The Chicago Cubs have a pretty good, young third baseman named Kris Bryant. You may have heard of him. He has two MLB seasons under his belt and his awards shelf already has both a Rookie of the Year and a MVP award.

The club also has one of the top third base prospects in the game in Jeimer Candelario, who is beginning his second year in triple-A. Last season, he hit .333/.417/.542 in 76 games. So far this year, he’s hitting .308/.410/.692 in his first 15 games. And he’s not a recent pop-up prospect, either. He’s been on prospect radars since 2012 when he hit well as a teenager during his North American debut. Inconsistencies, though, plagued Candelario throughout much of his career and as recently as 2016 when he opened the year by hitting just .219 with a .690 OPS in double-A before earning a challenge-promotion to triple-A where he hit much better and saw his OPS jump almost .300 points.

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Spring Training Velocity Extravaganza

After my Tout Wars weekend, I found time to update the spring training velocities. Here are some pitchers seeing significant changes.

Cole Hamels

Hamels’s fastball average 91.5 mph on the 21st and down to 90.8 mph on the 26th. Last season it averaged 92.6 mph. I would be diving in more on Hamels but his velocity starts low every season.

While he starts slow, owners should closely monitor his velocity to make sure it starts ticking up.

Jake Arrieta

I am less optimistic on Arrieta. He is seeing a similar drop in velocity to Hamels at ~2.0 mph.

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Quick looks

3/15 games

I had full game information and write-ups on each of the following three pitchers but my computer did a restart and the information was lost. Here are the condensed versions from what I remember.

• Lucas Giolito: He was a mess. His velocity is still down from his minor league reports by about 3 mph. He couldn’t throw his curveball near the strike zone. He only lasted 2/3rds of an inning with his replacement, Chris Beck, showing more promise. I am not rostering Giolito in any redraft league and recently traded Giolito for Reynaldo Lopez and Curtis Granderson in an industry 20-team dynasty league.
• James Paxton: Looked similar to 2016. No issues here.
• Cody Reed: Not ownable in redraft leagues. He throws, not pitches, with a low 3/4 arm angle which is devastating to lefties but righties can tee off on him (.131 ISO vs LHH, .385 ISO vs RHH in ‘16). Also, he can’t throw is his change for strikes (35% Zone%), so he will have issues keeping righties from waiting on the fastball. Now, if he can get ahead, his two breaking pitches, change and slider, can get some swings-and-misses so he’ll get some strikeouts. I can see the pieces which have scouts hoping but he has not put them together yet.

3/16 games Read the rest of this entry »

While Saves matter little in real baseball, they’re a still a common category in Roto leagues. Owners have taken several draft day approaches to acquiring Saves. Some owners get at least two elite guys. Others scrape the bottom of the barrel. A few ignore them completely on draft day and get Saves off the waiver wire. Or the owners just ignore the category. The reason to ignore Saves on draft day is the highly perceived closer turnover rate. But what is the rate? That is what I want to answer over the next couple weeks as I collect and verify information on previous preseason closer expectations and how the expectations worked out.

The main roadblock from getting the analysis done is good information. At my advanced age, my memory isn’t great, so I will ask for some help from our readers. I have gone through the player updates from RotoWire (available on each of FanGraphs player pages) to see how long each preseason closer last in the role. Can you please check my work to see if I am right, especially where I have question marks?

Once the data has been verified correct, I will go back and crunch the numbers for some historical numbers.

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My Tout Wars prep continues. I have already examined the league’s historical aspects which I have used to create initial auction values and a draft outline. With the initial projections out of the way, I am refining them. One step in this process is to find the replacement level player and adjust players who will miss time accordingly.

The concept behind the replacement level player is fairly simple. If a good player is expected to miss significant time, his fantasy value is based on just the games he is expected to play. For the games he misses, some lesser player (replacement level player) will fill. The better player’s total value will be both his and the replacement player’s contribution.

For example, I don’t expect Yoan Moncada to get called any earlier than the Super Two deadline around June 1st. For the months he’s in the minors, a less talent replacement level player will be subbing in for him. The same idea works with pitchers. Tyson Ross is expected to miss at least a couple of months so a replacement is needed until he gets healthy.

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My fellow RotoGraph writers and I have started compiling our preseason position rankings. My initial rankings are projection based and then I adjust them as I see fit. I found several rankings/projections where the industry and I disagree. I am going to dig into three of those players today with more to come.

Freddie Freeman: Disputed Projection

Tenth? Really? I didn’t expect Freeman that low. Depth Chart based SGP values place him out as the tenth first baseman. At NFBC, he is the 6th first baseman which is near my gut based ranking. Additionally, he just went 24th overall in MLB.com’s Fantasy411 slow industry draft.

I am fine with the six players ahead of him (Goldy, Rizzo, Cabrera, Votto, E5, and Bryant). Then my gut disagrees and I am pretty sure some of our readers will also.

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Prospect list season is in full swing. Our Eric Longenhagen is knocking out his team lists. Keith Law has just finished his top 100 and team lists. Baseball America is done with their team rankings and is working on their prospect annual. And MLB.com just released their position rankings and top 100. The MLB.com’s top 100 list intrigues me the most. Since it provides scouting grades, it can be used to project a hitter’s fantasy value.

Earlier this offseason, I had a series on using prospect grades to project MLB talent.  While Field and Arm grades help to keep some players playing, defense doesn’t count in fantasy leagues. By comparing a hitter’s Bat, Power, and Speed grades I was able to come up with an overall 20-80 fantasy grade and projected full season stats. These values aren’t close to the final say in player values. They are just an input to be used with scouting reports, normal projections, and other systems like KATOH. Read the rest of this entry »

So far in my Tout Wars preparation series, I’ve documented the league’s draft tendencies and the stats needed to win. Today, I’ll create the framework for player pricing. Along the way, I will show how there is no position scarcity except with catcher. At least for this league

Completing this step brings the preparation is laborious, but necessary. Once it’s done, I can spend most of my time evaluating players and their projected playing time.

For evaluating players, I utilize the Standings Gain Points (SGP) method. I previously outlined the procedure and it‘s the same method Larry Schechter recommends in his book, Winning Fantasy Baseball. Normally, this procedure is fairly straight forward since I’ve historically used three-year average values. Last year’s offensive explosion complicates the math. With more offense available, home runs, Runs, and RBIs become less important. Predicting 2017’s run scoring environment is impossible so I won’t for now. I feel I need to use a weighted average system with 2016 getting the most weight but I am just not sure how much to weight them. To get the process started, I will use the average standings from 2014 to 2016 for this work.

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Rays traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon

After looking over several factors (e.g. league, park, etc.), the biggest change for Forsythe will be the players surrounding him and his lineup position. Currently, we have the Dodgers projected for 4.6 Runs per games while the Rays are at 4.3 Runs per game. A better offense equates to more plate appearances, Runs, and RBIs.

My one worry is lineup position. In the games he started last year, he always led off. Right now, RosterResource.com has him again leading off. If he struggles, the Dodgers have better lineup replacement options than the Rays did. His value could plummet if moves down, especially to the eighth spot.

As for De Leon’s value, the key will be how many innings he throws. With the Rays not really contending this season, he could spend quite a bit of time in the minors or be up in a couple of weeks. No one knows for sure.

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Quote of the day

“People tell me that, and I’m like, ‘Shut up.’ ” –Trea Turner when asked why he hits so many home runs and doesn’t bunt more.

Quick (Long) Look at Matt Andriese

Andriese intrigues me as a potential sleeper. Historically, he has never been a highly rated prospect when he was a third-round pick out of Clemson. Baseball America ranked him at the Padres 20th rated prospect (50 overall grade) in 2013 and in 2014 he was 15th in their system (50 grade again). Then the Rays traded for him where he fell off the prospect map. From his old Baseball America profiles, he was working on several pitches but nothing stood out. When Kiley McDaniel graded him in 2015, he graded him with future 45’s to 55’s but put his overall grade at 40. No one extolled his virtues when he was finally called up to the majors.

I first noticed him when his 3.30 pERA (ERA based on each pitch’s results) was quite a bit lower than his 4.37 ERA. The per pitch grade had him with a plus change (60 grade), average fastball and curve (50 grade), and below average cutter/slider (45 grade). Additionally, he showed plus-plus control with his 1.8 BB/9 which when combined with his pitch grades put him as a 55-grade (above average) pitcher. Examining his 2015 season, his pitches were graded the same except he was throwing a below average two-seamer and didn’t have as much control.

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