Following a 2020 season in which only 40 starting pitchers reached at least 60 IP, the general worries that starters would be limited this year, have yet to be actualized. Granted, they still have two months to do so but my concerns have at least been tamped down on veterans with track records of high usage. However, pitchers with previously middling maxs are still worrying, particularly as more teams drop out of contention, and young starters still carry the same concerns as they do in the second half of any season.

However, whether looking at veterans or rookies, fantasy managers must try to set expectations for their pitching staff as we head into the fantasy dog days. Even if trusting what management says tends to be an exercise in futility. But you need to at least try to have a handle on who you can depend on the rest of the way, if only to curse their names when they do the opposite.

One if by shutdown, two if by bullpen…The limits are coming! The limits are coming! Read the rest of this entry »

The Engagement Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Patrick Davitt

Strategy Section

FAAB / Waiver Wire / Roster Churn

• Distribution of FAAB dollars throughout the season
  • Does current standing matter?
• Does player aquisition strategy alter in the month of August?
• Injury rates 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019
• Sholud we churn our rosters more or less in the final two months of the season?
• How to decide when to cut a player in the final two months
  • Jacob deGrom case study
  • Other specific player examples

Category Movement

• Categories that are more volatile late in the season (more movement) & categories that are less volatile
  • Why ratio categories are highly volatile

Engagement

• Can you win a league if you are towards the bottom in August?
• Do you have a moral / ethical obligation to play hard until the very end in fatnasy baseball?
  • What if you play in many leagues?
• Is it right to divert time spent away from leagues that you cannot win?
• Is there an ethical difference between neglecting to set a valid lineup vs. foregoing waiver wire pickups?
• Is there an obligation to ensure that your fantasy team reaches the minimum inning requirements?
  • How should a league commissioner interviene if teams are not on pace to reach the IP threshold?
• Creating incentives to increase league engagement down the stretch

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There are many strategies to employ during a fantasy baseball season and this year I’ve been trying a few new ones. The one strategy that has worked out tremendously well for me so far has been based on Jeff Zimmerman’s early-season analysis of xwOBA’s in-season predictive power. I detailed a practical way to apply his findings to waiver claims in shallow leagues. I’ve also decided, though the decision was sort of decided for me, to punt one category. Some of my own early-season research showed that punting one category can be fine as long as you have a few maxed-out category scores. However, one strategy that I’ve never employed is the usage of platoon splits. Two players, acting like one, and being placed in your lineup as if you were a real manager sounds pretty cool. But, I play in a shallow, 10-team, ESPN roto-league and I wanted to see if this strategy can work in such conditions. Here’s a little case study to see how this strategy would have played out for me in 2021 if I had started at the very beginning of the year and stuck with it until now. 

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This is a fun time of year for fantasy prospects. Guys are getting traded left and right, creating conversations about players like Ezequiel Duran who otherwise might have been ignored (0.291% rostered in Ottoneu right now and being auctioned in one league). Those trades are also opening up space for other players to get a shot – might we see Andres Gimenez back in Cleveland soon?

At the same time, the players selected in the draft a few weeks back are starting to sign, making them eligible to be added in Ottoneu leagues. It’s no surprise that the current leader in live auctions right now (he is being added in nearly 60 leagues) is Jack Leiter, who was just added to the Ottoneu player pool Wednesday afternoon. Henry Davis has been added in more than 10% of leagues. Marcelo Mayer has been added in nearly 7% of leagues. The tough call is what to do with these guys if they are free agents or up for auction in your leagues.

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The Sabermetrics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Bill James

Personal History

Sabermetrics Section

• How has sabermetrics changed over the years?
• What metric is Bill James most proud of creating?
  • Bring your dog to the park day
• Ariel’s suggestion for Bill James’ Runs Created formula
• Undervalued statistics in today’s game
• The best defensive metrics to use
• Closer by Committee in baseball today
• Beating the Shift
• Similarity Scores

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

• Career batting averages – Ariel vs. Bill

Baseball Across the Decades

• Greatest Players of all time
  • Hitter – Babe Ruth
  • Pitcher – Roger Clemens
• How would Babe Ruth & past baseball players stack up against 2021’s major leaguers?
• Expansion in Baseball

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I won’t claim to know as much about Bitcoin as some of my peers, but I know enough to determine that winning $100K of it would be great. For the more crypto-skeptical baseball fans out there, MLB and their new contest sponsor, FTX, are offering cold, hard cash as an alternative reward for their new promo contest. The challenge? Guess who will hit the longest home run of the rest of the season, the distance in feet of that home run, and the type of home run (solo, 2-run, etc.,). Let’s take a look at the details of the Moon Blast contest and see if our more enlightened way of thinking can help make a prediction.

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The trade deadline is this Friday and could be an absolute banger. It is shaping up to be a seller’s market with a very clear set of buyers and sellers and the latter having some legitimate players to move that could alter the playoff picture substantially. There is understandable excitement related to the players who will be moved, but I want to focus on the holes their departures will open as that can often create some interesting buying opportunities for us in the fantasy realm, often at a discounted price, too. Here are six hitters who could deliver some fantasy upside if a spot opens for them.

Brendan Rodgers/Garrett Hampson | OF/2B, COL – Potential Trade: Trevor Story

Story has to get traded, right? RIGHT?! I would say the Rockies can’t possibly botch it, but we know that’s not true. They’ve shown time and again that they are capable of botching anything. His departure would likely change the fate of two guys (assuming they don’t get a shortstop back in return) as the 2B platoon of Rodgers and Hampson could both become full-timers.

Both are markedly better against lefties, but the extra volume alone can sometimes be enough to drive value, especially for Rockies given their home park. Speaking of, they have a dead even 28-28 home-road split post deadline. Well, technically that’s not 100% true, but I’m thinking more about weekly leagues and standard Sunday pickups so starting next Monday it’s 28-28.

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The Trading Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Fred Zinkie

Strategy Section

Trading

• General Trading Philosophy
• When to look for a trade vs. playing the waiver wire
• Identifying what to trade for, and who to trade on your roster
  • High gradient categories
• How to negotiate trades
  • Should you make offers close to final, or low-ball with room to negotiate?
  • Sending out bad trade offers
  • Taking the time to explain trade offers to others
  • Negotiating with one team alone vs. pitting one team against the other
    • Never divulge trade negotiations directly
• Does standings position matter for trade needs?
  • Decreasing risk / diversifying when you have a lead
  • Increasing risk when far behind
• Fairness of Trades
  • Top teams trading with bottom teams
  • Instituting pay scales throughout the entire standings
  • Reinsurance’s take on fairness in fantasy sports
  • Moving up the league’s trade deadline

Fernando Tatis Jr.

• Were we wrong earlier in the season advocating to trade him?
  • Recap of Tatis trade advice from earlier this season
  • Trust the process, not the results
• Risk comparison to Luis Castillo (underperformance)
• Risk comparison to Adalberto Mondesi (health risk)
• League depth matters

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Every year I start looking for ways to take advantage of trade rumors as a fantasy manager. But, is there actually any reason to? Maybe if a slugger goes from a pitcher-friendly home park to a hitter-friendly home park. Perhaps if a base stealer, who has had his restrictor plates put on while playing for a team that doesn’t steal bases, gets traded to a run happy team. These are the situations that seem easy to identify and are most likely smaller transactions that savvy managers can take advantage of. But what about the big dogs?

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Last week I outlined how I plan for the trade deadline and earlier this week I walked through a points league example. Today, I walk through a roto league example.

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