Potential Lineup Gems – American League

You have no doubt heard the phrase “playing time is currency” at some point in the last couple of years. I didn’t make it up and I don’t know who did, but it was probably Todd Zola or Ron Shandler because they have all the best catchphrases for fantasy baseball. I use it all the time, though, because it’s true and good to remember. It’s particularly pertinent in this era when PED use is less rampant (not eradicated, but certainly down).

To my mind, staying on the field was biggest advantage to be had by using. Consider that from 1996-2008, we saw an average of about six guys per year play all 162 games, but in the seven years since, that average has plummeted to just two per year with a high of four (2012, 2013, and 2014). Teams aren’t shy about using the disabled list these days, either, so just being in the lineup is a boon for a player, especially in deep leagues.

I think we’ve long known how important it is to roster guys who bat high in the order, but the DFS era has put a fine point on that factor. Combined with the drop in guys logging 162 games, it’s more beneficial than ever to get guys who regularly slot in those top four spots of a lineup – even a modest-to-bad lineup. Of course, those are usually the best guys in the lineup and as such they go in the first several rounds. However, you can still find guys going late in drafts who are slated to bat high in their order. These can be draft day gems just by virtue of that abundant playing time high in an order even if they don’t show any tangible skills growth to justify their slotting. Here are 15 American Leaguers projected (by Roster Resource) to bat in the top four of lineups while going after pick 200 in NFBC drafts:

LEADOFF

Alcides Escobar [KC, 272nd pick overall] – Had to include him because he meets the criteria, but we know what he is at this point and it’s not all that special. He only had 17 stolen bases in 2015, but if he gets back up the 28 he averaged from 2011-14, then he’s back to being a solid MI option for relatively cheap speed. I think the other two have more upside despite being older.

Nori Aoki [SEA, 323rd] – It’s hard to get batting average late in a draft so to find his .287 career average (which has lived in a tight .285-.288 band during his 4-year MLB career) at this late stage is a great way to balance some potential AVG sinkholes you might’ve taken earlier to address another need (likely power). The Mariners won’t necessarily be an elite offense, but they should be able to improve on last year’s 4.05 runs/game that landed 21st in the league.

Yunel Escobar [LAA, 370th] – He’s definitely a BABIP-dependent bat as his best seasons have all come with a mark north of .315, including last year’s career-high .347 that spurred a .314 AVG with the Nationals. The Angels are a flawed club, but a high-contact bat like Escobar could sneak his way into a .285/90-run season batting ahead of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols (well, and Daniel Nava at 2, but we’ll get to him in a second…)

SECOND

Brett Lawrie [CWS, 214th] – Some of you are no doubt done with Lawrie and I get it, but I’m giving him one more shot. New park, lineup, and spot all favor him and he popped 16 HR with 60 RBI and 64 R in Oakland last year while primarily batting 6th and 7th (71% of his PA). Batting in front of Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier with Adam Eaton on base ahead of him 36% of the time could finally push the 26-year old toward the breakout we’ve been waiting on for four years now.

Ketel Marte [SEA, 215th] – I’m not a huge Marte guy, but maybe I’m wrong (lol at me being wrong*) and the 10% BB% is legit which would help him maintain an OBP north of .340 ahead of the Cano-Cruz-Seager heart of the lineup and could yield a huge runs scored total as a mid-teens round shortstop. But even if he’s more of a .310 OBP guy, the fact that he’s second in the order will still put him in line to score more than his fair share of runs in Seattle.

 

*relax, I’m kidding… but I am never wrong, just ask Shane Greene!

Kevin Kiermaier [TB, 274th] – I doubt TB will give him as many chances near the top of the order if he doesn’t improve the OBP, but I think he can make the necessary improvements to parlay that spot into an 80-run season. He had just a .284 OBP in his 195 PA batting first last year, but logged a career .352 OBP in 1649 minor league PA. Kiermaier is a favorite late-round outfielder of mine as a speed-power combo with guaranteed playing time thanks to his elite-level defense in centerfield.

Joe Mauer [MIN, 343rd] – He’s really hurt by his position eligibility because he’s either your 1B or corner infielder (CI) and those are tough spots to barely get double-digit home runs from, but at least he’s a lock to bat high in the order.

Jed Lowrie [OAK, 405th] – His best and only full season came with Oakland back in 2013 and they batted him in the top four for all but 32 of his 662 plate appearances that year so if healthy, he should remain up there again this year. Of course, the “if healthy” is the key as the 32-year old has been in the majors since 2008 and has only eclipsed 600 PA that one time.

Daniel Nava [LAA, 646th] – Eno and I discussed Nava on Wednesday’s podcast and then Jason and I followed-up on Thursday’s podcast since Jason took him in the AL Tout reserve rounds.

THIRD

Josh Reddick [OAK, 215th] – He has been right around 20 HR and 10 SB per 150 games the last four seasons, though the middle two of that quartet fell well shy of 150 at just 114 and 109, respectively. So I imagine the injury risk for the 29-year old is why his price is so depressed, but don’t forget about him out in Oakland.

Carlos Beltran [NYY, 319th] – Beltran’s dirt-cheap cost is related entirely to his being 39 years old and injury-riddled over the latter half of his career, but he still produces when on the field. As a 38 year old last year, he put together a 119 wRC+ in 531 PA and only twice has dipped below 100 since establishing himself in 2001. Both times it was a 96 so he was still tracking right around average even in the down seasons.

FOURTH

Victor Martinez [DET, 268th] – Do you remember where he was going in drafts last year? A whopping 214 picks higher at 54th, or the 4th round. Injuries tanked his season and have left everyone understandably nervous of the 37-year old with two bum knees. Add in that he’s DH-only in most leagues (10 games 1B) and it’s easy to understand why he’s going so late. You can get 2014 out of your mind, there’s virtually no chance that is coming back (but how cool would it be?!), but with the risk built into the price, why not take a shot that he can recapture his pre-2014 level? (.311, 15 HR, 88 RBI per season in 2010-13 with ’12 missed due to injury).

Trevor Plouffe [MIN, 283rd] – The Twins have trusted Plouffe with a run-producing spot each of the last two years and he’s delivered back-to-back 80+ RBI seasons. If you miss out on the top tiers of 3B, just wait on Plouffe and get a useful 20-80 season out of it.

Colby Rasmus [HOU, 305th] – He was more a fifth hitter last year for the Stros and clubbed a career-high 25 HRs. The lineup should be even better this year so even if he falls back to fifth, I don’t think a 25-80 season is out of the question. It’s cheap, bankable coming very late.

Mike Napoli [CLE, 387th] – Nap has never been a full-time player (avg. of 420 PA/season; career-high of 578), but he’s still a big power threat and slated to hit in the middle of the Cleveland lineup. His playing time and batting average deficiencies are more than built into the cost so you can take a shot on a cheap 20+ HRs. He hit 18 last year in his worst season ever by wRC+ (98).