xwOBA Split Matchups for the Fantasy Playoffs

As we move on to the final stages of this fantasy season, one more splits chart could be beneficial for those looking for streaming options in a playoff run. This chart plots xwOBA vs left-handed pitching (LHP) and right-handed pitching (RHP) on each axis, with filter options for which teams to target depending on their split, with the biggest gap differentials also included. This is done using handedness split data since the break, which now has a big enough sample in its own right while capturing recent form that full-season data would dilute. This piece will identify which handedness offenses struggle with and also look at probable starters up until September 19th, for specific matchups for both pitchers and offenses. Bear in mind this is overall offensive production; there will be specific hitters within lineups that may do well against a certain handedness despite the overall offensive struggles, and vice versa.

Southpaw Struggles

Kansas City Royals offense has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, and that does not bode well if you have any Royal bats. With Tolle and Suarez in the next two at Boston, it does clear up after that with a nice run of right-handers, but I would bench them if possible in the next couple. The Pittsburgh Pirates have the lowest xwOBA against left-handers since the break. They’re not much better against right-handers either. They are up against two Chicago southpaws, who conversely have great matchups if you own Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd this weekend, and Noah Cameron is projected to start next weekend for the Royals.

The Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays both have a .286 xwOBA against left-handed pitching and face five lefties in the next week or so. The Reds have matchups against the Brewers, Dodgers, and Cubs, all with multiple left-handers in their rotation, making it worth sitting Reds bats where possible and picking up or starting the lefties facing them. Tampa Bay, despite their strong record, has similar struggles and faces off against the Athletics and Boston, with the likes of Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, Brady Basso, Jeffrey Springs, and Martin Perez, all scheduled to face a lineup that struggled against lefties. The Athletics are a great matchup for Joey Cantillo owners, given their .285 xwOBA split, but they manage to avoid lefties for the most part; as with any of these teams, any left-handed relievers are good to start.

The Seattle Mariners, who were the biggest strugglers earlier in the season against lefties, never found the answer. In fact, they simply regressed against righties as well, which has brought them to the bottom of the pack against both splits. With series against the Athletics and Angels, their bats could continue to struggle with not much to play for now at this point of the season; Jeffrey Springs, Gage Jump, Jacob Lopez, Reid Detmers, and Yusei Kikuchi will all be looking to rack up fantasy points against one of the most disappointing lineups in 2026.

Offenses to Target vs RHP

On the other side of the splits spectrum, it is the Texas Rangers that have struggled the most as an offense against right-handed pitchers and actually have the biggest differential gap in the league between the two splits, -.051. They will face six right-handed pitchers in the next ten: Sonny Gray, Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, Logan Gilbert, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt. However, given the xwOBA against LHP, there is still reason to hold fringe Ranger bats; they also have three lefty matchups in there against Eduardo Rodriguez, Patrick Sandoval, and Jake Bennett. Those three lefty matchups are windows to start Rangers hitters before the right-handed schedule drags them back down.

Staying in the AL West (seems to be a theme here of poor offenses to target), the Los Angeles Angels post a .281 xwOBA against right-handed pitching since the break, the second-worst mark in baseball, and they aren’t much better against lefties at .289. This week, they face seven right-handers: Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Cade Cavalli, and Jake Irvin, one of the heaviest right-handed schedules in the league.

Target Offenses

The San Diego Padres’ .346 xwOBA against right-handed pitching is the highest mark from any team in baseball since the break, paired with still a very respectable .314 against lefties, and they are one of the hottest teams in baseball offensively, winning six of their last ten. Seven of their next nine are against righties, including a four-game set against the Rockies in Colorado, three against the Giants, before hosting the Marlins. A soft run with Tyler Phillips, Ryan Feltner, Tanner Gordon, and Tomoyuki Sugano all on the schedule, expect the Padres’ offensive production to continue.

Another offensive powerhouse, on the other side of the split, is the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia posts a .336 xwOBA against left-handed pitching, the highest in the dataset, and they face three lefties this week: Chris Sale, Zac Thornton, and Jackson Kent. While Sale is not one to be targeted, Kent has an ERA of 5.55; Thornton is coming off the back of giving up six runs on seven hits, four of which were home runs. Their six right-handed matchups also include some targetable pitchers, including Tyler Mahle and Cristian Javier, whose ERA is 5.98. Stack Philly hitters across the board.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs are two offenses that are matchup-proof. More interestingly, the St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles, and an Aaron Judge-less New York Yankees are still putting up great numbers against both splits. The Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals, and the New York Mets, who were among the worst offenses in baseball in the first half, are also putting up above .300 xwOBA against both splits, making them offenses to target regardless of pitcher handedness.

With the fantasy playoffs approaching, these splits can become increasingly useful for daily lineup decisions and streaming, with marginal gains needed to get an edge. Cross-referencing them with the probables grid each week can provide even a small advantage in a close matchup.