5/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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**JOIN THE NFBC MEMORIAL DAY 2ND CHANCE LEAGUES**

• Houston (2:05)
• Kansas City (22:20)
• LA Angels (26:53)
• LA Dodgers (40:22)
• Miami (59:33)

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Last Thursday, I identified nine starting pitchers whose Statcast xwOBA marks were significantly better than their actual wOBA marks, suggesting improved results over the rest of the season. Today, let’s discuss the guys who have been the most fortunate according to xwOBA.

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While I use the Statcast hitting leaderboards and metrics often, I rarely do for pitchers. I think it’s because there has been much less research performed and shared on the explanatory and predictive powers of the metrics. So I’ve just stuck with underlying skills, SIERA, and my xK% and xBB% metrics. I’m not here to run a study, but figured it was still worth diving into the xwOBA to try uncovering some pitchers likely to improve over the rest of the season.

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5/15/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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• @sporer – Host

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ROTATION CHECK-INS BY TEAM

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Introduction

I made the following controversial proclamation earlier this year – that Chris Archer is highly overvalued by fantasy owners. I go even further to say that in all but deep mixed leagues and mono leagues – continually rostering the right hander would be a poor use of fantasy resources.

My contention with Archer’s value stems from his ratio stats:

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5/10/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

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Fireside Chat

• Yu Darvish (1:55)
• Joe Musgrove (13:15)

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I’ve been writing some variant of this pitcher transformation article from the beginning of spring training containing information from spring training velocities to pitch mix changes. With a new pitch or extra velocity, a pitcher can quickly change from one talent level to another. With the season now in full gear, the major preseason changes are known but now it’s time to start finding those pitchers who are slowly transforming themselves mid-season. Every week I hope to focus on these pitchers.

David Price

The 33-year-old Price continues to be a fastball/changeup pitcher. He keeps hitters off guard by throwing three different fastballs (cutter, sinker, four-seam). As his velocity has dropped, he’s started relying on his changeup increasing its usage from 14% in 2017 to 22% last year and finally 29% this year. The pitch has been dynamite with a 21% SwStr% and helped propel his strikeout rate from a 9.1 K/9 last year to career-high 10.5 K/9 this season. He’s pulling the old-man trick of throwing his non-fastballs more to stay relevant.

Rant: I’m not sure why pitchers wait until they start declining to make the change. Why not make the change immediately and become an ace.

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Lucas Giolito is just 24 years old. It might seem like he’s older due an effect called “prospect fatigue” as he’s been in the baseball consciousness since being drafted back in 2012. He went 16th overall to the Washington Nationals thanks to concerns about his elbow that eventually led to Tommy John surgery. He cruised through the low minors and soared up prospect lists, eventually landing top 5 before his MLB debut in 2016. He sputtered through 21 innings as a 21-year old and was subsequently dealt that winter with Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning for Adam Eaton. His prospect stock fell a bit on the heels of the ugly debut, but he was still a solid top 25 prospect as he joined the Chicago White Sox.

It these last three years with the White Sox where the fatigue has set in. A modest full season effort in Triple-A gave way to a positive seven-start run to cap off 2017, though the skills didn’t marry well with the 2.38 ERA/0.95 WHIP combo. A brutal 2018 (6.13 ERA/1.48 WHIP) left him as an afterthought on the fantasy landscape coming into 2019, but now he’s worth a closer look. He opened his season with a gem against the Royals, followed quickly by a pair of four-walk efforts that fueled nine runs allowed in 9.3 innings. He was dealing again versus the Royals in his fourth start before a hamstring injury cut him down and led to a two-week IL stint.

That brings us to the intriguing portion of this young season.

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After a 2018 breakout season, Kyle Freeland gave us a lot to be confused about on draft day. As a rookie in 2017, Freeland defied conventional wisdom about Rockies pitchers, posting a lower-than-average HR/FB ratio at Coors Field (10.3 percent), and then he did it again last season (12.6 percent). He even took a relatively modest 92.0 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD) at home and lowered it to 91.2 mph. While Freeland had been especially effective at limiting homers with his four-seam fastball, last season, he was able to hit another level by getting more whiffs on his cutter.

We owners didn’t know exactly what to do with a pitcher who had consistent success at Coors Field. We didn’t treat him like the top 25 starter that he was in 2018, and for good reason. Skepticism about his home splits aside, Freeland benefited from an 82.8 percent strand rate that he was almost sure to regress from significantly. He had earned enough trust to be among the top 175 players taken overall on average, according to both FantasyPros and NFBC ADP. Even with a lower strand rate on the horizon, Freeland’s 3.67 FIP and 200-plus innings showed the potential value he could have for owners this year. To buy into the FIP and the innings, though, you had to buy into his homer-thwarting abilities.
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On Thursday, I discussed some of the statistical oddities and extremes on the hitter side after a month of play. While we preach not to make rash decisions based on small sample randomness, it’s because it could lead to some really fun, weird, and extreme results. Let’s dive into some of the weird and extreme starting pitcher stats.

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