sports industry is that the people in it are amazing. A little over a year ago, with the help of some friends (with fantasy benefits), I entered the industry with a silly little podcast, a website, and no real expectations that it would ever turn into anything more than a hobby. I was pleasantly surprised to find out how helpful and encouraging the majority of the fantasy industry is. No one ever said no to an appearance. I was given a ton of advice on what works and what doesn’t in the industry. You read what these people write and listen to what they have to say, but what you don’t realize is that they are just as cool in real life as they appear to be from the outside. Read the rest of this entry »

With drafts fast approaching, it’s time to start talking auction strategies. Sometime soon, I’ll offer advice on nominations and common early bidding patterns. Today, let’s begin with the end of the draft.

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The LABR Mixed draft went off last night (or will begin in two hours as I being to type this), and I am hoping not to once again have to explain why I selected Billy Hamilton in the second round. Anyhow, I wanted to share an important piece of draft preparation that I have never read as being advised, but I do perform heading into every snake draft.

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