This is a fun time of year for fantasy prospects. Guys are getting traded left and right, creating conversations about players like Ezequiel Duran who otherwise might have been ignored (0.291% rostered in Ottoneu right now and being auctioned in one league). Those trades are also opening up space for other players to get a shot – might we see Andres Gimenez back in Cleveland soon?

At the same time, the players selected in the draft a few weeks back are starting to sign, making them eligible to be added in Ottoneu leagues. It’s no surprise that the current leader in live auctions right now (he is being added in nearly 60 leagues) is Jack Leiter, who was just added to the Ottoneu player pool Wednesday afternoon. Henry Davis has been added in more than 10% of leagues. Marcelo Mayer has been added in nearly 7% of leagues. The tough call is what to do with these guys if they are free agents or up for auction in your leagues.

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The Sabermetrics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Bill James

Personal History

Sabermetrics Section

• How has sabermetrics changed over the years?
• What metric is Bill James most proud of creating?
  • Bring your dog to the park day
• Ariel’s suggestion for Bill James’ Runs Created formula
• Undervalued statistics in today’s game
• The best defensive metrics to use
• Closer by Committee in baseball today
• Beating the Shift
• Similarity Scores

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

• Career batting averages – Ariel vs. Bill

Baseball Across the Decades

• Greatest Players of all time
  • Hitter – Babe Ruth
  • Pitcher – Roger Clemens
• How would Babe Ruth & past baseball players stack up against 2021’s major leaguers?
• Expansion in Baseball

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I won’t claim to know as much about Bitcoin as some of my peers, but I know enough to determine that winning $100K of it would be great. For the more crypto-skeptical baseball fans out there, MLB and their new contest sponsor, FTX, are offering cold, hard cash as an alternative reward for their new promo contest. The challenge? Guess who will hit the longest home run of the rest of the season, the distance in feet of that home run, and the type of home run (solo, 2-run, etc.,). Let’s take a look at the details of the Moon Blast contest and see if our more enlightened way of thinking can help make a prediction.

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The trade deadline is this Friday and could be an absolute banger. It is shaping up to be a seller’s market with a very clear set of buyers and sellers and the latter having some legitimate players to move that could alter the playoff picture substantially. There is understandable excitement related to the players who will be moved, but I want to focus on the holes their departures will open as that can often create some interesting buying opportunities for us in the fantasy realm, often at a discounted price, too. Here are six hitters who could deliver some fantasy upside if a spot opens for them.

Brendan Rodgers/Garrett Hampson | OF/2B, COL – Potential Trade: Trevor Story

Story has to get traded, right? RIGHT?! I would say the Rockies can’t possibly botch it, but we know that’s not true. They’ve shown time and again that they are capable of botching anything. His departure would likely change the fate of two guys (assuming they don’t get a shortstop back in return) as the 2B platoon of Rodgers and Hampson could both become full-timers.

Both are markedly better against lefties, but the extra volume alone can sometimes be enough to drive value, especially for Rockies given their home park. Speaking of, they have a dead even 28-28 home-road split post deadline. Well, technically that’s not 100% true, but I’m thinking more about weekly leagues and standard Sunday pickups so starting next Monday it’s 28-28.

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The Trading Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Fred Zinkie

Strategy Section

Trading

• General Trading Philosophy
• When to look for a trade vs. playing the waiver wire
• Identifying what to trade for, and who to trade on your roster
  • High gradient categories
• How to negotiate trades
  • Should you make offers close to final, or low-ball with room to negotiate?
  • Sending out bad trade offers
  • Taking the time to explain trade offers to others
  • Negotiating with one team alone vs. pitting one team against the other
    • Never divulge trade negotiations directly
• Does standings position matter for trade needs?
  • Decreasing risk / diversifying when you have a lead
  • Increasing risk when far behind
• Fairness of Trades
  • Top teams trading with bottom teams
  • Instituting pay scales throughout the entire standings
  • Reinsurance’s take on fairness in fantasy sports
  • Moving up the league’s trade deadline

Fernando Tatis Jr.

• Were we wrong earlier in the season advocating to trade him?
  • Recap of Tatis trade advice from earlier this season
  • Trust the process, not the results
• Risk comparison to Luis Castillo (underperformance)
• Risk comparison to Adalberto Mondesi (health risk)
• League depth matters

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Every year I start looking for ways to take advantage of trade rumors as a fantasy manager. But, is there actually any reason to? Maybe if a slugger goes from a pitcher-friendly home park to a hitter-friendly home park. Perhaps if a base stealer, who has had his restrictor plates put on while playing for a team that doesn’t steal bases, gets traded to a run happy team. These are the situations that seem easy to identify and are most likely smaller transactions that savvy managers can take advantage of. But what about the big dogs?

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Last week I outlined how I plan for the trade deadline and earlier this week I walked through a points league example. Today, I walk through a roto league example.

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jerry Blevins, Former Major League Pitcher

Interview

• All-Star Game Uniforms
• Life after baseball
• Jerry Blevins Trivia
• Game planning
  • Pitching to power versus contact batters
• Thoughts on new MLB rule changes
  • 3 Batter Minimum
  • Extra Innings Rule
  • 7 Inning Doubleheaders
• Sticky Substances Ban
• Cheating in Baseball
• Injury counts on the rise
• Progression of baseball analytics throughout Jerry’s career
• Balance of scouting & analytics in baseball
• Pitching against childhood hero, Ken Griffey Jr.
• The Love of Baseball
• Philly Cheasestakes in the visiting clubhouse
• Autograph story – Jeremy Blevins

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Howard Johnson (HoJo), Former Major League All-Star & 2x World Series Champion

Interview

• Life after baseball
• Breakthrough moment of career
• Being on-deck during the infamous Mookie Wilson at-bat of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series
• Ariel’s father asks HoJo a question – Playing different positions
• Analytics in the 1980s
• Analytics during the coaching days
• Davey Johnson / Sparky Anderson as coaches
• HoJo’s closest teamate friends today
• Comeback at age 50 with the Rockland Boulders
• Grandson Tanner Johnson’s accident
  • Please support Tanner by donating to his Go Fund Me account. More details below.
• The 30/30 club
• The Dave Bergman HR game in 1984
• HoJo is 20 in Hebrew!
• Switching uniform number briefly to 44
• Pete Alonso HR Derby winner
• Participating in 2 homerun derbys
• Beating out Barry Bonds & Will Clark for the HR & RBI title in 1991

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Last week, I wrote about Ottoneu trade deadline preparation and promised I would come back with case studies this week: One about a points league and one about a roto league. Today, I’ll take a look at my team in 90% Mental, league 670, which is a SABR Points league.

My team, Fisher Bunnies, is currently in third place and has some serious ground to make up if I am going to win. Determining how likely I am to make that up and what path I can take to do it will help me set my strategy for the trade deadline.

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