Tout Wars Prep: Replacement Level Players

My Tout Wars prep continues. I have already examined the league’s historical aspects which I have used to create initial auction values and a draft outline. With the initial projections out of the way, I am refining them. One step in this process is to find the replacement level player and adjust players who will miss time accordingly.

The concept behind the replacement level player is fairly simple. If a good player is expected to miss significant time, his fantasy value is based on just the games he is expected to play. For the games he misses, some lesser player (replacement level player) will fill. The better player’s total value will be both his and the replacement player’s contribution.

For example, I don’t expect Yoan Moncada to get called any earlier than the Super Two deadline around June 1st. For the months he’s in the minors, a less talent replacement level player will be subbing in for him. The same idea works with pitchers. Tyson Ross is expected to miss at least a couple of months so a replacement is needed until he gets healthy.

The key to determining replacement level is to understand your league’s roster rules. For Tout Wars, we are only allowed a six-man bench plus unlimited DL slots. Another rule is that if a player is picked up off waivers, he must start that week to limit speculation. For these two reasons, I need to have an idea of both my bench and waiver wire talent levels because I can’t just move players to my bench without starting them first.

The first item I needed to find was how reserve slots were historically utilized. A four-to-two pitcher-hitter mix was the average across the league. This ratio makes sense with teams stockpiling starters for potential matchups and two-start weeks. With the background information out of the way, it’s now time to find the replacement level.

Hitters

With hitters, I will start with the best-unowned players from last season. I found a few top rated players (Freese, Mercer, Kendrick, Zimmerman, Alonso) and got their average projected stats.

Additionally, I went to my own pre-draft values. Knowing teams would take two bench players in the reserve rounds, the next 30 players made up my bench talent level. Finally, I took the next six players after those 30 to make a second composite waiver wire player. Here are the stats for each.

The composite makes sense. The player is not a full-time contributor with disappointing stats across the board. A comparable player from 2016 was Scooter Gennett (58 R, 56 RBI, 14 HR, 8 SB, .317 OBP). With the replacement level known, I just need to follow this procedure I outlined in a previous article to get a composite value.

Pitchers

The process is a little more complex with pitchers because they are split up into starts and relievers. Just like I did with hitters, I tried to find the average pitcher from the real and theoretical waiver wire and theoretical bench. An issue I ran into was that my projections only have enough pitchers for the 60 bench spots fantasy teams will fill with pitchers. No one was left for a theoretical waiver wire. MLB teams are likely to churn through pitchers as they struggle or get injured so more pitchers will get added to the pool, but guessing who is impossible.

Additionally, the size of this league pretty much mandates that every starter is owned. The 30 MLB teams have five starters each for 150 starters. The 15 Tout Wars teams will likely use seven starters for 105 pitchers. They will have another 60 (4*15) filling four bench spots. The league is wanting to roster 165 starters when only 150 are available.  The league size and pitching slots will force the starting waiver wire to be thin to non-existent. As for the relievers, good quality setup men were available but none with a closer’s role.

Here are the replacement level pitchers. I could only find four starters on the real waiver wire (Tomlin, Bettis, C. Anderson, and Kazmir) to make the actual replacement level starter.

The two starters are extremely similar with the exception of those on the waiver had higher ERA’s. Looking for a 2016 comparable, Mike Fiers was the closest with 11 Wins, 134 K, 1.36 WHIP, 4.48 ERA, and 7.2 K/9.

The hunt for Saves can be seen with the relievers. Significantly worse pitchers are on the bench with the hope to get some Saves. Teams are looking for Saves knowing their rate stats will take a hit.

With the above replacement pitchers, I can use my previous work to combine a good pitcher with limited playing time with my replacement level pitcher. This combined value will good pitcher’s new composite value.

I am done prepping the for this league’s specific rules and tendencies. I will be trying to finalize my projections and playing time eistimates until early in March when LABR has their 15-team auction and I will have an idea of how other owners are valuing players.