Finding Speed on the Wire

With only about six weeks remaining in the regular season and most trade deadlines past, many may be scrounging for stolen bases as we come down the fantasy stretch. Trolling for speed on the wire is always a dicey proposition but even more so than in years past, with teams running less and less, more of a matter of philosophy than necessarily a dearth of talent.

Today, we’re going to look for speed targets according to the quality of the catchers faced, looking at the team whole, as well as the starting parts. ie. How many games will you have a good chance of facing a suspect catcher? Suspect, at least, when it comes to stolen bases and attempts allowed, as well as their rate of catching would-be thieves.

This brings me to my first large caveat: it’s not all the catcher’s fault. Stolen bases can be on the pitcher as much as the catcher but mixing in who is on the mound goes beyond the scope of this piece. When streaming for stolen bases I want my guys to have as many chances as possible of facing a catcher who has been run on a lot and hasn’t been successful at stopping them.

I judged the catchers solely on the results, looking at their percentage of runners caught (as CS%, as well as CS% percentile) and their percentile rank in attempts per nine innings and stolen bases per nine innings. How much are teams running when you’re in the game and how successful are you at stopping them? K.I.S.S.

Looking at the above numbers, my arbitrary hammer identified nine teams for targeting; the ones who give players the best chance on a given night of facing a catcher who has been run on successfully, and/or often in 2021.

Notes:

• Games remaining start from Thursday, August 19th.
• The Chicago teams aren’t as bad as they look now, as Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Contreras are both injured but should return at some point. But until then, they’re rolling with significant downgrades in Robinson Chirinos, Austin Romine, Seby Zavala, and Zack Collins.
• With teams splitting catcher duties, you’re obviously not guaranteed to face the one you want and a few of the teams below have large discrepancies between who you’d rather your guy be facing. ie. You’ll probably want Stassi more than Suzuki, Garver more than Jeffers, etc.
• Again, it’s not all their fault. I’m just playing the odds.

 

 

We’ll start with the two teams who have the best combination of schedule and overall team aggression before quickly checking in on a couple of teams who have a higher number of games against our targeted teams but either don’t steal a lot or lack great options on the wire.

We’ll then finish by leaving teams behind and instead look at some of the individuals who are set up for more speed down the stretch. Or, at least they are in terms of who they’ll be running against, not necessarily how much they themselves have been running. Sometimes chasing speed means throwing darts.

 

Kansas City Royals (19 games vs targets, 2nd in team attempts)

Marching ever closer to mathematical elimination, the Royals may not like winning but they sure do run. Kansas City ranks second in total attempts for the season and first during August. And they might have the most favorable schedule of anyone, at least according to the aforementioned teams that we’re targeting. Besides series against each of the Chicago teams, the Royals get six games against the Twins, with at least some of those being manned by Mitch Garver and his 13% CS% (16th percentile), as well as seven against Seattle and their trio of bad.

Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS (Yahoo: 5%)

371 PA: 15-for-15 SB, 2nd Half: 7-for-7 SB

Stealing two more bases on Wednesday night after stealing three on Monday, Lopez is now a perfect 15-for-15 on the season. While the three on Monday came against Jason Castro (18 SB against, 0 CS), the two on Monday both came against Martin Maldonaldo who had a 35% CS% entering the game that was in the 83rd percentile and who was in the 93rd percentile for attempts against.

Whether Lopez is actually a good hitter remains to be seen but he’s hitting for now and getting on base enough to take advantage of his above-average speed and the Royals’ proclivity to run. And with Kansas City facing the Cubs (and at least a little Robinson Chirinos) this weekend, now is as good of a time as any to try and snag some quick bags.

Michael A. Taylor, OF (Yahoo: 9%)

394 PA: 10-for-14 SB, 2nd Half: 4-for-5 SB

It’s hard to advocate for someone who is basically a replacement-level hitter and is slashing .225/.297/.326 in the second half. But Taylor gets the same schedule bump as the rest of the Royals and has three stolen bases in his last 11 games (though none in his past six). You could do worse, I guess?

 

Cleveland Guardians (18 games vs targets, 7th in team attempts)

Cleveland rocks but they also run, currently placing seventh in total attempts and are running even more lately, ranking second so far in August. They have series against the White Sox, Yankees, and Angels, as well as seven remaining games with Minnesota,

Bradley Zimmer, OF (Yahoo: 2%)

215 PA: 10-for-12 SB, 2nd Half: 5-for-6 SB

He’s going to sit some against LHP – as he should, given a .258 wOBA, compared to a .353 wOBA vs RHP – but Zimmer is quietly having a successful (and thievey) second half. Over 98 PA, Zimmer is slashing .284/.347/.500 since the All-Star break and has stolen five bases in six attempts, including two in the past three games versus Minnesota.

In addition to seven more games against the Twins, Zimmer will also face the Yankees and Angels thrice each, as well as five games against the White Sox – although, those come late in the season when a presumably healthy Yasmani Grandal has taken over for the Zavala/Collins combo.

Myles Straw, OF (Yahoo: 44%)

455 PA: 21-for-26 SB, 2nd Half: 8-for-8 SB

With elite speed and 21 SB, Straw is the speedster you probably already know about but who is somehow still below 50% rostered on Yahoo, even in a speed-thirsty world. Since being traded from Houston, Straw has led off in 15-of-17 games that he’s started and is slashing .289/.365/.408 over 85 PA, with four stolen bases in four attempts. If you need speed there are few good reasons to leave Straw on your wire.

Amed Rosario, SS/OF (Yahoo: 44%)

454 PA: 12-for-12 SB, 2nd Half: 4-for-4 sB

It looks like we’re in another upslope in our neverending game of “Is? Amed? Rosario? Good!”, with Rosario posting a .365 wOBA in August and a .346 wOBA in the second half, slashing .323/.345/.469 over 139 PA.  For those not familiar with how the game is played, it goes a little something like this:

We go up, we go down, we just keep riding this Rosario rollercoaster of love. But we’re on the upswing right now and as noted, Cleveland likes to run and shouldn’t have any reasons to stop. Rosario will continue to rack up PAs, hitting second every day, and gets 18 games against teams with suspect speed defenses.

Andrés Giménez, 2B/SS (Yahoo: 18%)

117 PA: 6-for-6 SB, 2nd Half: 2-for-2 sB

You know the story of Giménez in 2021; he was terrible in his audition as Cleveland’s starting shortstop, slashing .171/.220/.303 over his first 83 PA, with a .228 wOBA but then raked in the minors, hitting 10 HR and 8 SB in 52 games, slashing .287/.342/.502, with a .364 wOBA.

The hits still haven’t come since Giménez’s return to the bigs on August 8th, with a .167 AVG over his first 32 PA but at least his newfound plate discipline is a welcome sight. He has an 18.8% BB% and 3.1% K% in his return, after running a 3.5% BB% and 29.4% K% over his first stint.

The passiveness won’t serve him elsewhere for fantasy but any walk is a good walk when you roster Giménez for speed, given his top-15% sprint speed and overall success rate.

Oscar Mercado, OF (Yahoo: 1%)

131 PA: 5-for-6 SB, 2nd Half: 3-for-4 SB

For the truly desperate, there is always Mercado, who doesn’t really contribute anywhere but does have three stolen bases in his past 20 games and has an SB per-PA rate in the 92nd percentile. Unfortunately, as alluded to, he can’t really hit, with a .191 AVG and .252 wOBA in the second half and a slightly less terrible .215 AVG and .280 wOBA for the year.

But desperation is a stinky cologne and on a team that likes to run like Cleveland, you might be forced into splashing on some Mercado, by Oscar.

 

Oakland Athletics (20 games vs targets, 13th in team attempts)

Oakland gets 20 games against our targeted teams, with an impressive nine against the trio in Seattle but are more middle of the pack in terms of stealing, ranking 13th overall. Elvis Andrus is available but only has two stolen bases in the second half after stealing eight in the first half. Josh Harrison is much more appealing in terms of his overall value, giving a little bit of everything. But Harrison also has two stolen bases in three attempts in his 11 games since being traded to Oakland, after attempting just seven in his 90 games with Washington.

San Francisco Giants (19 games vs targets, 21st in team attempts)

The Giants get 19 games against our targeted teams, with 10 against San Diego, six against Atlanta, and three against the Cubs – although Wilson Contreras will likely be back from injury by the time that series happens in mid-September.

San Francisco only ranks 20th in total attempts this season and playing any of their guys that you’ll typically find on the wire is a dangerous game unless your league has daily moves. Austin Slater is the go-to usual suspect for speed on the wire. Or, at least, he used to be; Slater only has two stolen bases (on two attempts) since June 1st.

Los Angeles Angels (17 games vs targets, 14th in team attempts)

The Angels are middle of the pack in aggressiveness (15th in attempts) but have sped more in August, coming in at 4th for the partial month and have 17 games against our targeted teams. The increase in attempts hasn’t come as much from guys available on the wire but Brandon Marsh is sneaky fast (84th percentile in sprint speed) and has two stolen bases in his last nine games, with 11 hits in 34 PA. And the allure of Jo Adell is also around. He only has one stolen base in two attempts through his first 15 games in the majors but has a 28.9 sprint spd that’s in the 96th percentile.

 

Other Players With Favorable Schedules

Miguel Rojas, SS, MIA (Yahoo: 24%)

394 PA: 11-for-12 SB, 2nd Half: 5-for-5 SB

Rojas is proving again that completely recovering from finger injuries can sometimes prove troublesome even after you’re healthy enough to return. Returning from the IL on June 18 after dislocating his finger on May 27, Rojas struggled in his subsequent 20 games before the All-Star break, slashing  .222/.250/.284 over 84 PA. But in his 29 games and 118 PA since the break, Rojas is slashing .307/.350/.456, with five stolen bases on five attempts, and is back to hitting first or second in most games.

The Marlins have been running all year and Rojas is now 5-for-5 in thefts for the second half. His batting average and runs potential already give him a high floor ROS but getting three games against Atlanta and nine games against the Nationals could also give him a bonus bump of speed.

Jorge Mateo, OF, BAL (Yahoo: 2%)

136 PA: 8-for-9 SB, 2nd Half: 5-for-6 SB

With Ryan Mountcastle activated from the IL, it looked like Mateo might be right back to a part-time role after starting 11 games in a row. But he got the start in left field on Wednesday night and again at second base on Thursday afternoon. Mateo had performed well over that starting stretch heading into Wednesday’s game (where he’s gone 2-for-3 with a double through seven innings), slashing .326/.340/.478  and stealing three bases on four attempts.

If he hits well enough to stay in the lineup, Mateo (with his 100th percentile sprint speed) and the Orioles have six games against the Yankees, three against Atlanta, and three against the Angels. Baltimore only ranks 22nd in stolen base attempts but as mathematical elimination looms closer on the horizon, perhaps they’ll salvage some fun by letting them run.

Jarren Duran, OF, BOS (Yahoo: 14%)

84 PA: 1-for-2 SB, 2nd Half: 1-for-2 SB

You’re definitely betting on the come-up with Duran, as he hasn’t really hit or run at the start of his major league career, slashing .222/.238/.370, with a .257 wOBA over his first 84 PA, with one stolen base in two attempts. But August has been a little kinder, with the Boston rookie slashing .286/.286/.429, with a .304 wOBA over 42 PA. Not exactly world-beating but at least it’s an improvement.

It hasn’t shown up yet but we know the speed potential exists, as Duran stole 12 bases in 219 PA in Triple-A this season and had 46 SB across two levels in 2019. Whether he gets on base enough to actualize it this year remains to be seen but Boston has a fertile schedule for doing so, facing our noted teams 16 times over the rest of the season.

Rafael Ortega, OF, CHC (Yahoo: 48%)

181 PA: 7-for-12 SB, 2nd Half: 5-for-8

Ortega is fleeing more and more waiver wires but he’s still available in ~50% of Yahoo leagues, even as he continues to be a revelation in the second half, slashing .390/.450/.600, with a .446 wOBA and 180 wRC+ over 111 PA. While he hasn’t attempted a theft in his last eight games and only gets seven games against our noted teams (3 vs CHW, 4 vs MIN), Ortega has been playing well enough to earn a rostering, regardless of your speed needs.

Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF, COL (Yahoo: 32%)

377 PA: 14-for-18 SB, 2nd Half: 1-for-2 SB

The Rockies are 10th in stolen base attempts this season and have 15 games remaining against our targeted teams. Hampson obviously has elite speed but unfortunately, he never really hits well enough to stay in the starting lineup. Even with Raimel Tapia and Yonathan Daza on the IL, it’s Connor Joe getting the full-time action, with Hampson and Hilliard rotating; two of Hampson’s last three starts have come against RHP, while Hilliard’s last two have been split at one each. I’ve never been much of a believer but when you’re desperate, you might as well go with the fast guy who plays at Coors.