Help Needed: 2015 & 2016 Closer Roles
While Saves matter little in real baseball, they’re a still a common category in Roto leagues. Owners have taken several draft day approaches to acquiring Saves. Some owners get at least two elite guys. Others scrape the bottom of the barrel. A few ignore them completely on draft day and get Saves off the waiver wire. Or the owners just ignore the category. The reason to ignore Saves on draft day is the highly perceived closer turnover rate. But what is the rate? That is what I want to answer over the next couple weeks as I collect and verify information on previous preseason closer expectations and how the expectations worked out.
The main roadblock from getting the analysis done is good information. At my advanced age, my memory isn’t great, so I will ask for some help from our readers. I have gone through the player updates from RotoWire (available on each of FanGraphs player pages) to see how long each preseason closer last in the role. Can you please check my work to see if I am right, especially where I have question marks?
Once the data has been verified correct, I will go back and crunch the numbers for some historical numbers.
Today, I will need your help in verifying the preseason closer roles from 2015 and 2016. First, here are the terms I used and their meanings.
- One guy – The team announced the closer at the start of spring training.
- Another guy – Someone besides the initially announced closer got the job.
- Competition – The team didn’t announce a set closer and had several players vying for the job.
- Replacement coming – The team’s expected closer was hurt or suspended but was expected to take the job over later.
- Replaced returned – Expected closer returned to the role after being out.
- EOS – End of season
- Traded away – The team traded away the closer
- Traded for – The team trade for a new closer
- Poor performance – The pitcher performed so bad they lost their role.
- Injury – Lost role because of injury
And the data.
| Team | Going into Spring Training | Going into season | (Eventual)Top Guy | Projected Steamer ERA | Last Until | Reason if Replaced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | One guy | One Guy | Huston Street | 3.76 | EOS | none |
| Astros | Competition | One guy | Luke Gregerson | 3.66 | EOS | none |
| Athletics | Competition | Replacement coming | Tyler Clippard | 3.27 | July 27th | Trade away |
| Blue Jays | Competition | One guy | Brett Cecil | 3.11 | June 23rd | Poor performance |
| Braves | One guy | Another guy | Jason Grilli | 2.97 | July 11th | Injury |
| Brewers | One guy | One guy | Francisco Rodriguez | 3.61 | EOS | none |
| Cardinals | One guy | One guy | Trevor Rosenthal | 2.91 | EOS | none |
| Cubs | One guy | One guy | Hector Rondon | 3.33 | June 27th | Poor performance? |
| D-backs | One guy | One guy | Addison Reed | 3.32 | May 15th | Poor performance |
| Dodgers | Competition | Replacement Coming | Chris Hatcher | 3.36 | May 15th | Replacement returned |
| Giants | One guy | One guy | Santiago Casilla | 3.51 | EOS | none |
| Indians | One guy | One guy | Cody Allen | 3.14 | EOS | none |
| Mariners | One guy | One guy | Fernando Rodney | 3.27 | June 28th | Poor performance |
| Marlins | One guy | One guy | Steve Cishek | 3.06 | May 12th | Poor performance |
| Mets | One guy | One guy? | Jenrry Mejia | 3.42 | April 7th | Injury |
| Nationals | One guy | One guy | Drew Storen | 3.43 | July 28th | Traded for |
| Orioles | One guy | One guy | Zach Britton | 3.25 | Sept 22nd | Injury |
| Padres | One guy | Another guy | Craig Kimbrel | 2.17 | EOS | none |
| Phillies | One shit bag | One shit bag | Shit bag | 3.56 | July 28th | Traded away |
| Pirates | One guy | One guy | Mark Melancon | 2.76 | EOS | none |
| Rangers | One guy | One guy | Neftali Feliz | 3.95 | May 17th | Poor performance |
| Rays | One guy | One guy (Replacement coming?) | Brad Boxberger | 2.70 | EOS | none |
| Red Sox | One guy | Replacement Coming | Edward Mujica | 3.96 | April 13th | Replacement returned |
| Reds | One guy | One guy | Aroldis Chapman | 1.63 | EOS | none |
| Rockies | One guy | One guy | LaTroy Hawkins | 4.09 | April 15th | Poor performance |
| Royals | One guy | One guy | Greg Holland | 2.60 | Sept 22nd | Injury |
| Tigers | One guy | One guy | Joe Nathan | 3.81 | April 8th | Injury |
| Twins | One guy | One guy | Glen Perkins | 3.06 | Aug 18th | Injury |
| White Sox | One guy | One guy | David Robertson | 3.03 | EOS | none |
| Yankees | Competition | One guy | Andrew Miller | 2.60 | June 10th | Injury |
| Team | Going into Spring Training | Going into season | (Eventual)Top Guy | Projected Steamer ERA | Last Until | Reason if Replaced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | One guy | One guy | Huston Street | 3.79 | April 28th | Injury |
| Astros | Competition | One guy | Luke Gregerson | 3.31 | June 5th | Poor performance |
| Athletics | Competition | Competition | Ryan Madson | 3.32 | EOS | none |
| Blue Jays | One guy | One guy | Roberto Osuna | 3.19 | EOS | none |
| Braves | Competition | Competition | Arodys Vizcaino | 3.23 | July 15th | Injury |
| Brewers | Competition(?) | One guy | Jeremy Jeffress | 3.46 | August 1st | Traded away |
| Cardinals | One guy | One guy | Trevor Rosenthal | 2.88 | June 25th | Poor performance |
| Cubs | One guy | One guy | Hector Rondon | 3.09 | July 25th | Traded for |
| D-backs | One guy | One guy | Brad Ziegler | 3.41 | July 8th | Trade away |
| Dodgers | One guy | One guy | Kenley Jansen | 2.54 | EOS | none |
| Giants | One guy | One guy | Santiago Casilla | 3.2 | EOS | none |
| Indians | One guy | One guy | Cody Allen | 2.79 | EOS | none |
| Mariners | One guy | One guy | Steve Cishek | 3.9 | August and | Poor performance |
| Marlins | Competition | One guy | A.J. Ramos | 3.46 | August 7th | Injury |
| Mets | One guy | One guy | Jeurys Familia | 3.02 | EOS | none |
| Nationals | One shit bag | One shit bag | Shit bag | 3.6 | July 30th | Traded for |
| Orioles | One guy | One guy | Zach Britton | 2.54 | EOS | none |
| Padres | One guy (?) | One guy | Fernando Rodney | 3.64 | June 30th | Traded Away |
| Phillies | Competition(?) | One guy | Jeanmar Gomez | 4.04 | EOS | none |
| Pirates | One guy | One guy | Mark Melancon | 2.85 | July 30th | Traded Away |
| Rangers | One guy | One guy | Shawn Tolleson | 3.56 | May 18th | Poor performance |
| Rays | One guy | Replacement Coming | Alex Colome | 3.36 | EOS | none |
| Red Sox | One guy | One guy | Craig Kimbrel | 2.7 | July 8th | Injury |
| Reds | Competition | One guy | J.J. Hoover | 3.99 | April 20th | Poor performance |
| Rockies | Competition | One guy | Jake McGee | 3.13 | June 11th | Injury |
| Royals | One guy | One guy | Wade Davis | 2.75 | July 27th | Injury |
| Tigers | One guy | One guy | Francisco Rodriguez | 3.75 | EOS | none |
| Twins | One guy | One guy | Glen Perkins | 3.26 | April 13th | Injury |
| White Sox | One guy | One guy | David Robertson | 2.94 | EOS | none |
| Yankees | Replacement Coming | Replacement Coming | Andrew Miller | 2.4 | May 9th | Replacement returned |
Again, please let me know in the comments how any of the information the following trades is wrong. Hopefully, in a few days, I will be able to knock out the preliminary 2013 and 2014 data and early next week I can start rolling out some conclusions.
Thanks to Jared Cross for the historic Steamer projections
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
As a Nationals fan, your 2016 closer data couldn’t be more accurate.
Is there a reason Papelbon is called “shit bag” yet Familia and Chapman aren’t?
and shit bag is a little… harsh? He’s more a douche bag.
If it’s describing Familia or Chapman, shit bag isn’t harsh enough.
Because ‘Alleged Shitbag’ is too long. Papelbon is an indisputable shitbag.
I am guessing the difference is whether or not someone is an asshole in the context of baseball or not. So Familia and Chapman may be bad people, but mostly off the field. Papelbon may be fine off the field, but he’s an asshole to teammates, opponents, etc.
Not sure that should be the difference, but it is for most fans.
https://archive.org/web
Go here, pick the site you want to check, and set the date to a time during spring training, then a few points later in the year. That’s how I’ve checked things like this in the past. Hope it helps.
The Phillies started out with David Hernandez, who proceeded to blow his first chance on the first day of the season. They then went with Dalier Hinojosa, who then proceeded to blow HIS first chance the next day.
Yes. Phils was a “competition” in 2016. (more like an open audition)
Thanks
IIRC, Philly was indeed a competition in preseason 2016. Gomez was not named the closer going into the season, though.
I feel like Mejia should be listed as “suspended.” Yes, he was injured on April 7th and put on the 15-day DL, but he was then suspended for 80 games on April 11th. I would say it’s possible, even likely, that he’d have had the job after 15 days if not for the suspension.
Thanks
26/60 losing their jobs to injury/performance might be too compelling to ignore, regardless of any analysis.
I look forward to hearing your results.
It was tough not to jump to any conclusions until all the data is complete but just eyeballing the information seems imply quite a bit.
I believe you are correct that it should be Replacement Coming for the Rays in 2015. Boxberger was supposed to be temporary until McGee came back, but he ended up staying in the job.
Also, for what it’s worth (not sure this impacts what you are trying to accomplish), Joel Peralta was really the top guy for the Dodgers in 2015. I don’t think anyone was officially named the primary replacement closer…Hatcher saved the first game, then blew up and Peralta was the guy for 6 weeks until Kenley came back.
Thanks on Peralta
Drew Storen and Osuna were competing for the Jays closer job last spring. Their ADP was basically the same. Which seems crazy in retrospect.
Thanks.
Osuna was announced as closer a couple days before the season
I don’t know if this is helpful, but Santiago Casilla lost the SF job last year sometime in September.
Thanks
Ctrl + F ‘injury’
life is suffering
Courtesy closermonkey.com:
2016:
2015:
I don’t know how helpful this will be, but for the 2014 season I put together this spreadsheet linked below. It’s each team’s closer/first/second from the rotographs bullpen report from that season. Every day of the season is filled in with the names from the most recent report, but I didn’t record the green/yellow/red so there is no way to tell competition vs stable.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByjJ8jYj3Mo2eTBvd0hTQlphWVE/view?usp=sharing
Thanks a ton
This is why deep active pitching staffs and relief wins+holds (including ninth inning holds) is by far the best way to play. Saves are such a ridiculous and outdated category that stop people from actually owning the best overall relief pitchers, statistically.
Brett Cecil lasted only 0.1 innings in 2015. He blew a save on April 8th, and the next day Cecil was the 8th inning man and Miguel Castro got the save, and again on April 12th Cecil got the hold and Castro got the save. It’s a minor detail, but it’s always bothered me how unappreciated Cecil was when he played with us.
Great work Jeff,
I did a bit of an analysis of my own using your data and found something interesting. There’s 15 closers that went into the season as the guy (excluded the replacement coming) with a projected steamer ERA under 3.00. 5 got hurt, 1 was traded away and 1 was poor but in the end 12 of 15 got at least 30 saves and the average was 36 saves.
At this point for 2017, there’s 7 guys that would fit that: Chapman, Britton, Jansen, Diaz, Davis, Melancon and Giles.
The market will make you bleed to roster any of those guys, outside of Davis maybe.
You get what you pay for, I guess.