Archive for Statcast

As we move on to the final stages of this fantasy season, one more splits chart could be beneficial for those looking for streaming options in a playoff run. This chart plots xwOBA vs left-handed pitching (LHP) and right-handed pitching (RHP) on each axis, with filter options for which teams to target depending on their split, with the biggest gap differentials also included. This is done using handedness split data since the break, which now has a big enough sample in its own right while capturing recent form that full-season data would dilute. This piece will identify which handedness offenses struggle with and also look at probable starters up until September 19th, for specific matchups for both pitchers and offenses. Bear in mind this is overall offensive production; there will be specific hitters within lineups that may do well against a certain handedness despite the overall offensive struggles, and vice versa.

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The sweeper seems to be a pitch that has taken on a life of its own over the past few seasons. More horizontal movement generated by sacrificing velocity (generally). But maybe it doesn’t have to be that way. With an average velocity a couple ticks below the traditional slider (85-86 mph), a sweeper usually sits at 82 to 83 mph. But it has become a powerful weapon and a popular pitch to add to pitch arsenals for those looking for an added swing-and-miss pitch.

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Discipline at the plate is often a huge driver for success over the course of a season. From a fantasy perspective, it can be difficult to utilize outside of just an overall gauge for a hitter’s success.

I saw an interesting exchange on plate discipline data relating to zone and outside zone swing percentages as an indicator for a potential breakout. A post highlighting patience as the potential reason behind Pete Crow-Armstrong’s MVP-caliber season noted his O-Swing% is down to a career low 34%. Read the rest of this entry »

Following on from looking at those who have managed to increase the velocity on their four-seamer since the start of the season, it is now time to turn to those losing velocity. Some have not been so fortunate. Whether through wear and tear or potential injuries, these pitchers warrant serious monitoring and potential red flags as we move forward.

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One area that I like to examine for pitchers is their arm angle, which consists of their vertical and horizontal release points. Arm angle is a quick way to see whether a pitcher might have different vertical and horizontal release points that could impact movement. Arm angle tends to correlate best with vertical movement whether it’s without gravity (0.225) or with gravity (-0.258). I tend to look at pitch movement without gravity as induced vertical break, especially on four-seam fastballs. There’s an inverse relationship between arm angle and vertical movement with gravity. That indicates that pitchers with high arm angles can throw pitches with greater downward movement.

I’m working on a way to find correlations between arm angle and horizontal movement since different sites list horizontal movement differently. For instance, Baseball Savant shows inch values with the words arm and glove after the number value. Meanwhile, other sites have negative or positive values, indicating glove- or arm-side movement. My guess would be that arm angle correlates similarly or slightly worse without bucketing by handedness and pitch types. That said, it’s still not that strong of a correlation to vertical movement. 

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In the heat of summer, it is always interesting to track pitchers who have gained velocity and who are losing velocity, and what the impact is on their results. While velocity alone does not guarantee success, meaningful changes often coincide with adjustments in command, pitch quality, or overall effectiveness. Identifying those trends mid-season can be a very useful indicator to see if a pitcher could strengthen as the season goes on or decline. This piece will look at those hopefully strengthening in the summer.

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As we enter the heat of the post-All-Star break summer, it is a natural point for both reflection and action for our fantasy squads moving forward. This chart plots first-half wOBA against OOPSY’s rest-of-season projection (RoS); the pitching chart will be coming soon. It is a useful way to see the discrepancy between how some hitters have performed and what OOPSY expects for the rest of the season, and to discuss why regression is being projected, and in some cases why it isn’t, across the league.

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Building on the bat speed piece from last week, I wanted to explore some deep-cut young finds based on swing length, blast contact rates, and all the rest. It turns out that if you swing fast, swing fast often, and make consistent contact, you are already highly valued, not just in fantasy but in baseball. Sorting these different metrics gives you a pretty similar list of names at the top of a chart.

For the first piece, I intentionally stuck to bat tracking metrics as much as possible, rather than outcomes, to compare the mechanical profiles of young hitters and to see whether we can use that on its own to predict future success. The problem is that the swing data on its own cannot tell the difference between an MVP candidate and a prospect who has been overmatched. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits in the same neighborhood as Marcelo Mayer, and no amount of bat speed or blast rate separates them.

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Right now, the Major League level seems about as full of young talent as it ever has been. High-profile prospects are more prepared than ever to make the leap, skipping past the slow grind of the minor leagues to make an immediate impact at the big-league level. This season, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt have proven it: the former made the All-Star roster, and the latter absolutely should have been included.

Of course, bat speed is not a guarantee of success. The two examples I gave, McGonigle and Wetherholt, have both had great success without elite bat speed, sitting right around league average in the metric. But as indicators go, it can be a useful one. As we can see from the top end of this chart, bat speed can give you a strong platform to build on.

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Writing about red hot chili players can be fun. When an otherwise mediocre Curtis Mead starts slamming the ball, that is objectively entertaining. Especially for the fantasy manager, players who are far exceeding their draft price or FAAB cost just give us a bit of extra enjoyment when they perform well. 

Junior Caminero is certainly red hot. And considering the 45 home runs he hit last year, in his first full season, which he finished as a 22-year-old, this really shouldn’t be a surprise.

Sure, the fact that he’s hit bombs in six consecutive games, and that the stretch in question started with a three-homer game, is wildly impressive. But it’s easy to forget there were some who doubted the phenom third baseman. 

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